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[Chances for Success] Since 1989 the odds that a 2nd Round Pick.....

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014.

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  1. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I am pretty bored today at work so I did some research:


    Since the NBA went to a 2 Round format in 1989 for the draft there have been:

    723 2nd Round Draft picks
    13 Players have have made the All-Star team
    0 Hall of Famers

    That puts a simple statistical odd of 1.8% chance that a player drafted in the 2nd Round will make an All-Star team at least once in their life. If you take into account only the past 10 years (2003-2013) the odds shrinks down to 1% chance with only 3 (Mo Williams, Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol) making the All-Star team.

    The average year those 13 players had made the All-Star team is 5.9 years into their careers with Antonio Davis (11 seasons in) being the longest and Michael Redd and Gilbert Arenas tied for being the shortest with 4 seasons each. We throw the extreme values out and we get an average of 4.77 years into their NBA careers.


    The 13 2nd Round All-Stars:
    Cliff Robinson
    Antonio Davis
    Cedric Ceballos
    Nick Van Exel
    Rashard Lewis
    Manu Ginobili
    Michael Redd
    Mehmet Okur
    Gilbert Arenas
    Carlos Boozer
    Mo Williams
    Paul Millsap
    Marc Gasol
     
    #1 steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014
    4 people like this.
  2. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Manu will be in the hall of fame for sure and so will Chandler "Superstar" Parsons.
     
    #2 justtxyank, Jul 16, 2014
  3. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    So you're saying I'm too high on Nick Johnson, right? :grin:

    Seriously, thanks for this. Pretty fascinating ... longer odds than I expected!
     
    #3 B-Bob, Jul 16, 2014
  4. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Only 4 out of those 13 All-Stars have produced at least season with at least 10 Win Shares in their respective careers:

    Gilbert Arenas
    Marc Gasol
    Manu Ginobili
    Michael Redd

    Win shares do have a positive correlation on how much of a "superstar" a player is IMO.
     
    #4 steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014
  5. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    If he does then Morey's supercomputer and servers will come crashing down.
     
    #5 steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014
  6. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I thought it was more frequent but I saw more "2nd Rounders who did not play 1 NBA game" than all-stars.

    If you look at the past THIRTY years there's only been TWO players that have made the HOF that was drafted in the 2nd Round:

    Dennis Rodman
    Drazen Petrovic
     
    #6 steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014
  7. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    How many are perennial allstars? Okur, MoWill, Millsap are like 1 time or 2 time allstars.

    A couple of them were "One Hit Wonders".
     
    #7 daywalker02, Jul 16, 2014
  8. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Gilbert Arenas x3
    Carlos Boozer x2
    Manu Ginobili x2
    Rashard Lewis x2

    everyone else including Gasol is a one-timer.
     
    #8 steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014
  9. Stray_Dog

    Stray_Dog Member

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    Dennis rodman?
     
    #9 Stray_Dog, Jul 16, 2014
  10. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Drafted before 1989.
     
    #10 steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014
  11. Juxtaposed Jolt

    Juxtaposed Jolt Member

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    He's not getting in there because of stats though.

    He's getting in there because he's the best gosh-dang recruiter in the NBA.
     
    #11 Juxtaposed Jolt, Jul 16, 2014
  12. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    What I thought. Parsons has a chance of 1.7% of making it to the Allstar game.

    0.55% of making the ASG more than once

    But he is 100% the Best Recruiter
     
    #12 daywalker02, Jul 16, 2014
  13. Asian Sensation

    Asian Sensation Member

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    Monta Ellis should definitely be on that list because he "hav it all". Half kidding aside, he could've made it a couple times including last year.

    Stephen Jackson Also could've gotten in on a few different occasions. I actually thought he did one year but I double checked and he didn't.
     
    #13 Asian Sensation, Jul 16, 2014
  14. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Ginobili should be treated as a special case. He's one of those "stashed" Euros typical in that era. The Spurs was the first in using the second round to draft great overseas players and stashed them there until they were ready to sign.

    Those guys were picked in the second round not because they were not good enough but because they were perceived to be high risk. Since those day, teams have been putting more scouting effort overseas. Now great players like Ginobili won't fall to the second round.
     
    #14 Easy, Jul 16, 2014
  15. Asian Sensation

    Asian Sensation Member

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    Although the Spurs and Gino may have further influenced the trend... they were far from the pioneers of doing that.

    I can think of a few off the top of my head that are way old school such as Arvydas Sabonis and Drazen Petrovic. Kucok and Peja are a couple others as well. I'm sure there are plenty more.
     
    #15 Asian Sensation, Jul 16, 2014
  16. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    That's true but the other side of that equation also see GMs stupidly picking hyped up international players way too early and passing up on players that ended up being better.
     
    #16 steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014
  17. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Point taken. I should have said they were one of the first.

    However, IIRC, the Spurs were the first that used the strategy extensively until every other team started to pay attention and those Euro stars no longer dropped to the second round.
     
    #17 Easy, Jul 16, 2014
  18. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Actually, the same can be said about high schoolers. Kobe would have been drafted much higher if he were born a few years later.

    Then it turned to the other extreme and players like Kwame Brown got picked #1.
     
    #18 Easy, Jul 16, 2014
  19. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Maybe it's time for me to delve into the number of international busts and stars for my next thread lol
     
    #19 steddinotayto, Jul 16, 2014
  20. Asian Sensation

    Asian Sensation Member

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    Ain't nobody got time fo dat!
     
    #20 Asian Sensation, Jul 16, 2014
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