[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

Nope. But if you compare Chalmers and his back up and see who has more wins as starters I guess you can say who is better.

The point I was trying to make when I posted that stat is that in no way is the stats Clutch posted the rock solid proof some of you make it out to be. If those stats are valid why not the W-L numbers? Don't those matter more?

I think its debatable. And the point of pointing out that Lin wins more as a starter is simply to point out the stats may not say what you think it says, and it certainly isn't conclusive.

 

No he's not. Harden just floats around and takes chances on steals and tries for the great plays. I don't what you're talking about DMo.

The one time I saw DMo trying to help was when Harden floating around in the paint. Ariza had already made 5 threes what the hell is he doing helping dwight guard Gortat up high. DMo has his man down low. He leaves his man and to help on Ariza but Harden had no business floating out in no mans land. He wasn't helping on wall he was close to Gortat but Howard didn't need any help.

Just stupid defense all the way around. He did start guarding him for the last 3 threes but Ariza was on fire by then and Harden gave him enough space to continue. Hey I love Harden. He helped us win the game he helped us almost lose. Greatest game of the year but if would just focus on D more we would be so much better. The way he handled D on Ariza was all on him. At least after Ariza knocked down 5 of them he should have been married to him.

 

And if we compared net ratings as clutch did then LOH must also come to the conclusion that Chalmers is the best. /s


No one is saying any of those things. Quit trolling this thread and flame baiting. Stop generalizing rockets fans into Lin only fan/hater groups.

 

It's not just the defense.

 

Dude, trolling and flame baiting is what FTW Rockets FTW does! That's like asking water not to be wet.

 

Seriously? The dude has hit what, 6/7 3s and for the stretch I pointed out Harden is basically letting Ariza walk to the 3pt line. You said you thought it was off dribble penetration. I'm just saying its not too much to ask for just a bit more urgency from Harden defensively given the dude he's guarding is shooting the lights out.

Then we have posters saying its Lin's fault that Ariza went off. Well that would be the case of Wall was constantly breaking down the defense, everyone rotating etc and Ariza was getting wide open. But it wasn't the case, unless your idea of dribble penetation is not getting past the 3pt line. This isn't an isolated incident, Harden simply needs to play better defense, because he's a capable defender when he's engaged, hes a genuine 6'5, big wingspan, strong as an ox, there's absolutely NO REASON why he can't as least be a decent defender

 

You're missing the point. At the end of the day wins and losses ARE more important to the team but those statistics cannot be used to accurately judge whether one player makes a team "better" or not. Too many variables in a game to quantify.

Let's say you work on the assembly line for a company that makes widgets and you happen to get injured on the job. While you're out, the company launches a huge ad campaign and sales rise 75%. Is the temp who took your place for two weeks a better employee than you? Should he get your job? If you only have the statistic over overall sales it's impossible to measure something as minute as one individuals contribution to the whole.

So it's not a valid (statistical definition) statistic to rate what we're trying to rate here. Namely, whether Pat or Jeremy should be starting.

The statistics Clutch originally used compared a sample where all four starters played with Lin and Beverley. The four starters are the control. He then sampled almost the same total of minutes played and showed how it affected the starting lineup. Pace, turnovers, rebounding, Asst%, TS%, etc. Those are more valid (again, statistically) to use in an argument about which player is better for a group of other players.

 

yep. people just don't get it. i wish everyone saw it this way.

 

I am not sure whether you get the point or not. How does Clutch's stat adjust for variables such as Home vs. Away, opponent caliber, back to back games, injuries, Harden's strip club tab the previous night, etc?

 

I accounted for some of those variables here:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=8621288#post8621288

The outcome is the same.

 

Sigh. Yes, those are variables that weren't specific in the original post. But you just proved MY point, that simple/broad statistics aren't valid metrics in this argument. You agree that there are too many variables to use W/L as a valid metric. That's all I'm saying.

And Lars just answered your question.

 

You adjusted for quality of competition? That's one step closer I guess, but it is just one variable and not that important actually.

Do you guys not see what the most important variable is? Remember, Lin and Bev basically accumulated those minutes in all different games since Lin only starts when Bev or Harden is injured. The most important driver of lineup performance or W/L is simply team performance, or how the other four guys were playing at the time. This team plays well in one game and badly in the next, especially early in the season. If it was a blowout either way, it would have been a blowout if you replaced Lin with Bev or vice versa. If it was a close game, it would still have been a close one. One guy plays in a blowout win and the other plays in a close win, you could have a big difference in point differential. So was Bev benefiting from good team performance or was he causing good team performance? It is difficult or impossible to answer. You just hope it all evens out when sample size gets large and you may be able to tell.

If you want to think it is Bev that makes Harden shoot 3's better or Howard make FTs better in some games, that's your opinion. I may think you are thinking too little of the max players.

 

I thought for sure you were going to play the "McHale is inconsistent" card. And I would be inclined to agree. I wasn't inferring that Clutch had the end all be all of statistical trump cards. I do think it's more valid than simple W/L, but as you pointed out there are so many causality questions that it's a giant pain to break it down scientifically.

I'm just happy we're winning. THAT is a fact

 

Almost all variables that affect W/L affect lineup stats. We were talking about two stats that suffer the same deficiencies. Either they are both valid or they are both invalid. You can not discredit one and credit the other.

If you want to talk about adjustment to the stats, see my previous post.

And ultimately why do you care about who is starting? You want Rockets to win more games, don't you? That's why W/L is a valid stat to use. Does good starting lineup stats automatically give you more wins? I am afraid not.

In the end, both stats are valid and both have shortcomings. Sample size is too small. No conclusion can be drawn here.

 

McHale? I am not interested in discussing him. The team has been inconsistent and I suppose we can agree on that.

 

I like the way it is right now. Lin in the starting units doesn't make any sense since the offense goes like Dwight > Harden > CP25 > Jones > >>>>> Lin.

Why would anyone want to put Lin in he starting line up when he is the 5th option.

You put Bev in there for his energy and intangibles. Sure, the opponents don't have to spent effort on D against PBev, but the team's defense gets better.

Lin comes in and destroy their second units, and Mchale can use 3 guards rotation depending on the situation. when Harden rest Lin and Bev can do their thing us the PB&J.

All in all, Lin should not be starting with Harden but should play significant minutes. Especially in the 4th

 

Win / Loss contains 1000 other variables and cannot be traced to one variable, specifically who starts.

Lineup data focus on what causes win loss, ie PPP performed and given up, since that is the underlying cause of win/loss. It eliminates alot of the noise in the model and gives a better picture of which is the better fit. That is not debateable. And the moment the Beverley lineups start showing the better W/L numbers, and it will, the same LOF's will start dismissing it and find some other straw to grasp.

 

Awesome, you have no concept of team. You'll never understand any argument in this entire thread until you do.

I don't think the wide open passes he was getting where the defense had to sink in to help on Wall happen with Beverly. A less aggressive Wall makes Ariza's offensive skill set, much easier to guard.

I'm not arguing that Harden is a brilliant defender, but pg defense effects his defense.

Were you unable to read the stats Clutch identified? To be they were clearly "clear".

Fantastic post. I love that Lin has the desire to have the ball at the end of games. His ability to score in the clutch is the entire reason that last offensive set worked. The defense's respect of Lin freed up Harden. Thank you, Lin! This is something Beverly just cannot do.

Copy^^^^/Paste.

Fixed.

Lin is every bit the lazy defender that Harden is. Lin is a pure offensive player, hence, coming off the bench as an offensive spark plug.

Also a fantastic post. Thx.

 

I don't care who starts. I just want both to be healthy at the same time, especially Bev because he brings a certain energy to the team that no one else does.

 

Indeed- I hope Bev's aggressive style of play can continue and that it's not the reason for him being kinda injury prone this season (playing more minutes in that style).