Let's not be naive. The games without Asik could be much easier than the games with him. Further, without Asik we would have probably gotten swept by the Blazers in the first round. I'm not saying his production can't be 90% covered with Dorsey and an improved D-Mo. But let's not act like Asik isn't an impact player. We raved about him for a year, when he proved to be an elite rim protector, a fantastic teammate and improving on offense. The Hornets were willing to take him off our hands at $15m and gave us an awesome first rounder in return.
Best obtainable addition this offseason was a new HC. Keeping him will likely equal another wasted year.
Similar to if not worse than the Tmac / Yao year. Not close. We have a superstar in Howard. We have an offensive only star in Harden that have mostly been MIA for Hou last two playoff series. We have a coach that get the team to play below their capability and for trailing off toward the end of the season. We have an average bench that got much weaker. Yea, a few pieces here and there will help but I'm not sure they have even the talent to get there with a star that doesn't play defense and hasn't shown up in the playoff with HOU. I'm less confident they have a coach that can get them there.
The bench is the problem. We had plenty of games where it was the bench that helped us win. Without them, our current team is worse than last year's. Last year we were only 6 games away from missing the playoffs. 33% is huge.
Remember when ArizA was brought here as our best player? Our star? the guy to build around? As time goes by, I'm kind've excited about his return, and the exit of Asik and Lin. Ariza won't try to be Kobe-esque on this team anymore, and that'll help so much because his numbers are SO similar to Parsons except that he's miles better defending. Its almost like we didn't lose anyone, but like Parsons stayed and dedicated himself on the D end. We have NO idea how chemistry will play out between the new guys and all, but one thing I do know is no more Asik drama, no more "no" backup center, and no more Lin bs. It sucks, cause I liked the guy, but his mistakes made me want to charge head first into walls. Thing about the amount of wins we could've had with a better wing defender, and no backup drama between C and PG? Hopefully just some consistency will help there! I'm optimistic, although in the end... something will have to be done about McHale. Unless he's about to pull some wizardry out and a magic playbook appears, I just don't know where the discipline and easy buckets come from. Its not that we have a problem scoring, its that we have a problem doing it with team defense locked in... and a problem stopping other teams. Oh well, still a bright future, GO ROCKETS!!!
I think the team needs to shore up in several areas. -Coach. McHale is a decent coach, but I still stand by my original view that he's not a play off caliber Coach. You really need a top 6 or top 8 head coach to not get completely destroyed by the likes of Pops and Carlisle in the play offs. In the regular season it doesn't matter so much, in the play offs the marginal edge of coaching can be a serious difference maker, especially when you're talking the speed of adjustments when recognizing offensive and defensive mismatches, or correcting player errors on the floor. -1 all star level talent and 2-3 above average roleplayers, or no additional all star talents and 5-6 above average role players. You can win with 2 stars and role players, but they need to be really good role players. If you get the all star talent (at the PF/SF or PG position), then you still need 3-4 above average role players on the bench so you don't lose your lead (and hopefully extend it) any time your starters sit. If you don't have that all star talent, then sometimes your starters will get outscored and you'll need the bench support... so you'll need above average role players on the bench to make up the difference. As to the argument of whether we really need another "all star", no we don't. However it is MUCH harder to make up the difference with role players. It's a function of time... an all star talent will be putting up 35+ minutes per game in the play offs typically, so if you have a significant advantage during those starter minutes you'll only need the bench to be passable -- IE, to NOT lose the lead or lose ground during their minutes. If you have a role player covering those 35 minutes, then you need enough bench depth to offset the point differential in the remaining 13-15 minutes of play time. Either you're top heavy (3 stars) and have a mediocre bench, or you're sitting with 2 stars and a stacked bench. I haven't seen many other ways to win outside of anomalies like the Detroit Pistons in the early 2000's. The only reservation I have about building a role player heavy bench is the more you rely on a deeper bench, the better the coaching has to be. Superior talent can overcome coaching deficiencies. Even if you have a sub-par coach, a top end player will still find a way to score. However, maximizing role players requires very strong coaching. It's much harder to tweak a system to get optimal production out of 12 players than 3. Similarly it's harder to keep 12 players motivated and focused at a high level for 82 games and the play off. It's also more difficult to manage player chemistry and roles in terms of walking the line between doing too much or too little. And let's not forget the issue of managing ego's... if you have above average role players, you want them to contribute more but in return you need to grant them minutes and opportunities which usually comes at the cost of the "stars". It takes a very strong coach to get your stars to put the team ahead of their ego's, especially when it costs them stats, minutes and potentially endorsement money and all star appearances. I can see the Rockets getting there in 2 years, but I don't see it this year. And barring some signings it's hard to see them as winning a championship next year. There's just too many great teams with well established chemistry and stable rosters to expect the Rockets to win, especially in the brutal Western Conference.
If we have the same coach with Morey telling him how to run the offense _ it won't matter. The Rockets are a very good regular season team and that's it. They don't play a style of basketball that can get them through the playoffs.
McHale is the coach for foreseeable future so the players have to make up for his shortcomings, especially on D. A defensive minded starter at PF may be all that's needed to change the culture of this Rockets team. Someone like Shawn Marion, not an all-star anymore but still playing quality ball offensively and defensively. Plus he is a vet that even Howard and Harden would listen to especially in crunch time, unlike Ariza.
I think we are a few moves from being a contender and not simply a pretender.... I'm sure there are a ton of scenarios that would get us there, such as signing Marion, acquiring JSmith or either Bledsoe or Goran and then adding one or two minor pieces.... I think gets us into realistic contention... whether it happens this year or next, remains to b seen...
Lets see, We finished 4th last year and lost 3 significant players. I would imagine we would drop a spot or 2 in the standings this year even with Howard and Harden. Unless Bev or Cannan suprise us, our offense is going to be all Harden Hero ball while we struggle to get the ball into Dwight at the right spot. We had problems doing that all season last year and we lost chemistry this year. I don't see much chance of an improvement on that front. People here are knocking Lin and Parsons, but I think we will really miss them next year. Lin can create for himself and others and to a lesser extent so can Parsons. So unless the point guards step up, I see us overplaying Harden just as bad if not worse than last year. I also question Ariza's ability on offense. He had a great year shooting 3's last year but I feel like its more because its a contract year and he played with 2 great penetrating guards in Wall and Beal. If he can keep that up it wont be too bad but overall I see us dropping in offense a little. As for defense. Ariza is a definite upgrade over Parsons, but I don't think Dorsey can keep up with Asik in that department. Also keep in mind that no matter how great the 1v1 defense is it takes great team defense to stop a team like the Spurs. And unfortunately for us, we lost our defensive coach last year. I don't see Harden making huge improvements in playing D either. People say that defense is about effort and James brought zero of that on the defensive end last year. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see it. While its not gonna be doom and gloom like a lot of people are saying. I think we will drop a few spots in the standings next year. I sure hope they prove me wrong tho.
