The Houston Rockets Are The Perfect Example Of Why Tanking Works In The NBA

There are still posters here who stubbornly cling to the idea that Morey tried to tank last year before the Harden trade.

Our expected W/L last year was 50-32. The difference between Harden and KMart + Lamb isn't 20-30 wins. At most, it's around 10. We still probably would have won between 35 and 40 games last year without the Harden trade.

 

The Rockets did tank, but not when the article suggests they did. They tanked in the 80s in order to get the twin towers.

 

Stupid article that tries to redefine what tanking is. Tanking is the practice of loosing as many games as possible to get the best draft pick possible, nothing else.

 

The Vegas over/under before the Harden trade was 28. After the Harden trade it was 34. Asik and Harden were much much better players than anyone expected. So yes, Morey was intending to tank. You are depending on calculations that factor in actual performance, not expected performance.

 

Vegas odds aren't based on statistical models of projected player performance, they reflect betting trends. Morey and the FO knew how good Asik was. He likely expected a better performance from Lin, who would have spent more time on the ball had we not traded for Harden.

There may have been an incremental step back from the 2009-12 teams, but there was no way we were bottoming out last year.

 

Are you one of those people who have no concept of time and date? Just asking because by the time tanking occurred McHale had proved himself equal to (the current) Adelman, who certainly has not been on top of the game for many years.

 

Adelman wasn't even fired. His contract expired and they spent three days trying to work out an extension. RA was still pissed over the Battier trade and his lack of input in personnel moves. If he truly wanted to come back, he'd still be the coach.

 

You do realize that Vegas odds are by far and away the most accurate method of forecasting results in the NBA? Nothing else even comes close. It has to do with the wisdom of crowd sourcing predictions. I think I have the bookmarks to the scientific papers somewhere.

 

I don't think "tanking" means what you think it means article writer. The Rockets' "tank job" didn't completely embarrass their franchise and turn off their fan base all in hopes of getting the #1 pick.

 

Agreed. He's describing "rebuilding", not tanking.

 

In Morey we trust.

 

And Vegas odds, and in fact all forecasting systems, are limited without significant data samples to work with. In our case, Asik was a first time starter who had never played 1000 minutes in a season, Parsons was a second year player, and Lin only had 25 NBA starts under his belt.

I guarantee you that going into the season, the expectations of Morey and staff were far more bullish than Vegas'.

 

Making the outcome losing money is one of the best ways to remove literally every other bias you have.

He traded Lowry for a lottery pick, let Dragic walk and replaced him with someone with virtually no experience (hi philly), amnesty'd Scola, the guy who had kept us afloat as much as anyone.

Martin is literally kryptonite to winning close games plus he was an expiring, and Asik is an interesting case, given his contract, his first deadline would have been the best time to trade him away and would have sunk us especially if moved with Martin's expiring in different directions ala Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner.

 

Could be, but I personally do not base my arguments on speculation. No I do not think less of you for doing it. In limited quantities. It just is not my style.

 

Tanking is losing on purpose, whether it be because you tell them to lose or you pull the roster apart so they don't have the ability to win.

That's the only definition of tanking. Getting the number 1 pick is tanking.

Going down in order to go up has similarities, but it's not the definition of tanking.

 

Let's keep it real. We didn't tank for a draft pick, but we did tank to a strong degree. We purposely got worse, in order to have a brighter future. Going young (from an overall roster standpoint) is a huge element in tanking.

Think about it, no Harden trade...we would've been terrible last season.

We didn't totally bottom out, but we did tank. And, it was absolutely the right thing to do.

 

Lol no, the Rockets did not tank...remember the acquisition of Samuel Dalembert? That was as anti-tanking as a move can get.

 

NBA wise, it's purely a term. By definition, if only one team can tank a year, then it would be impossible to tank in the NBA, period. No one team can predict that they'll get the 1st overall pick. All they can do is throw games to help their chances. How you go about doing that determines the degree.

 

People who don't think the Rockets tanked. Just look at the stats and records of Phoenix with Dragic and Toronto with Lowry. Just remember that Morey let Dragic go because of a Player Option.