James Harden forgotten by ESPN's "analysts" in their MVP forecast

Perennial MVP of the Houston Rockets.
DH12 doesn't come here, and we don't make the playoffs without him!

 

Goodness, the Rocket "fans" in this thread. You know Harden's a top ten MVP candidate. And to say Dirk and Love (both don't play D and one couldn't lead their team to the playoffs) deserve mention over him? Shame...

 

DUH. Get it through your thick heads...

He was snubbed because of his defense!

Some of you think he was snubbed because everyone hates the Rockets?! Seriously.

 

That's not the point. The point is he didn't get a single vote and that is embarrassing for a major network like ESPN to not even have ONE MVP vote for the season Harden is having.

 

That's okay. He will make them look silly during the playoffs.

 

This idea that Harden is the worst defender in the league is almost comical, there are at least 3 players on this team who are worse defenders, one who doesn't get minutes, one who shouldn't and one the zerg vehemently argue is as good as beverley. There are worse things that being beaten off the dribble, indiscriminately fouling is one of those things.

 

I’m guessing the ESPN MVP voters relied mostly on the eye test but also utilized these statistics: Player Points Per Game (PPG) from http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/avgPoints; the number of points a team scores while that player is on the court (ORTg) from http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerGe...on&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=50&filters=MIN*GE*28; the number of points allowed by a team when that player is on the court (DRTg) from http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerGe...on&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=50&filters=MIN*GE*28; a player’s Real Plus Minus value to his team on Offense (ORPM) from http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/1; a player’s Real Plus Minus on Defense (DRPM) from http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/1; a Player’s Overall Value to his team via Real Plus Minus (RPM) from http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/1; Player X’s Value as determined by the number of wins for a team above his typical replacement (WAR), Wins Above Replacement) from http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/position/1; and Player Efficiency rating (PER, eFG) from http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerGe...son&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=50&filters=MIN*GE*28, a term we all know and love. I chose PER because I didn’t want to post a lot of other stats: (2PtA, 2Pt%, 3PtA, 3Pt%, etc, but you can find them in the usual places). I would think MVP, the most valuable player, should be more closely alligned with team stats such as RPM and xRAPM than individual stats. That’s why I included RPM, ORPM, and DRPM. In my opinion, WAR is also important when trying to evaluate most valuable player.


Feel free to review the data and decide for yourselves whether the ESPN MVP Selection Process is unfair and/or prejudiced against James Harden. His defensive numbers are not very good compared to the other MVP candidates. Seems like he holds his own in the other categories, but his defensive RPM certainly won't help.

NAME-------------PPG------PER-----ORTg-----DRTg---DRPM---ORPM--RPM*---WAR
Kev Durant--------31.9-----56.1-----109.5-----101.5-----0.50-----6.15----6.65----17.36
Lebron James-----27.1-----61.0-----111.4-----103.5---- -0.60----8.32----7.72----17.27
Blake Griffin-------24.1-----53.3-----111.1-----101.5-----1.82-----2.16----3.98----11.34
Joakin Noah-------12.6-----47.6-----101.8------97.6------3.78-----0.41----4.19----10.24
Kevin Love--------26.2-----52.6-----108.7-----103.9------1.43-----3.95----5.38----13.51
Chris Paul---------19.1-----50.6-----111.5------99.9------1.74-----5.59----7.33----13.22
Steph Curry-------24.0-----56.6-----109.7-----100.3------0.03----5.77----5.74----14.18
Al Jefferson-------22.0------51.2----102.7-----101.7------0.45-----0.83----1.28-----5.30
Tim Duncan-------15.1-----49.0-----107.4-----100.7------5.29-----0.00----5.29----10.20
Dirk Nowitzki------21.6-----54.8-----110.3-----105.5-----1.35------4.15----5.50----12.30
Paul George-------21.7-----49.0-----102.7------96.3------2.18-----0.43----2.61-----8.54
Lamarc Aldridge--23.2------45.9-----110.5-----103.4-----2.84-----2.32----5.16----11.59
Goran Dragic------20.3-----56.1-----110.3-----103.8---- -0.75----4.23----3.48-----9.53
James Harden-----25.4-----52.9-----110.7----103.1----- -2.66----5.69----3.03-----9.23

*ESPN new metric, RPM, is basically the same xRAPM metric developed by Jerry Englemann; the only difference is that the new RPM stat does not have a coaching component in the Box score term (this according to Jerry Englemann’s own words; Jerry was hired by ESPN to help create the its new, if you want to call it that, RPM metric). http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8548.
--OffRTG is shortened to ORTg; DefRTg is shortened to DRTg; PER is used as eFG

 

Since when did Dirk start playing defense?

 

Some of y'all care wayyyy too much what ESPN thinks...

 

It is of Daryl Morey's opinion that there are no conclusive, publicly available defensive metrics, and it is an overall very difficult thing to measure.

 

ESPN happens to influence more people's opinions than any other conglomerate. It's a natural reaction. You expect the wackos to give wacky opinions, and the ones with the greatest marketshare to give the most balanced opinions.

I don't believe that leaving Harden off the ballot completely is a balanced opinion. There's no good reason that also applies to the rest of the candidates.

 

Um, are you trying to defend Harden's defense....really? If you don't want to use stats I understand, but just watch a couple games. It's pretty apparent. I just hope he's been saving his good stuff for the playoffs.

 

He's not saying he doesn't want to use stats, he's saying there are no stat that says "So and so is a bad defensive player" or "So and so is a good one."

 

I want to make a Harden/Howard MVP tee shirt for the play offs!! Who cares what they say!!

 

Defense probably hurt him, but he still deserves more consideration.

Love and Curry are subpar defenders, but Harden is worse... FAR WORSE headline-wise. Players are setting records against James. Ariza, Brewer, and all blooper-type highlights of bad D. He's capable defensively when desperation mode is in full effect.. DEN last week, POR last matchup, NO last 3 minutes, @PHX last matchup, etc). The team on whole tends to give more effort in desperation mode. Follow the leader.

Perhaps James is conserving energy on defense, but we'd be better off if he sacrificed some offense for defense. Defense is more consistent.

 

According to that metric, Curry has been better defensively than Lebron

.......

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I know he's been slacking but come on, the moment you see lebron behind such defensive stalwarts as love, dirk and curry, doesn't a light go off?

 

Lebron's defense has been pretty bad defensively this season

 

ESPN only cares about The Lakers, Knicks, Lebron, Blake Griffin, and Durant. They're the last place you should look for "balanced opinions".

 

Ironically synergy tracking gives him the exact same performance as George, and he doesn't have a Hibbert behind him.

 

This guy doesn't get a single vote?

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Are you sure?

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What?

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