I'm totally down with someone showing me a convincing argument than that Casspi is better in that role than Jones or D-Mo. However I just don't see it. IMO, he really doesn't speed the tempo up much more, he shoots the three a bit better which is good, but he has a slow release which hurts with closeouts, and he really likes to slash more than shoot. He doesn't rebound nearly as well as Jones, and D-Mo, and can't defend PF's as well in the post. If Casspi had the quick release, and stroke from 3 that Delfino had than I would be totally down, but he doesn't. I think the Casspi supporters here are still floating on the reputation here that he is somehow a Delfino replacement, but he's sadly not been that this year. I wish he had been, but its just not the case. He really isn't Delfino, and he's not the stretch 4 that 2Pat and Morris were last year either. Hamilton... I'm intrigued, but I just don't know why he doesn't seem as engaged as he is some games. I think that's a big reason why he never panned out in Denver. He has some great tools, and he can really rebound the basketball well for his position, but I just don't know. If McHale is already trying Casspi and Garcia out instead of going to you, there's something there that just isn't clicking. Again... I'm not opposed to small ball, but A. Is going small with Asik & Howard on the court really truly going "small-ball"... (AKA being able to run wind sprints up and down the court at a super fast pace?), and B. Are the Rockets subs really going to add anything we haven't already seen this year because color me not impressed.
Terrence Jones 0.9 -1.5 -0.6 6768 - about league average for power forwards. NBA average overall is -0.416. And centers make up for the remaining 0.184. Donatas Motiejunas -0.2 1.3 1.1 2920 I know of no way of segregating out 2014 from the 2013 part of the season using xRAPM, but I feel sure that D-Mo's 2014 stats are much more positive.
2 of the 5 best lineups this season have had Casspi at PF with a traditional PG, Harden, Parsons, and a traditional center. I consider it small ball with Dwight or Asik provided the rest of the team is playing at least a position small.
I highly doubt the average PF is close to 0 considering 5 of the top 8 guys in xRAPM are PFs. Even if you aren't looking at a weighted average, these 5 guys most likely skew the a non-weighted average over 1. Just a quick look at the bottom 20 or so guys, it seems these guys tend to be backup PGs and backup wings for the most part.
Sorry.....but you can't look at teams in a vacuum and think beating them in the regular season when they are dinged up and not at full strength translates to a playoff series victory. For instance, the Spurs. We caught them with multiple significant injuries to their rotation players. Jones is not strong enough to defend against a Splitter/Duncan front line. Nor is he quick enough to defend against a Duncan/Leonard front line. Nor is he smart enough to defend against a Duncan/Diaw front line. But....the Spurs are smart enough to iso Jones defensively and put him in the triple threat, fade off him, play tight on the shooters and force him to beat them from the outside. The same exact scenario plays out when we play the Warriors, Heat, Griz, Clippers, and Thunder. Just look at their front lines.
I could look it up in one of my spreadsheets, but I do not care enough to be honest. You do the work to prove your point. I was just pointing out what I thought to be obvious. Plus, if Jones is only trailing the NBA average by a mere 0.184, to say that Jones is not average is putting very tight bounds on the definition of average. I believe that average in math is generally defined as within one standard deviation of the mean.
Badump badump badump badump Casspi is the best option with our starting lineup if we aren't going to commit to true small ball. True small ball is 2 point guards in the backcourt and Harden and Parsons or another SF up front around the center. Casspi is not a 3. He's not fast or quick enough to to play offense or defense at the 3. Casspi is a small, quick 4. Yes, his release is slow. And yes he guns up too many shots when he is playing from the bench. But...when he starts with the starters...different story altogether. Casspi is given the same wide-open looks that Jones is given that Jones turns down. And Casspi's slow release is a lot more effective than Jones even slower release. Casspi is good enough that he forces the defense to dive out on him which opens up the dribble drive for him. Honestly...Casspi is the best fit at the 4 alongside our starters if we aren't going to go small. He hustles, plays hard, and he's got the better skill set to fit the starting unit. Casspi at the 4 (or even Parsons at the 4 with Garcia or Hamilton at the 3) are better starting options than Jones.
True small ball, by your definition, has been getting killed this year. The best small ball lineup by your definition is -12.4 points for every 100 possessions.
True. And why would any NBA team with two serious paint protecting centers and two highly mobile power forwards (one of whom is huge even by NBA standards) ever go small ball except in very special circumstances?
That is true. Do you know why? Do you know when that lineup was on the floor and against who? Do you know the circumstances? And if you're gonna just look at 5-man units...go to the top. There sits Casspi with our starters.
If your goal is to build the best team possible while spending the least, I guess that's swell. But if you actually want to win something significant, that doesn't really mean a whole lot. If 'flexibility' is more important than winning championships, I guess this makes you happy.
"Do you know why? Do you know when that lineup was on the floor and against who? Do you know the circumstances?" Either way, you're wrong. According to NBA.com, our best lineup in terms of +/- is Howard, Motiejunas, Parsons, Harden, and Beverley. The next one after that is the same lineup with TJones replacing DMo.
Casspi is better fit then Dmo and TJ. it not who the better player but who fit better with the team. all 3 have different skill sets and different streangth and weaknesses so it hard to compare true DMO and TJ have better post game in offence , but with D12 and Asik is the post the spacing and range casspi bring is much more effective. in defence casspi proven he can handle the post and that he have MUCH BETTER perimeter defender then Dmo and TJ Casspi when play is in Rockets best defensive layup according to the statistics (as posted in the form numerous time)
Tight bounds on average? over 20 starting PFs and at least 9 backups accounting for probably half the PF minutes have a higher xRAPM than DMo. Without specific minute splits, hard data, it is impossible to calculate an accurate standard deviation. It is anything, but obvious to assume TJ is average. From your own post. .SG #1 in the NBA Center #1 in the NBA SF top 15 in the NBA PG top 20 in the NBA PF Houston we have a problem How is "Houston we have a problem" at PF possible if it is obvious that Jones is an average PF and DMo, by that rational, is an above average PF?
Yes, I do. If you are going to look at +/- data, you need to look at that in terms of per possession or per 100 possessions.
I've seen small by by your definition used in a bunch of situations, but lately, the Rockets use it very sparingly. Mostly used when the opponents go small or the Rockets are in foul trouble. The Rockets have not used it effectively lately against a big unit (when opponent is playing a PF and a center) that I can recall. I do not know why it isn't working. The Rockets just aren't scoring well in small ball by your or my definition of it. Without the scoring boost in small ball, it isn't worth the defensive and rebounding drops.
And every reference I have made to D-Mo's performance has been to the 2014 year. In 2013 he was just miserable. There is no way to separate out D-Mo's 2014 xRAPM data. But other data is certainly available. And yes, the power forward position is the weakest on the Rockets roster, at least before Bev's injury. But Houston is rolling with what they have. No sane coach is going to play Casspi against Blake, Bosh, West, Duncan, LMA etc. etc. etc. And that is what the Rockets will be facing in the playoffs. So what it really comes down to is that there is a bevy of really really good power forwards on serious playoff contenders. And Houston will have the advantage in every match up at the 5 and 2. No team in the West in the second round is going to have the advantage at every position. Against the Thunder most teams will surrender the advantage at 3 positions. It is what it is. We are fans. We have to live with it.
D-Mo's stats since 2/1/14. Pay special attention to that defensive rating people. And the net rating. It perhaps is the key to success in the playoffs.
Casspi on most backup PFs, even on playoff teams, is not too bad. Casspi on LMA, Dirk, Lee, Ibaka, Battier is not too bad either.
