[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

Lars already addressed this quite well but I'll throw in my two cents.

It's not black and white. Just because Clutch's stats are more valid than simple W/L doesn't make them the MOST valid. And just because variables always come into play doesn't mean all stats are automatically discredited. It's not cut and dry like that.

And before my last post I never said anything about what I thought about who starts. I was simply interjecting why I think win/loss isn't the best statistic for this discussion. Plain and simple. And Like Lars said, the metrics that contribute to win/loss would be more appropriate, no?

As for me. Yes, I want to see wins. I could care less about who starts as long as both players are playing well. Lately that has been the case. If you want to use win/loss as the measurement of choice that's totally fine.

 

I can't believe I forgot to address that.

Yes, it does. In a large enough sample size, if those numbers Clutch and Lars posted played out for an entire season (and assuming none of the four control starters were injured), Pat would yield more wins than Jeremy in the starting line up.

 

Bev gives you less turnovers and better defense for a starting lineup that needs exactly that.

Harden turns the ball over too much, as does Dwight. The Rockets need the better player with the second unit who can run an offense. I am curious to see what Harden/Dwight's minutes are when Jeremy starts. I would assume that they play more when Bev is out for the fact they need more offense on the court with the second unit.

 

Give me 3 examples of variables that affect W/L only and not lineup stat.

 

I am not advocating who to start. Look at my first post in this thread.

I am only opining on stat analysis and common sense here.

 

I like Beverley in the starting group, but to say Lin is at best "a mediocre bench player" suggests factors other than basketball knowledge may be affecting your judgement.

 

How many minutes does that starting lineup average? How long is a basketball game?

 

The Rockets win more games when Ronnie Brewer plays. He deserves to start.

We win 70% of the games he plays and 67% of the ones he hasn't played in. Stats don't lie. He should start.

 

I understand that. And you believe wins and losses is the most valid statistic to judge a players contribution to the starting lineup. I can't think of any other easy example aside from my widget scenario so I guess we'll just agree to disagree.

 

Thank you.

 

I want the Rockets to win, too. However, their winning percentage with Lin starting is 72%. For the winning percentage with Bev starting to beat that, they can only lose 6 games after the all-star break. So unless you are hoping for injury, it is probably not going to happen this season.

If it does happen, Rockets will be contending this year and we should all be ecstatic.

 

I am not even saying that. I am just saying W/L and lineup stat share a lot of shortcomings. I would look at both without a better alternative. Why do we have to settle on one?

 

David Aldridge on NBATV just said the Rockets will "probably move Omer Asik".

 

The intimidating list of teams Jeremy Lin has beat while Patrick was out:

Dallas
Utah
San Antonio (13pts, 8 assists)
Memphis (without the DPOY)
New Orleans
New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers
Washington
Boston
New Orleans
Milwaukee
Washington

Signature wins, I tell you.

Patrick Beverly is the better player. And deserves to start.

 

Quit flame baiting and trolling. Wins are wins. Sigh. You act as if a win against Washington doesn't count.

And if you truly believe Bev is the better player then thats your opinion but I will agree to disagree. Though I highly doubt you are being serious.

 

Just out of curiousity, but what's the list of signature wins against intimidating teams that Beverley has beat while Jeremy was out?

 

The Numbers are clear. Reggie Jackson deserves to start over Michael Westbrook. The OKC Thunder are vastly better when Jackson starts.

http://stats.nba.com/teamLineups.ht...onType=Regular Season&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25

 

Why don't you go through Panda's video.
Explain it play by play, how it is Lin's fault.

 

When Lin was out in Nov/Dec, the Rox went 8-5. they had wins over Atlanta (game he got hurt in) Brooklyn, San Antonio, Golden State (twice), Orlando, Chicago, and Detroit.

They lost to Utah, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, Indiana

 

Actually bro you just summarized my point. Harden is the real reason of jeremy being on bench. I dont believe that they cant co exist on the floor. Last year rox best wins were big blowouts led by jlin harden combo. I respect your opinion in which playstyle you think is better. Isoball or ball movement. Harden is already an allstar but to me it doesnt matter how many numbers he puts up. He'll never gonna be a superstar if his not gonna work hard on d. Its really starting to get annoying that all of his match up on the opponents team are putting career high stats. And last thing if his IDGAF attitude is gonna get worse. It gonna ruin the team chemistry. The team's star player have the biggest impact on the teams morale.