The Chandler Parsons contract proves my prediction that moneyball would end in failure

LosPollosHermanos · Jul 12, 2014

BMoney said: ↑

I see your vagina still hurts. You know, you can kill yourself anytime. Nobody will mind. Or care.
Click to expand...

You should get banned for that, totally uncalled for.

DreaMac · Jul 12, 2014

Beverly-Harden-Parsons-Bosh-Howard lineup was pretty much a done deal before Riley panicked, threw more money than deserved at Bosh and changed his mind.

That would have been the best Starting 5 in the NBA. Would you have still posted this?

CertifiedTroll · Jul 12, 2014

If you are writing articles you are way too involved to make such a dumb mistake.. Write off fact, not emotion.

ChumpCity · Jul 12, 2014

BMoney said: ↑

I see your vagina still hurts. You know, you can kill yourself anytime. Nobody will mind. Or care.
Click to expand...

Too far man, too far..

Remii · Jul 12, 2014

JCDenton said: ↑

INTRODUCTION

In my groundbreaking 2010 essay titled "Ahead of the Curve," I brilliantly predicted that Moneyball would end with the exact type of spectacular failure that Daryl Morey's blunders have inflicted on the Rockets over this offseason:

Chandler Parsons is the proof in the pudding: a formerly underpaid role player who now cannot be resigned without paying drastically above his true value and giving him a ridiculous max contract. The problem I pointed out years ago (and Morey has no excuse because my work was published and I was open in my willingness to share my knowledge with the team) is that assets deteriorate faster than he can accumulate them by scrabbling about setting up a 6 team trade to try to squeeze an extra second rounder.

PART I: ASSET DETERIORATION

We all know how Morey "accumulates" assets so there is no need to discuss that. Instead I will talk about asset deterioration. Chandler Parsons is a perfect example. Last year he was a fantastic "asset" who could have netted us a top player, but Morey refused to pull the trigger. Now because of Morey's poor judgment, his value is destroyed: the valuable final year of his drastically below market contract was lost for nothing, and the Rockets can now choose between overpaying him (making him a negative value asset similar to Jeremy Lin) or losing him for nothing.

Assets deteriorate in other ways beyond "cheap" players having to be overpaid. For example, sometimes they can be lost for no good reason (as when wasting draft picks to unnecessarily trade Lin), or sometimes a player expected to be an asset that you give up an asset to get does not pan out (Terrence Williams, Royce White, Joey Dorsey, etc.). Similarly, Dwight Howard's contract will continue to increase as his production drops slightly, another way an asset deteriorates. Dwight Howard could also leave in free agency for nothing at the end of his contract, yet another type of asset loss. The point of all this is that Morey's method of making tiny, incremental moves to collect assets is pointless because the assets go bad at a rate too fast to build a title contender that way. In other words, Moneyball is a failure.

PART II: ASSET ACCUMULATION BEST PRACTICES

How do teams accumulate assets fast enough to win the title then? Rather than wasting their time on needlessly complex machinations, they pay attention to the big picture, hire a quality coach, and run a top flight organization that players want to play for and be loyal to. Championship teams are built with team building and asset windfalls.

Team Building

This is the approach used by the Spurs and old Pistons. Run a top organization, retain your players for a long time, develop them, and build chemistry. This approach can even result in asset windfalls as players accept contracts below value to stay with the team (See: Duncan, Dirk, etc.). Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of the Rockets approach. Players are somewhat more reluctant to sign here because they know they might not stay here. Our coach needs no discussion. We do not develop players and chemistry over the long term. Instead, we ship out useful young players because we do not want to pay them anything above a pittance or make them a reasonable deal(Dragic, Patterson, Hill, etc.). In many instances, we later want these players back even though there was no reason to dump them in the first place!

Asset Windfalls

Asset windfalls typically occur through free agency or the draft. The two most valuable assets in the NBA are a superstar player on a rookie contract, or a max player who plays far above his max contract. These are the two primary ways to obtain an asset that is not determined by market price. The Heat, despite being asset poor, were able to instantly create a superteam due to an asset windfall. The Cavs became contenders both ways: initially Lebron's rookie contract and later due to the windfall of his return in free agency. The biggest boost to the Rockets fortunes was not years of silly pennywise Morey deals, it was getting Dwight Howard to come to Houston without giving up other assets. Unfortunately this offseason, we have witnessed the cost of running a poor organization that players do not want to sign with. Our target free agents spurned and evoken trolled us, and other GMs attempted to damage our cap space because they dislike Morey.

CONCLUSION

For all of Morey's wheeling and dealing, he has accomplished nothing of note. The team is not a title contender, nor does it have a realistic path to contention. The team is not substantially better than what Morey started with: the Yao-Tmac duo that won 52, 55, and 53 games. Last year we won 54 games, and may be worse this year. In other words, Moneyball is a complete failure. As a true Rockets fan, I very regretfully say "I told you so."
Click to expand...

Gosh darn it...!!! I just threw away a couple of minutes of my life reading this 5h1t. I'm all for smacking Morey upside the back of his head today but you really swung in miss.

And no one has won a championship by using the moneyball approach of choosing analytics over the tape _ so there is really nothing for you to prove.

Jet036 · Jul 12, 2014

haydenfisher342 said: ↑

Morey was 1 yes away from a dynasty.
Click to expand...

This - and:

1. We were 5th in the league last season
2. We have 2 of the best players in the league and are still WAY under the cap.

Horrible thread

srrm · Jul 12, 2014

Would you be willing to manage my assets and finances JCDenton?

Serious.
This guy just gets it. I have a graph in mind to illustrate your points. Valuable ideas and information given here

the shark · Jul 12, 2014

JCDenton said: ↑

INTRODUCTION

In my groundbreaking 2010 essay titled "Ahead of the Curve," I brilliantly predicted that Moneyball would end with the exact type of spectacular failure that Daryl Morey's blunders have inflicted on the Rockets over this offseason:

Chandler Parsons is the proof in the pudding: a formerly underpaid role player who now cannot be resigned without paying drastically above his true value and giving him a ridiculous max contract. The problem I pointed out years ago (and Morey has no excuse because my work was published and I was open in my willingness to share my knowledge with the team) is that assets deteriorate faster than he can accumulate them by scrabbling about setting up a 6 team trade to try to squeeze an extra second rounder.

PART I: ASSET DETERIORATION

We all know how Morey "accumulates" assets so there is no need to discuss that. Instead I will talk about asset deterioration. Chandler Parsons is a perfect example. Last year he was a fantastic "asset" who could have netted us a top player, but Morey refused to pull the trigger. Now because of Morey's poor judgment, his value is destroyed: the valuable final year of his drastically below market contract was lost for nothing, and the Rockets can now choose between overpaying him (making him a negative value asset similar to Jeremy Lin) or losing him for nothing.

Assets deteriorate in other ways beyond "cheap" players having to be overpaid. For example, sometimes they can be lost for no good reason (as when wasting draft picks to unnecessarily trade Lin), or sometimes a player expected to be an asset that you give up an asset to get does not pan out (Terrence Williams, Royce White, Joey Dorsey, etc.). Similarly, Dwight Howard's contract will continue to increase as his production drops slightly, another way an asset deteriorates. Dwight Howard could also leave in free agency for nothing at the end of his contract, yet another type of asset loss. The point of all this is that Morey's method of making tiny, incremental moves to collect assets is pointless because the assets go bad at a rate too fast to build a title contender that way. In other words, Moneyball is a failure.

PART II: ASSET ACCUMULATION BEST PRACTICES

How do teams accumulate assets fast enough to win the title then? Rather than wasting their time on needlessly complex machinations, they pay attention to the big picture, hire a quality coach, and run a top flight organization that players want to play for and be loyal to. Championship teams are built with team building and asset windfalls.

Team Building

This is the approach used by the Spurs and old Pistons. Run a top organization, retain your players for a long time, develop them, and build chemistry. This approach can even result in asset windfalls as players accept contracts below value to stay with the team (See: Duncan, Dirk, etc.). Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of the Rockets approach. Players are somewhat more reluctant to sign here because they know they might not stay here. Our coach needs no discussion. We do not develop players and chemistry over the long term. Instead, we ship out useful young players because we do not want to pay them anything above a pittance or make them a reasonable deal(Dragic, Patterson, Hill, etc.). In many instances, we later want these players back even though there was no reason to dump them in the first place!

Asset Windfalls

Asset windfalls typically occur through free agency or the draft. The two most valuable assets in the NBA are a superstar player on a rookie contract, or a max player who plays far above his max contract. These are the two primary ways to obtain an asset that is not determined by market price. The Heat, despite being asset poor, were able to instantly create a superteam due to an asset windfall. The Cavs became contenders both ways: initially Lebron's rookie contract and later due to the windfall of his return in free agency. The biggest boost to the Rockets fortunes was not years of silly pennywise Morey deals, it was getting Dwight Howard to come to Houston without giving up other assets. Unfortunately this offseason, we have witnessed the cost of running a poor organization that players do not want to sign with. Our target free agents spurned and even trolled us, and other GMs attempted to damage our cap space because they dislike Morey.

CONCLUSION

For all of Morey's wheeling and dealing, he has accomplished nothing of note. The team is not a title contender, nor does it have a realistic path to contention. The team is not substantially better than what Morey started with: the Yao-Tmac duo that won 52, 55, and 53 games. Last year we won 54 games, and may be worse this year. In other words, Moneyball is a complete failure. As a true Rockets fan, I very regretfully say "I told you so."
Click to expand...

You've obviously been hanging out with Paulftsk. Your "groundbreaking" essay and "you brilliantly predicted"? You're a legend in our own mind!!

Sherlock31 · Jul 12, 2014

We got rid of LOF, and now we get MOH...............

34to11 · Jul 12, 2014

This may be the most pompous piece of self-aggrandizing twaddle I have ever read in all my days of visiting clutchfans.

Your premise is fundamentally flawed and your conclusions are irrationally assumptive.
Stop riding your own jock and claiming the fallout of happenstance as your personal victory.

Try again when you have something substantive to share because right now you are fooling no one but minions and morons.

flusched · Jul 12, 2014

Too full of JCDenton

I liked your post, but a little humility can go a long ways. Your introduction bragging about how smart you are will automatically turn people off from whatever you have to say. I started a similar thread about Morey's organization that was even less well received than yours. My focus is on the intangibles that can't be measured.

It's all about assessing talent, and creating balance. I've had a wait and see attitude, but I think the jury is in on Morey's organization. It's no better at assessing talent and creating balance than the average GM. It's too much in the head and not enough in the heart.

I liked blowing up the team and starting over.
The start was good. Parsons, Harden, Lin, Asik, Beverley, and Smith and we went 7 games against OKC in the playoffs.

We were a higher seed with Howard, but we would have been a higher seed without him just due to another year with the same guys playing together, and the development of Jones. Continuity has a value that can't be measured. It's chemistry. It's guys caring about each other.

San Antonio wins because it has continuity. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili have never played for another team. SA properly assess talent and maintain balance.

Having a team to root for starts with having an intelligent front office. And an intellect without heart is not an intelligent. Houston has no heart. It has no soul. It's not smart.

Jake Tower · Jul 12, 2014

What a shame.

HillBoy · Jul 12, 2014

JCDenton said: ↑

INTRODUCTION

In my groundbreaking 2010 essay titled "Ahead of the Curve," I brilliantly predicted that Moneyball would end with the exact type of spectacular failure that Daryl Morey's blunders have inflicted on the Rockets over this offseason:

Chandler Parsons is the proof in the pudding: a formerly underpaid role player who now cannot be resigned without paying drastically above his true value and giving him a ridiculous max contract. The problem I pointed out years ago (and Morey has no excuse because my work was published and I was open in my willingness to share my knowledge with the team) is that assets deteriorate faster than he can accumulate them by scrabbling about setting up a 6 team trade to try to squeeze an extra second rounder.

PART I: ASSET DETERIORATION

We all know how Morey "accumulates" assets so there is no need to discuss that. Instead I will talk about asset deterioration. Chandler Parsons is a perfect example. Last year he was a fantastic "asset" who could have netted us a top player, but Morey refused to pull the trigger. Now because of Morey's poor judgment, his value is destroyed: the valuable final year of his drastically below market contract was lost for nothing, and the Rockets can now choose between overpaying him (making him a negative value asset similar to Jeremy Lin) or losing him for nothing.

Assets deteriorate in other ways beyond "cheap" players having to be overpaid. For example, sometimes they can be lost for no good reason (as when wasting draft picks to unnecessarily trade Lin), or sometimes a player expected to be an asset that you give up an asset to get does not pan out (Terrence Williams, Royce White, Joey Dorsey, etc.). Similarly, Dwight Howard's contract will continue to increase as his production drops slightly, another way an asset deteriorates. Dwight Howard could also leave in free agency for nothing at the end of his contract, yet another type of asset loss. The point of all this is that Morey's method of making tiny, incremental moves to collect assets is pointless because the assets go bad at a rate too fast to build a title contender that way. In other words, Moneyball is a failure.

PART II: ASSET ACCUMULATION BEST PRACTICES

How do teams accumulate assets fast enough to win the title then? Rather than wasting their time on needlessly complex machinations, they pay attention to the big picture, hire a quality coach, and run a top flight organization that players want to play for and be loyal to. Championship teams are built with team building and asset windfalls.

Team Building

This is the approach used by the Spurs and old Pistons. Run a top organization, retain your players for a long time, develop them, and build chemistry. This approach can even result in asset windfalls as players accept contracts below value to stay with the team (See: Duncan, Dirk, etc.). Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of the Rockets approach. Players are somewhat more reluctant to sign here because they know they might not stay here. Our coach needs no discussion. We do not develop players and chemistry over the long term. Instead, we ship out useful young players because we do not want to pay them anything above a pittance or make them a reasonable deal(Dragic, Patterson, Hill, etc.). In many instances, we later want these players back even though there was no reason to dump them in the first place!

Asset Windfalls

Asset windfalls typically occur through free agency or the draft. The two most valuable assets in the NBA are a superstar player on a rookie contract, or a max player who plays far above his max contract. These are the two primary ways to obtain an asset that is not determined by market price. The Heat, despite being asset poor, were able to instantly create a superteam due to an asset windfall. The Cavs became contenders both ways: initially Lebron's rookie contract and later due to the windfall of his return in free agency. The biggest boost to the Rockets fortunes was not years of silly pennywise Morey deals, it was getting Dwight Howard to come to Houston without giving up other assets. Unfortunately this offseason, we have witnessed the cost of running a poor organization that players do not want to sign with. Our target free agents spurned and even trolled us, and other GMs attempted to damage our cap space because they dislike Morey.

CONCLUSION

For all of Morey's wheeling and dealing, he has accomplished nothing of note. The team is not a title contender, nor does it have a realistic path to contention. The team is not substantially better than what Morey started with: the Yao-Tmac duo that won 52, 55, and 53 games. Last year we won 54 games, and may be worse this year. In other words, Moneyball is a complete failure. As a true Rockets fan, I very regretfully say "I told you so."
Click to expand...

You will most definitely get flamed for this (primarily because of all of the butt hurt from the past 24 hours) but as I see it, all you are doing is offering a look at the flip side of the Morey Moneyball philosophy. It's baically high stakes poker and when you play that game, you have to be prepared for all eventualities and Morey simply wasn't prepared for a fool like Mark Cuban or the possibility of Bosh getting a max contract from the Heat.

I give Morey a pass of Cuban because he simply didn't understand how desperate Cuban was to have something to show for another wasted offseason. But in hindsight, the Bosh situation should have been a consideration from the start because if LeBron was to bolt from Miami then there would be nothing to stop the Heat from offering Bosh the max. I believe that Morey (along with everyone else) erroneously took it as a given that if LeBron left, then so would Bosh - a position which blinded him to this possibility.

Unfortunately for Morey, he came to play Moneyball when the game was really Texas Hold 'em.

BMoney · Jul 12, 2014

Kwame said: ↑

Click to expand...

I regret my post. I don't want you to kill yourself. I don't want anybody to do that. We are fellow Rockets fans (I think), so, my apologies for losing my cool.

JCDenton · Jul 13, 2014

HillBoy said: ↑

You will most definitely get flamed for this (primarily because of all of the butt hurt from the past 24 hours) but as I see it, all you are doing is offering a look at the flip side of the Morey Moneyball philosophy. It's baically high stakes poker and when you play that game, you have to be prepared for all eventualities and Morey simply wasn't prepared for a fool like Mark Cuban or the possibility of Bosh getting a max contract from the Heat.

I give Morey a pass of Cuban because he simply didn't understand how desperate Cuban was to have something to show for another wasted offseason. But in hindsight, the Bosh situation should have been a consideration from the start because if LeBron was to bolt from Miami then there would be nothing to stop the Heat from offering Bosh the max. I believe that Morey (along with everyone else) erroneously took it as a given that if LeBron left, then so would Bosh - a position which blinded him to this possibility.

Unfortunately for Morey, he came to play Moneyball when the game was really Texas Hold 'em.
Click to expand...

This is exactly my point. Morey could have tried to build a team this offseason but instead indulged his gambling addiction. We could have kept Parsons for less than a million and used the outgoing salaries of Lin and Asik to upgrade positions of need. We would have been a true championship contender.

Instead Morey took huge gambles on contingencies that weren't very likely to happen. Getting Bosh or Melo and having a weak bench (and possibly not being able to afford Parsons) wasn't going to get us a title. Morey has had the worst offseason of any GM outside of Pat Riley.

Amel · Jul 13, 2014

5 stars for trying...

BigBum · Jun 3, 2019

I read a lot. Tilman expect him to win champ this year.
If losing record in January, mda is done.

Asian Sensation · Jun 3, 2019

What’s with all these new member bums necrobumping threads

topfive · Jun 3, 2019

BigBum said: ↑

I read a lot. Tilman expect him to win champ this year.
If losing record in January, mda is done.
Click to expand...

What hell are you babbling about now?

Does your comment have anything whatsover to do with this shitty thread you bumped?

lurgar · Jun 3, 2019

Lookit all those crazy ass tags

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