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The Houston Rockets currently lead all 2014 playoff team in

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, May 2, 2014.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2014.html

    Points per possession at 115.4 per 100 possessions, up from the 111.0 they averaged during the regular season. The Rockets' points per 100 possessions for these 5 games were: 112.0, 107.7, 125.9, 117.8 and 117.8.

    For all the talks about who did and didn't come through on offense. The overall offensive efficiency hasn't been bad at all.

    The Rockets have improved on their regular season offensive efficiency by cutting down on turnovers (10.9% in the series vs. 14.6% in the regular season) and absolutely crashing the offensive boards (34.8% offensive rebound %, vs. a pretty good 27.4% for the regular season). They have also done so despite not shooting as well from the field and not getting to the FT line as much.

    They are, however, allowing 114.8 points per 100 possessions on defense, the second worst among the playoff teams. They have been worse vs. Portland than they did during the regular season in pretty much all categories-- opponent 2 pt %, 3 pt %, efg%, defensive rebound, opponent turnover, and opponent FTA/FGA.

    A part of this is due to the fact that Portland is a top offensive team with a not-great defense, but Portland isn't that extreme in either offense or defense to account for the differences.
     
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  2. clutz

    clutz Member

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    What is the Rockets' offensive efficiency in crunch time this series?
     
  3. RockingRox

    RockingRox Member

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    I think the twin tower starting front court has contributed the improvement to OR rate. TT is not bad at all. Unless there's a three point shooting power forward starting from the opposing team, I guess the TT starting line up is not bad.

    Surprised to know that points per possession has improved so much.
     
  4. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Seems like Portland has just been nailing a ton of open shots. Even miracle circus shots seem to be going in. I have nightmares of that early LMA turnaround fadeaway three pointer where I was like "My god"

    Thanks for the info though, good to know that our offense is still top notch.
     
  5. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

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    1. Portland is the worst team in NBA to force TOV.
    2. Portland is very bad on defense.
     
  6. Nero

    Nero Member

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    This.

    People seem to be stuck in the mindset that we are 'allowing' the Blazers to do whatever they want, and that our defense has been horrible.

    It has not been stellar, true, but the fact of the matter is, the Blazers are leading in this series not because our defense has been bad, or our offense has been sub-par (as evidenced by the OP), but simply because of the fact that the Blazers have been on an uncanny roll, with several of their players playing far above their norms, especially when it comes to making shots.

    First it was LMA, then Lillard, and then Batum, and Matthews.

    One miracle after another, one lucky bounce after another, one bad call against the Rockets after another.

    It has been a perfect storm against us.

    And even with all of that, they have STILL only barely beaten us.

    Houston is the far superior team.

    The only real question is, will Portland's carriage turn back into a pumpkin in time for the Rockets to pull this series back from the brink? Or will the Blazers' otherworldly cheat-mode level of play continue?

    We have seen LMA come back down to earth.

    I seriously doubt we will see Matthews repeat his ridiculous performance in the last game. Batum, well, he and Lillard may be able to keep it up - Batum because he's just annoying no matter what, and Lillard because he is just that damn good.

    Even with everything falling against us, we still could very easily be up in the series or even heck, could have already WON the series.

    It's a must-win tonight. Everybody knows it. We know we should have won the most games in the series, and so do the Blazers. To me, the pressure is all on them. They know they have relied up miracles so far, and it has to be eating away in the back of their minds - is this the night it all ends?

    BELIEVE.
     
  7. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    -The Blazers are ranked 17th overall on opponent points per possession in the regular season per basketball-reference.com. Below average, but not "very bad"-- not enough to account for the kind of jump on Houston offensive efficiency over its own regular season numbers.

    Their opponent TO% is indeed extremely low. However, the change in Houston's TO% from regular season to post-season (14.6% down to 10.9%) has been even greater than the difference between Portland's opponent TO% and the league average (11.0% vs. 13.6%).

    - Regardless of what the Blazers' numbers mean in terms of assessing how Houston's numbers say about their true abilities compared to other teams (i.e., adjusting the data to "strength of schedule), it nevertheless remains that the Rockets' offensive output are more than reasonably good while their defensive numbers would be problematic in any series vs. any opponent.
     
    #7 Carl Herrera, May 2, 2014
    Last edited: May 2, 2014
  8. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

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    Thanks Obama!..:mad:...Oh, wait, this is good right?...:grin:
    .......
    .......
    .......
     
  9. kfmfe04

    kfmfe04 Member

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    Horrible narrative - much too whiny!

    I don't think they are as scared as you think, returning home, and only have to win 1 of 2.

    This is not luck - it's called stepping it up for the playoffs - it's called preparation/planning. If you think everything they do is a miracle, then you have underestimated and made insufficient preparation for your opponents. The fact that they have done so means they can possibly do it again (LMA & co) - you can write it off as all luck or you can do your best to prepare and adjust.

    The truth of the matter is, both teams are very evenly matched, maybe the most evenly matched pair in R1.

    Trying to predict G6 by digging statistics will not help - we are so closely matched that even Morey has simplified the outcomes as a bunch of coin flips.

    But like everyone here, I want this to go to 7 and I want us to make it to the second round (at least). I am hoping the momentum of the decisive ending to G5 carries over into G6 (and G7), but the reality is, this series is just too close to call.

    We have to win it one quarter at a time.
     
  10. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    Especially the 4th quarter :eek:
     
  11. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    Well if you consider that Aldridge, Batum, and Batum are playing above there heads. Than you could say that it is getting ridiculous. I mentioned in a previous thread, that Portland is playing with fire right now. They keep getting down double digits, then pull off miraculous shots to reel the Rockets back in. They did the same in game 5, but couldn't keep it up, and the Rockets made there move late. Portland's jump shooting has been incredible all series long, and is due for a major drop off. The points in the paint usually determine series. I expect the Rockets to do what they do. They should win tonight.
     
  12. Nero

    Nero Member

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    Wrong, it's not a horrible narrative, it's just the truth.

    LMA hitting a fallaway 3 with Howard in his face as the shot clock is expiring.. Lillard flying sideways and throwing up a shot from the floor, facing away from the basket, plus a foul.. the list goes on, and on and on and on.. blatantly bad calls from the refs (which can't happen in such an evenly-matched series).. and without ANY ONE of those miraculous things happening in their favor, we win those games, it's as simple as that.

    They just CAN'T keep it up. The odds are too great against it.

    Yes we will do what we do, and we will win, as long as that angel which has been sitting on their shoulders decides to let Portland come back down to their normal level of play.
     
  13. Jake Tower

    Jake Tower Member

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    The Rockets spent the last two months of the season making every scrub in the NBA look like a superstar. Don't you remember the night of Coreysanity? What makes you think it isn't the Rockets letting these players constantly go off?
     
  14. Nero

    Nero Member

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    Because I have watched the playoff games, and have personally witnessed one miracle for them after another. Have you not been watching the GAMES?

    And by the way, the last few weeks of the season were either without Bev & Howard, or when they had just come back and were still trying to get back up to speed.
     
  15. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    The Blazers played out of there minds in games 1-4. They regressed a bit in game 5, but that wasn't without some ridiculous shooting stretches.

    If they are cold, and our bigs stay out of foul trouble, than Houston will be fine. It will be interesting to see how the refs call the game early. I think Aldridge is going to try and post Asik up on the block and create some contact to test the officials.
     
  16. Hrock

    Hrock Rookie

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    They nailed some ridiculous shots this series....
     
  17. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    There are a multitude of factors affecting the result of every game. With very close games, the number of factors that could have been "decisive" is especially large.

    In this series, Portland hitting an unusual number of lucky/tough shots is one of these factors. It's not the only factor and is not a factor that the Rockets can control, but an objective realistic assessment of the games would have to recognize it rather than deny it-- much like an objective assessment of game 5 would have to factor in those two Jeremy Lin buzzer beaters as at least partly a result of good luck. Not that he can't hit them, but the FG% on these kind of shots taken by any player is generally pretty low.

    There are, however, a number of things which, unlike jump shot luck or referee mistakes, the Rockets can fix (some they did fix, some they are still working on): Harden needs to at least pay attention on D, the team getting stagnant on offense in the 4th, some blown rotations, putting Asik in the starting lineup only since game 3, etc. These things also contributed to the state of the series.

    On one hand, the Rockets may look to be in OK shape given that Portland's shooting is not sustainable in the long run. The problem is that all these factors already have the Rockets down 2-3 and Portland doesn't need to stay hot in the long run. All they need is to win one more game, and just one more hot game or even a couple more hot quarters may do Houston in.
     
  18. cbs1507

    cbs1507 Member

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    Yeah they are hitting some spectacular shots and we are missing some incredibly easy ones in return (several time missed layups have led to wide open 3's for Portland who have been hitting). That's the main problem.
     
  19. sun12

    sun12 Member

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    Of course not, it is the lack of perimeter defense for the Rox. You can blame the players or you can blame the coach.

    The reason Portland players made those shots is that they are all in a shooting rhythm. If the Rox defense is good through the 4 quarters, these players will have bad rhythms, I doubt they will make those late shots.

    I have no doubt if Pat Riley coaches the team, Rox will win already.
     
  20. hltiki

    hltiki Member

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    you leave the bringer of hope and change out of this
     

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