Jeremy Lin stats against west top 9 this season

you guys must really love Lin to care so much to make statistical charts about his performance over anyone else on the team. Why dont you do the same statistics of everyone else on the team esp Harden and Howard.

 

Most of Lin's issues will always stem from 2 big problems with his game.
1.) His lack of lateral quickness
2.) His low basketball IQ

Offensively, he has lived off having that great first step. His size and quick step allows him to get past his guy and get to the rim with ease, however he isn't all that adept at finishing or getting to the line. You can tell he has added outside shooting to game, but still isn't quite there as far a pure efficiency goes. The problem is he is a bit of a one trick pony. If his first drive isn't working for him, he can't improvise well or counter to create something out of nothing. This why is turnover rate is one of the worst in the league for PGs. He seems to be intently focused on getting past his man on the perimeter with no real idea of what he is going to do once he gets there. This happens so many times. He gets around his guy, sees there are no lanes to the basket, reactively jumps with no idea of where the ball is going. That's the problem with the "better teams". More complex defenses, less opportunities for Lin to use his gimmick.

This is quite the contrast to Harden, who has an extremely high basketball IQ, who seems to know exactly what he is going to do with the ball, for better or worse. We see this often, as he breaks around his man and passes to the next shooter the moment that shooter's defender breaks to cover. The shooter, by positioning himself just a few feet behind the 3 point line is gifted with an open shot or a non set defender who can easily be navigated past.

Defensively, its even worse. Lin's lack of lateral quickness gives him issues with staying with his man. He doesn't seem to understand how plays are going to evolve and where the ball is going to end up after the first part of the play is executed. This leads to close out problems on open shooters. We often see Lin hidden on defense as he is far and away our least capable perimeter defender. Harden is bad, but his is an effort issue, not a physical limitation.

 

Even during Linsanity Miami exposed him and make him look like a scrub.

 

I don't use PER because I feel it's fundamentally flawed as a statistic and of limited value. I've already expressed in previous threads my criticisms of the PER statistic, and they are due to the mathematical assumptions in the base formula. That's a debate for stats heads.

I rarely bring up ws/48 because I believe it's only applicable to specific discussions. I believe it's useful for determining minutes usage for players on the SAME team serving the same role. I don't believe it's useful for comparing players on Different teams or in different roles on the same team.

I don't use xRAPM because the statistical formula is not transparent. They don't provide the underlying assumptions in terms of variable weighting so I can't actually judge the mathematical variables and weighting being used. This is not to be confused with RAPM which is a fully transparent statistic. That said, I believe RAPM is only useful across large statistical samples.

I choose to use the specific the general and advanced statistics that I feel are fundamentally sound, logical, and transparent. For example I fully understand the mathematical assumptions behind the formulas for eFG% and TS%, and accept any compromises that are made in their formulation.

Don't confuse an interpretation/analysis (my personal interpretation of the data and what it means, ie, an opinion that is supported by my statistical interpretation) and my criticism of statistical methodology.

The difference is like arguing over how you calculate Mileage vs whether a specific car has good mileage or not. I can criticize how you are calculating miles per gallon without making comment on the vehicle itself.

In this thread my primary objection is the statistical methodology. In other threads, I present personal opinions based upon my own statistical analysis. In other threads, I present the statistical data without analysis or interpretation (like the Rockets use of Screens).

Disagreeing with my opinions does not invalidate a statistical analysis. Critical dissection of the mathematical assumptions and methodology invalidates a statistical analysis. Nor does disagreeing with my personal opinions invalidate criticism of a methodology any more than disagreeing with how you're calculating fuel efficiency invalidates your logical thought process on how relevant that fuel efficiency is to your valuation of a vehicle.

 

Well, for myself...

...trying as I might to stay out of the whole "...Jeremy Lin sucks/doesn't suck..." conflagration around here...

...I've come to accept that believing what we see isn't always knowing exactly what is going on or why.

It goes without saying that Jeremy Lin, contextually, has been disappointing as a Rocket (and only in terms of what his compensation currently is)...but strangely, that is something (as yet) I can't personally fault him for.

James Harden's sudden, 11th-hour acquisition by the organization changed the dynamic of the team last year, as did Dwight Howard's arrival this season, in a different way, for Omer Asik.

It could be argued that Asik is as good a player as he will likely ever be (which is much better than more than half of the league at his position), so there's no lingering animus with him personally, no matter how he behaved earlier in the season. But Lin's projections as a player aren't as certain, to me.

I have thought, since Harden arrived last season, that any idea or hope of Lin and Harden forming a formidable paring in the backcourt would stem from expectations for the team. And even then, because of Harden, those expectations would be greater than most would suppose on the surface.

James Harden, before our eyes, is becoming an elite player, and one who can single-handedly snatch victory from defeat at any time. And that type of player forces the people around him to adjust their games to accommodate him. And rightfully so.

You kind of see what I mean if you look at Oklahoma City, with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Durant, to me, should be the player that decides the game for the Thunder, all things being equal. Westbrook has never sought (or never understood) that his role (as important as it is to that team) should be secondary to Durant. Durant's personality is not the force that Westbrook's is, however, and as such (along with Scott Brooks' "coaching"), that team is still sorting through and identity crisis, of sorts.

All while vying for a potential conference championship berth.

One wonders what might have been had Goran Dragic remained. Could Dragic have co-existed with Harden? Do you take the ball out of Dragic's hands to accommodate Harden? Or Dwight Howard? Does Dragic play poorly enough to even make it an option? Could we have had potentially the same type of problem between those two that OKC has with Westbrook and Durant?

My point is that Jeremy Lin, for all of the excess heaped on him by his sojourn in New York...needs to progress in his development as a player. That much was obvious even before Lin left New York. And he was not going to be afforded that opportunity with the expectations of the Rockets driven to heights not seen in these parts for quite a while.

Harden, in very short order, to me, has assumed the role I thought he should...and that is of the offensive "closer" or "finisher" for the team. That doesn't necessarily mean accommodation offensively...but everybody knows who's going to have the ball and what he's likely to do with it, so everybody else can slide into support roles to help. You go for stability with a “young” team as quick as you can find it. Patrick Beverly currently “fits” better alongside Harden because his skill set complements Harden. The Rockets have an identity, after a fashion, now, because of that.

I honestly don’t have a clue if Lin is as good a player as he’s ever going to be. But decision-making and ballhandling are paramount for a guard (especially a point-guard). Lin is too erratic, no matter how the numbers are parsed, to have him facilitate the offense for the Rockets, at least to the extent that Harden currently has to, and far too often sometimes.

Statistical analyses are important in professional sports, which is more than most things, a meritocracy. But as it’s also been mentioned, the players are human beings. There’s often a whole heck of a lot more at work than stat sheets when building a team.

I’m not as concerned about what stats do or don’t tell us about Jeremy Lin, as I am how he and his teammates play with one another…

 

Well said indeed!

On a side note, a lesson could be learned here: don't ever argue about numbers with a statistician :grin:

 

Except taking an average across 4 teams is even less meaningful than just taking a set of games against a specific team.

Team vs team and player vs team performance is subject to match up issues in addition to the normal issue of sample size.

It's like taking Dwight's performance against OKC (strong inside defense and shot blocking) and averaging it with Dwight's performance against Miami (No inside presence and no shot blocking). Averaging them out actually tells us LESS than looking a smaller sample against just OKC or just Miami.

In other words, your assumptions are still methodologically flawed as it provides no meaningful insight in terms of how a player will perform.

All that you have displayed is that in your attempt to troll the perceived "LOF's" is that you not only have a specific agenda, but that you don't understand any the nature of the tools that you are using.

And personally, I just find that even more sad.

Given the large number of mathematically fluent posters on this forum (thank Morey), it seems almost tragic that you would not seek to avail yourself of the opportunity to learn a bit more about a discipline that is so fundamentally integral to the planned future success of the Team of which you call yourself a fan.

 

When I compare your responses to torocan's, I get an itch to create a montage that juxtaposes your comments to torocan's...but it will only make me weep for you.

And for all those that complain about LOFs, I swear that in the GARM these days, most threads that devolve into these pointless back and forth Lin threads are started by LOFHs. Just look at how pointless OP's creation of this thread was and how it was practically goading posters to create another one of these Lin thread beasts.

 

Yeah you're right! Lin Absolutely Sux. And shame about his fans. They Sux too.

Thank you for enlightening not only me but a lot of ppl in this forum. You're efforts and the time you have spent in ensuring that we are informed of this will certainly make a difference not only for all the basketball fans, but for the Rockets team moving forward.

Shame if we only listened to you earlier

 

What do you think the playoffs are all about?

No catching a Boston, Orlando or Charlotte at home on a back to back for them.

Scouting, proper rest for all and a slower half court game with top defenses much more attuned to the game plan and individual player's tendencies.

JLin has looked best against POR & SA so we can only hope that he has his confidence heading into the playoffs and we face those two teams first.

 

OP is just another LOF. His obsession with Lin, albeit in a negative fashion, is on par with some of Lin's extreme supporters.

 

If you read Torocan's post without preconceived assumption, both of you actually agree that Lin is mediocre at this point of his career and there are certain things he is good at or not good at.

Lin is just like a half cup of water. Some sees it is half empty (like you, DD) and some sees it is half full (like Torocan). Human mind is really mysterious. So it is often wise not to judge each others' intention (unless it is purely trolling). This is why there is a thing called keeping a open mind. In fact, based on the posts you both had previously, you both are actually very rational person. Sometimes we all have to let go our emotion and agree to disagree.

Also, I tend to be in the camp of half full. Lin is what he is at this point of career. He will get better. I just hope he can get better faster so he can contribute to the Rockets' success :grin:

 

Torocan has already explained per 36 pretty well. When there are different types of fruits (performances with varying minutes per game), per 36 allows you to convert them all into apples (performances per 36) for comparison. But I do agree that the conversion process is not perfect. As you've indicated, a 16 points per 36 for Casspi from 9 minutes of play is not equal to 16 points per 36 for Parsons from 40 minutes of play. And this conversion to baseline becomes more misleading the lower the minutes played (extreme performances can be sustained for short amounts of time, so scoring 7 points in 5 minutes is not super extraordinary, but may result in per 36 numbers suggesting Lebron-level performance).

However, I believe comparing "non-uniform" apples via per 36 is still better than comparing apples to oranges (the only exception is when the minutes are extremely low, in which case you should not be trying to compare at all). This is especially the case when a player's minutes per game varies a lot (and the last time I looked at the data, Lin's standard deviation of minutes was the highest out of all Rockets).

As for inferences of direction of causality, I also do agree that low minutes may be a result of Lin's poor play, as opposed to being a cause of it. At the same time, however there have been plenty games where Lin shot 1-5 or something in the first 25 minutes and then explodes in the 4th quarter (which, had he been benched, would never have happened). Thus, the direction can go both ways, and honestly I'm at a loss of how to solve this chicken-egg problem.

But even causality aside, it doesn't change the fact that Lin scoring 10 points in 20 minutes in game A is still =/= to a performance where he scores 10 points in 40 minutes in game B. Given the varying min per game, if you intend to "total up" his performances for a given set of games and average them as the OP has done, isn't it better to convert them to apples as best you can before doing so? Per 36 allows you to do that and (IMO) provides a clearer picture.

 

but...but bev is an energy guy LMAO

 

The thing that annoys me though is that some LOFHs, like OP, just don't understand a lot of the arguments being made and the nuances being made in them. They then create strawmen or commit other logical fallacies. Torocan spends less time in most of these threads defending and propping up Lin than explaining stats and basic logic. He often responds to a very specific argument with a very specific answer, but some posters like to take his responses and extrapolate it to mean other things that he is NOT saying and starting a whole new discussion on that, as if torocan said x when he didn't.

 

yay another Lin thread

 

That's basically the essence of LOH

person A: makes objective statisical observation

LOH: wait what? you're an LOF aren't you?!