What do you think Jeremy Lin is worth?

Thanks!

Just as I expected:

So basically it would have been 4 - 4 - 10 -10, and the final year would have been declined. 3 years 18 million.

 

To be 100% honest, when I went to a Rockets game last year the crowd was about 65-75% asian. I'm sure the Houston asian community has embraced Lin and his turnovers just fine

 

I don't feel that Lin is being picked on. I am surprised that we are still discussing this issue when it has been discussed many times and the general conclusion is that Lin is currently over paid. What good would it do to hash it out over and over again. It's not going to change. It's like a neurotic patient talking about how badly he was treated by his parents. The past can't be changed. He has to move on or continue to wollow in his misery. Many Garm posters are upset with Lin's salary, but his salary won't go away. However, us talking about it only increases its presence in our consciousness and maintains GARM's dysphoria about the situation. Does this explain my position?

 

When you are a backup and coming off a bad year or two, you will not get any good offers in the league.

Think about D. Collison, he got a pretty bad year in Dallas so he can only settle for 1.9 mil in LAC.

In Lin's case, unless somehow he can improved a lots next season, otherwise if he will just maintain about the same performance of this season.

It's very difficult to see him to get any good offers for his next contract.

He has a very bad reputation on his D and being inconsistent.

I would say if he keep playing like this for next season, his next contract will probably be something like 3 years 10 mils (with team option for 3rd year) or 2 years for 7-8 mils.

 

Jeremy is a $5.5-6 million/year player that will somehow pull a $7 million/year contract due to being Jeremy Lin. :grin:

 

fixed.

 

I believe it was a team option.

 

Based off the post above showing what other PG's are getting, combined w/ Lin's actual production, I'd say more like 1.5 million a year is more like it.

 

What's the difference? I'm sure that crowd is still majority asian. I'm also sure their not there for Jordan Hamilton

 

A loaf of bread, gallon of milk, and a stick off butter.

 

So six mil a year with a team option in the final year if the team exercises it's option not to renew.. That makes sense. They must have thought very highly of him as he was only a rookie with about 65 games under his belt.

 

If you think he's worth that much, I've got some swamp land in Louisiana to sell you at a very, very good price.

Seriously, if Morey can get rid of Lin this summer, he deserve votes for GM of the Year. I think he is simply a player who shinned for a small period of time and he profited from it. I don't blame him one bit.

I think he is what he is right now and I don't see much improvement. Unfortunately, for Lin I think his popularity is his down fall. He feels as though he has to live up to a certain level, he's not able to match it and he puts too much pressure on himself.

I think if he relaxed, he would play better but he's carrying a whole nation of people on his every move.

 

people just can't get over the $15mil number without looking at the whole contract. for some reason, people forget it's a 3 yr contract, not 1.

this is like complaining about the shirt that you paid for in a 2 for 1 deal. you get a shirt for free, but you have to pay for the other one. don't complain about it. and no, you can't return the shirt you paid for and still keep the free shirt. that's not how things work.

 

Lin is underrated and will be valued by a lot of teams. There aren't that many skilled combo guards in the league with size. I think under the current CBA he is probably a $6 million a year player.

 

There is no single stat that can tell you a player's value.

xRAPM is okay, but it has several methodological shortcomings that are biased against certain types of players versus other types of players and isn't terribly transparent (vs RAPM, not to be confused). However, that's a debate best left for stats junkies.

The best option is to take an aggregate of stats that measure different facets, then look at that within the context of their role, usage and pace. Then use that as a comparison to build a baseline view of the player versus other players.

For example, if you want to compare Lin's passing, then it's best to use Passing Assists/TO vs Assist/TO as driving guards typically have a substantial portion of TO's that are not passing related.

You could then look at passing quality and quality of looks generated to understand the types of shots that are being created (at the rim vs mid range vs 3 pointers).

And then you would adjust for the actual shooting percentages of the players receiving those passes (passing to Stephen Curry vs Terence Jones would distort the results).

If you were looking at scoring impact, you would look at a variety of factors such as PPP, TS%, team points off drives, team assists off drives, 3pt%, points off fouls, and FT%.

If you were looking at defensive measurement (the hardest to assess) you would look at defensive rating on/off the floor with only ONE substituted player, opponent FG%, opponent TS%, opponent rim FG%, opponent percentage on 3pt%, and break downs of type of scoring (vs isolation, vs pnr handler, vs jump shooter).

And then you would interpret it as best you can to formulate an over all opinion of the player and value relative to the team in question (which is pretty much what GM's do... they have scouting and analytics teams for a reason).

Now, if you're arguing that Lin is only worth $5M to the Rockets, I'm not sure that's an opinion I can argue against. Lin's role is significantly overlapped by Harden's skill set (which is unique among shooting guards). On another team with a more conventional shooting guard, Lin's value is considerably higher as his role (and impact) would be larger.

On the other hand, as a back up to Harden and as a functional PG, Lin's overlap in skillset has it's own intrinsic value (as the games with Harden out make quite clear).

That said, Lin's value to the Rockets doesn't dictate what the other 29 teams will do in terms of valuation.

Keep in mind that the increase in numbers isn't a linear thing. Moving from the bench to the starting line up is not only impacted by the level of opposition, but by the quality of players surrounding them, especially when talking about Point Guards (who are expected to facilitate/improve those around them).

Virtually all "composite" stats are flawed, especially if not viewed within the context of the team, role and system. The best you can really do is accumulate as many different statistical viewpoints as you can, then formulate your own interpretations of what story it's telling you.

What I would say is use a combination of stats that give you the best picture possible and COMBINE that with critical viewing (don't give into first impressions, go back and check the actual video/data). Then use that to decide where you think he falls in the relative comparison if that's what you wish to do.

 

JLINS worth?

Whatever a team is WILLING to pay! This not only applies to Lin, but to any employee who works for a living. We all know someone who get's paid more than they should, and like others have already mentioned, he's worth a LOT more to Alexander than he is to Morey.

What I'm curious about is not what he's making now, but what he's going to make in his next contract! I bet a lot of people are probably going to be surprised, especially after we've seen the REAL JLin play and not the Linsanity that we thought we were getting originally!

(P.S) Not saying his next contract will be with the Rockets...
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the right question is -

how much is a james harden insurance policy worth to the team? because based on what we've seen, if/when james is hurt, there's only one guy that can step in and play the role. this is the biggest reason he's still on the team.

with james on the team, he value is pretty darn low, since they're so similar in terms of playing style and role, and that's why he's coming off the bench. but if/when jame is hurt, you can't afford to lose that production for an extended period of time, since you're in win-now mode.

considering how he's performed without harden, if harden goes down and is expected to miss a few months, how much would you pay for lin?

 

I also listened to Woodson's remark. It did show that the Knicks wanted him very badly. However, I heard that Dolan was enraged that Lin accepted the Rocket's offer that he has now, and would not match the deal, luxury tax notwitstanding. NY news papers pointed out Dolan's inconsistentcy as he had three player on the current Knicks team making max or almost max. Dolan has billions and could aford the tax. Any way, I think it could have turned out better for Jeremy is he was on the Knicks. However, Melo was upset about the proposed contract and he also demanded that he would distribute the ball. Bad Vibes. Such is life.

 

Of course there is a huge difference.

Last year before the season started and before we got Harden, Lin was the only selling point of that Rockets team as we were preparing to tank for the season.

He was just off to that not long ago Linsanity period at NY, he was the man for this team.

That's one of the reasons why Morey paid that price.

But it got changed once we got Harden, and it was totally changed when we got Howard later.

It was a gmmick last year, but once he came down back to earth and our team actually got improved, the gimmick is no more.

Also, saying the majority of the crowd is Asian in TC is just a joke.

No, there is never any Rockets games with 65-75% Asian attendance.