The Van Gundy Factor

It is easy and interesting to speculate about the effect Jeff Van Gundy will have on the Rockets as a whole, or upon team concepts in general, but I thought it might make for a worthwhile discussion to debate the effect he will have upon significant individuals on the team. I realize that a few of these have been covered individually, but I wanted to look at it comprehensively. Here goes...

Steve Francis

Among the more interesting areas of speculation. What will be the effect of JVG on The Franchise? Well, for starters, he's not, historically speaking, Van Gundy's kind of player at all. His greatest weakness, defense, is the area JVG stresses above all else. For that reason alone I feel it unlikely that Van Gundy will experiment with moving Steve to the 2, as the effect of that would be to emphasize that weakness. What he will do is design schmes which cover some of Francis' weaknesses on defense. He will probably often use a box and one or rotating G-Town defensive triangle...the idea being to get Francis and others to funnel the opponent's perim players penetration towards Yao or Cato in the middle. Ididividually they play up on their opponent and cheat towards the side which, if taken, takes the offensive player to whichever pre-arranged area of interception the guard and Yao have arranged, baseline, middle, etc...meanwhile the other big man, say Eddie, seals off the passing lane opening up between Yao's man and the guy with the ball; basically plays free safety covering the interior passing lanes for the crucial moment of decision.

This kind of defensive scheme relies of communication, trust, and a very significant help defender in the middle. We have one of three, JVG will seek to install the other two. Francis will have to work and think on defense, but will not be asked to do something; ie be a shut down perim defender, that he is incapable of doing.

Offensively, it is all extremely speculative. JVG has said repeatedly that, were he the Rockets coach, he would run the offense through Yao. Now whether he will actually do this, how he will do this, and what effect this will have on Steve is interesting but highly unpredictable. If I had to hazzard a guess, I sggest that he will allof Steve a pretty open hand on break offense, running off the turnovers the defensive sheme is designed to create, etc...but in the halfcourt I expect less of a dominat role. Probably haflcourt initation, and a yellow to green light ( depending on opposition) if he sees a favorable iso option, and/or the other option breaks down, but I would have to think it will be a lot more of starting the roatation and running through screens to come open as an inside out ption, or off of interior passes as we already saw last season.

If JVG sticks to his guns regarding Yao, the days of Steve walking the ball up, doing some calesthenics at haflcourt, and poking and prodding the defense with dribble penetration looking for an opening are probably long gone, at least as a featured part of the offense. Steve might get as many or more fga/game in the new 1/2 court offense, but not nbearly so much control. How he takes to that system remains to be seen, but JVG has a decent, if not extreme rep, so it's likely that francis will initially try to adapt. The telling period will be during the 1st period of extended offensive ineffectivness. If Steve bails on the system and reverts to iso offense as a means of getting the team out of it's doldrums, we could be in for a long year..

Cuttino Mobley

This is a very hard call...possibilites range from Cuttino being gone to Cuttino flourishing under JVG. I wouldn't want to take bets either way.

Cuttino is certainly the kind of player who could really grow under JVG...He has the physical abilites to really improve defensively, as was partially evident last year...what he lacks is consitent commitment, and understanding of defense. JVG will epect both, particularly if, as already mentioned, he will be looking to camouflage Francis' defensive shortcomings on D...Mobley will also be somewhat protected by the scheme, but given less leeway, and probably expected to be a recovery defender a lot more than Steve. As such, he could find a role as a defensive hustler, outsode/inside shooter/slasher off the inside game...but JVG will not, under any circumstances tolerate the kind of wastes of posession Mobley has become famous for.

JVG tends to slow the game down, raising the premium on each and every possession...If Mobes reverts to jacking up ill advised shots, JVG will sit him or ask for him to be traded, period. If Mobes allows the game to come to him, through Yao 1st and Steve 2nd, he could be a very effective player. Big ifs...and the compromise could see the much bally-hooed move of Cat to 6th man, where he could be more about injecting offense,and put into play when the system is sagging, hence his tendancy to take away from the system would be less of a negative factor. We might well see a starting 5 of Steve, Posey, Morris, Griffin and Yao...with variations, and Cat coming off the bench.

James Posey

Assuming he returns, Posey should thrive. He might play 2 alot more, but he will play a lot. He will have to avoid the nights where he decides he's Michael Jordan, but other than that if he brings what he's always brought, JVG will ink him in the lineup and worry about other things. Posey will hustle on D, be it part of a funnel or as a rover, will fill the lanes on breaks, and take a secondary role on offense, feeding off of what Yao and Steve create individually. I really see very little downside to the JVG term for Posey...assuming a new contract neither relaxes him, or goes to his head. He may even be a 2nd or 3rd initiatior for the 1/2 cour offense, especially on playes designed to get Steve coming off of a thicket.

Eddie Griffin


Interesting. I have seen speculation across the board, from Eddie has to go, because JVG won't play him, to JVG will be the making of Eddie Griffin. Either could be true...I certainly don't think it will be a smooth ride; JVG has historically prioritized veterans. BUT, it should be noted, JVG, unlike Riley, has never been a Show Me! kind of guy...he doesn't demand outward expression of effort. H demands effort, but not demonstrative effort that seems alien to Griff's makeup. JVG also prioritizes defense, and his schme should and probably will emphasize help defenders on the inside, which Griff is.

The make or break factor for Griff is, IMO, does he build up enough to make teams pay the rpice for coming right at him as an interior defender, thereby not letting him help at all. If he comes off the break with an added 10-15 lbs of muscle, it could be amazing...if h comes back essentially the same, groan. JVG will not allow black holes not named Francis on defense, and the system will already be designed to cover up for Steve...Yao cannot cover for both. The system on D that I envision would really make use of Griff's secondary defensive abilites...but it all amounts to nought if he can't stop his man, and teams would go right at him in this system, as it would be our Achilles heel. The plus for him is that, as of now, no one on the roster is that much better 1 on 1, and none of the rest have the secondary defensive skills Griff has.

Of offense he will be the 2nd interior option, obviously, if he starts..and if the offense flows through Yao, that means a lot of interior passes, and box out opportunities available. I swear 15 pounds of muscle on Eddie Griffin would mean 5 or 10 more wins for the team.

Yao Ming


Wow. If JVG is as good as his word, this will become Yao's team...On offense and defense, we will feature the big man. The down side? I don't expect that much of an increase in minutes over what Yao played for the 2nd half last year...because the minutes he plays will be heavy duty to say the least. But the minutes he plays should provide even more bang for the buck...much of his role, as I see it , under JVG has already been covered in other players' spots, but I will emphasise them here...


On defense I expect JVG to funnel everything towards Yao, sort of like we used to do with Hakeem Watch a John Thompson Georgetown game if you want to get a real idea...Yao will play goaltender, and whn teams go at him 1 on 1 or try to pull him away, expect him to take middle position with Griff( or whoever) playing goaltender B...Foul trouble could be a problem on occassion, which is why Cato is so essential under JVG.

On offense I expect something akin to Dr. Jack Ramsey's use of Walton...not really running, except with Yao as the outlet passer ( Steve can say bye to 2 defensive rebs. a game) but in the 1/2 court being the pivot around which the other parts revolve, Francis first option among them. Yao will shoot a lot more, pass a lot more, and handle just about every time down the court unless Steve is hot, or the defense is sagging in anticipation.


That's it for starters...I have to run, but will follow up with my take on the affect JVG will have on a few other players ( most notably Morris, Norris, Cato and Taylor) later...


PEACE


JAG

 

Ok...where I left off...



Moochie Norris


I think the style of play that Moochie has demonstrated up till now and the style I thin JVG is going to implement are mutually exclusive. That's not to say that Moochie will fail...his style might just be the most extreme reflection of the system Rudy tried to implement, but if he's going to play in the Yao centered New Rock City , he's going to need to retune his game. Possessions, as noted, are going to be very valuable...dribbling away a majority of the time alloted the offense to get into action will, I expect, not be tolerated beyond the first scrimmage.


On defense Moochie is sort of like a dramatic matedor...a lot of visable effort, but very little result. You watch him casually, and all the histrionics would seem to suggest that he's busting his hump on defense...but you look closer and it just seems like a lot of wasted motion, whose presumed purpose must be to confuse the opposing point guard, but remains yet to be effectively proven as a workable plan. Needless to say JVG will look closely.

Terrance Morris

This is a boom or bust guy right here. Van Gundy might make him into a 10 year starter...but it could be in Europe. He has a lot of the things Van Gundy has historically looked for, defensive versatility, ability to be a secondary offensive player, etc. and could very well end up in the starting lineup, shuffling Cat to the bench with Posey shifting to the 2. But, as everyone knows, he will need to play with assertivness.

Now possibly the greatest problem I always had with Rudy was how he dealt with younger players when it was up to him. When he had no choce, like with Steve and to a degree Yao, he was effective. But when it was up to him they all tended to be in a sort of limbo...It was partly because like all coaches he prefered vets, partly because his teams lacked definition temselves, but it must have been really hard to get a sense of your role under Rudy. I think that Eddie and Morris are prime examples of this. Nachbar could be, I just don't know anything at all about his situation.

The one thing JVG could potentially give both Eddie and more particularly Morris is a sense of definite expectations; you do X, Y, and Z, and you're doing your job...if not, not. That could be just what they need. I still believe in this kid's ability.

Maurice Taylor


Most power forward JVG has coached till now have been, well, power forwards. Just how he'll deal with the likes of Taylor, a very effective drop step mid range offensive player who bangs the boards once a month whatever the weather will be interesting. His body is something like Kurt Thomas or Charles Oakley, but their games couldn't be more different. he is an athlete, a scorer, and that's about it. Now maybe that's what you're looking for, if you're JVG and you're putting Morris at the 3 and Posey at the 2...I don't know. I do know that an offense with Steve Francis at point guard, Cuttino Mobley at shooting guard, and Maurice Taylor at the 4 sure as hell isn't going to be run through Yao, or of it is then those guys better find something to be effective at that doesn't involve having the ball in their hands.

Regarding Mo Taylor's defense...heh heh...I just made a funny.


Again...Mo should be a decent defensive 4...thick body, quick hands, athlete, great feet...it's just that the spirit is never nearly as willing as the flesh is able. It's possible that JVG will find the key that unlocks that particular puzzle...butI find it far more likely that Mo is gone, comes off the bench as instant O, or finds himself doing a lot of what he tends to do on defense...watching.




Glen Rice

As of this moment Glen Rice suddenly finds himself in the unusual position of diplomat. He is the only player on the roster with any real history of playing for Van Gundy, is the oldest Rocket, and for a guy whose previous interaction with coaches has consisted mostly of bashing them in the newspapers, Rice has woken up to discover that he is the resident liason between the coach and the players. In terms of on-court play, I expect no suprises from the Ole Gunner...We all pretty much know what Rice can and can't do at this stage of his career. Can: shoot when open, surprise you with the odd dash and slam, spurts of out-of-nowhere defense or rebounding. Can't: do any of the above with any kind of consistency or endurance.

Kelvin Cato

Unless Cat moves to the bench, Cato is, IMO, far and away our most valuable back up. With the system I expect JVG to implement, Cato will log many minutes this year, as Yao's minutes are going to be of the Heavy lifting variety, and his stamina is already a concern. Add to that the fact that the defense will, I presume, funnel penetration towards the middle and Yao, and foul trouble will probably be a season long battle. Cato is a perfect back up...he can adopt Yao's role on defense when he fills in, thus keeping that open, but his offense is of the complementary variety, allowing other players to flex their egos when Yao is on the bench. I know we're paying this guy a ton...this year, Ipredict, he will be asked to
earn up to 25% of his salary...and that's saying something. JVG will basically ask that he do exactly what he did last year...and that's perfect. I honestly think that you could make an argument that Cato is a more valuable part of our team than Mobley...not a better player, not even a player with more trade value...just a player who I expect will contribute tou our winning games in a more consistent and positive manner than Mobley, under the new system.


That's it...I know there are others, most notably Nachbar...I honestly haven't got a clue about Boki...and I am dying to talk to someone who does. But aside from him, this is how I envision JVG effecting the individual mambers of the Rockets this year.



PEACE


JAG

 

I'll give it a shot later. What was this about Eddie? Maybe he's an asthmatic...you know what asthmatics take?

 

While I think Eddie would need a personality transplant to be anything like Big Ben, I do have hopes that he can be an excellent all around player, and, given 15 pounds, the perfect cpmplement to Yao.

 

Aha! So you're saying I'm a savant...or derivitive...six of one...