The NFL says the salary cap is X. There are no exceptions. Salary for a year is the base salary plus any prorated bonuses. For example, if a player makes 5 million base in a given year in a 5 year contract that had a 10 million signing bonus. 7 million (5 +10/5) would count against cap that year. If a player is cut, any guaranteed money that has not previously been counted against cap (e.g. signing bonus) either counts in the year of the cut or is divided between that year and the year following depending on when cut and if team wants to defer the dead money. I may be slightly off here, but you should get the overall concept that if a player is paid money by a team, team has to count it at some point even if they cut player. When you hear about players restructuring deals, it is generally done by turning base salary into a bonus that then gets prorated throughout the remainder of the contract. Occasionally, a veteran (e.g. a certain blocking receiver) is forced to take a paycut instead of getting cut.
There aren't even cap experts in the media. You need lawyers and full disclosure on contracts. It isn't easy to pick apart like the NBA and it's not as fun. I'm serious. There are very few NFL cap gurus out there. There are GM's that want to meet with Morey because not even the people working for these franchises know how to manage their cap.
I am expecting the cap to go up with higher revenues , the teams I am curious about are the SB Champs and the Niners who have to pay big $$ to their young QB's.Curious how the great defenses will be affected.
The NFL cap is no more convoluted than the NBA cap. The only difference is that NFL front offices, coaches, and fans in general do not care about analytical side of things. This has less to do with it being difficult and more to do with people not caring. Take clutchfans for example. The same fanbase that can come up with infinite scenarios on how to clear capspace for Dwight Howard, will also say things like "The Texans can't sign Peyton Manning" or "The Texans need to save money for JJ Watt" without any basis for why they think that way. I also strongly disagree on the "fun" part of the NFL salary cap. Morey has been pushing for a NFL style cap for the NBA for a while. When Morey got fined for telling Bill Simmons what he wanted for the CBA, he basically outlined something similar to the NFL cap. Which is: Hard cap, no rules under it. The NFL cap has much higher flexibility and rewards smart, forward thinking more than basketball or baseball(the latter mostly due to lack of cap period).
It doesn't sound too complicated. Each year you have x dollars to spend with a little bit of wiggle room. Contracts are divided into base salary and bonuses. Bonuses are dividend by the years on the contract or whatever is agreed to. If you cut a player or trade a player all that bonus becomes due in that year. If you have a player with 10/mil year base + 15 mill bonus over three years they get paid 15 mil 1st year (10 base 5 bonus). If they get cut after that year then they get paid 10 next year as the rest of their bonus comes due, but they don't get their base. The team saved 5 mil on the cap since instead of having 15 mil cap figure they have a 10mil cap figure meaning they have 5 mil to spend in free agency. Anyone with basic ability to do spreadsheets or keeping track of things should be able to do it.
The NFL cap is ultimately not a pressing issue because of guaranteed salary vs total value of life of contract. You have 52 guys you can potentially restructure to help accommodate 1. In the NBA and MLB contracts are fully guaranteed and therefore players usually have to be traded to clear space. Read a recent article that explained how the Cardinals recently restructured Larry Fitzgerald's deal to clear up 7 million dollars without LF losing a penny.
You cant predict a damn thing cap-wise. Rarely have I seen any experts dissect a team in the offseason, then have their cap analysis come true. Players are cut, even good players, hell, especially good players, others are extended, money is shifted around overnight, contract structures evolve overnight - it's pure chaos. With the NBA, you sign a guy, you know he'll be around for x years or have an option, etc... in the NFL? There are no set rules to go by. You're not dealing with a strict set of rules, you're dealing with a dynamic contract. Impossible to accurately forecast NFL cap situations or give insightful commentary. Impossible. It's lawyers changing contract structures, players pretending to be hurt, franchise tag numbers that evolve and new coaches cutting 30% of the team.
Here's a cap question, and I'll related it to the Texans as an example. The Texans sign Ed Reed. The Texans release Ed Reed. The Jets sign Ed Reed. Does Ed Reed still count against the Texans' cap? Hypothetical related question. The Texans cut Schaub. The Jags sign Schaub for half of what his Texans contract would have paid him. Does that affect the Texans' cap at all?
Texans paid Ed Reed for all games he played and paid a signing bonus. All that money counts against Texans cap. What Jets paid him, counts against Jets cap. Texans have paid Schaub 10.5 million that hasn't been accounted for against salary caps from signing bonus. If the Texans cut him today, that 10.5 million counts against the 2014 salary cap. I think if he is a June cut, the Texans can spread the 10.5 million over the 2014 and 2015 salary caps.
I'll just use Reed as an example of the NFL salary structure. If you have trouble understanding how the numbers came to be, google "accelerated signing bonus." Basically Reed's salary from a cap standpoint is as follows. There are details like roster bonus involved, but that's more for players to force a team to make a decision on a certain date. Like "cut me before this date so I have time to find another team" kind of thing. Not important in terms of cap structure. 2013: $3.33mil(2.33 guaranteed) 2014: $5.33mil(1.33 guaranteed) 2015: $6.33mil(1.33 guaranteed) If Reed had been cut/traded in the following seasons, his cap hit is as follows. Before the 2013 season started: $5mil to the 2013 cap, which is all of the guaranteed money he's owed 2013: $3.3 cap hit to 2013 cap, which is his salary of that year, and $2.7mil to 2014 cap, which is the combined guaranteed money in 2014 and 2015 2014: $5.33 cap hit to 2014 cap. And $1.33mil to 2015 cap If Reed played out his entire contract, he'd have been paid $3.33, $5.33, and $6.33 for a total of $15mil. Which was the term of his contract.
You make a good point. Thanks for that. I think you're on the right track. I don't think, however, that they will lose MANY good players... maybe one on D and one on O, but not many. It will be raised, however, because they're noticing that younger players are doing very well.
