Here's my thoughts: The Rockets aren't gonna do anything until the air starts clearing in Clipperland. The first shoe to drop is gonna be Brand. Is Sterling gonna try to sign him to long term deal. Is Brand going to tell Sterling that he is gonna take the standard one year deal like Kandi did last year? If Brand does that, he can force Sterling's hand. I think he just might do it. I don't think Brand is gonna even consider signing with Sterling long term unless there is a solid plan in place to really build a winner and even then it is gonna be a touch sell coming from Sterling. If Sterling knows he is gonna lose Brand in one year, it will be interesting to see if he negotiates to move him, or if he lets him walk like Kandi is going to do. I can't see Sterling letting him walk in a year. I think he will start looking at trade options that will give him the most value and that Brand will agree to. Brand holds the keys though, he has the leverage. If Brand forces Sterling's hand, I think the Rockets will make a play for him with some combination of Eddie, Cato, and possibly Rice, Cat, Boki and TMo in return for Brand and either Miller or Odom. If Brand decides to sign with the Clips long term or if they agree to let him sign the one year deal and then walk, then I think the Rockets will start looking elsewhere for help, any miriad of trade combinations that they are comfortable with. But I don't see anything happening until Brand's situation is cleared up. It may be that Brand would fall in our laps and the odds are better of that happening than anything else because after all, it is the Clippers here. If nothing breaks out with the Clippers, I would suspect that the Rockets will place a call to the Wolves about KG, but I think they will be turned down cold. KG just ain't goin anywhere. Next on the docket would be Atlanta, New York, Memphis, and Miami who are actively looking to get better and will probably be looking for deals. Toronto would be a possible trade partner too along with Indiana and Chicago although Chicago's situation is a little different since their GM is new. It's hard to say what Paxson is gonna do there. And possibly Portland may be looking to deal although I can't see them doing anything to help any team in the West. Bottom line, the Rockets are gonna wait on Brand. I think if he is available and wants to come to Houston that the Rockets will make a serious run at getting him. I think this lineup would be a top 4 seed in the West Francis Mobley Odom Ming Brand Or Miller Francis Posey Ming Brand
I would really like to see Odom and Brand here also next season, but I dont see it happening. We would have to give up a lot to get those guys. I dont think mobley and griffin would be enough.
There are loads of thems who can out-bid us for Brand/Miller/Odom. Has Brand even ever hinted at wanting to come to Houston?
If I were Brand I would look to come to San Antonio. Sad to say but San Antonio has done the near impossible fully reloaded while going deep into the playoffs year after year. Parker, Ginobili and Jackson. All they need is a young replacement for Robinson and they are perhaps the next dynasty.
It is not Brands choice to "sign" with the Clipps or not. The 4th year of a rookie scale contract is a team option. If it has not already been done, the option can/will be excercised between August 1 and October 1. Once that option is excercised, Brand will become a restricted FA and can be bid on by other teams. If he accepts a bid by another team, the Clipps have his Bird Rights and enough cap space to match the offer and lock him in Clipperdom for 6 or 7 years. Again, the choice is not Brands. The Rockets do not, I repeat do NOT have enough trade bait to put the best offer on the table to the Clipps for Brand. Go look at some EC depth charts and you will easily see this.
My sanity in the offseason will hinge on people in the forum actually realising we have no chance of getting someone like Brand, Kidd, Garnett, Etc. Etc.
well said. the rox have no chance of getting brand with a bunch of scrubs. no offense, but mobley is overrated to some extent and griffin has turned out to be a big bag of nothing so far. cato is the best backup center in the league, but hes a backup. to think you could get brand + odom or andre miller is REALLY laughable. sterling in his history has never shown a propensity for taking on big contracts so why in the world would he take on glen rice and kelvin cato? both of them make over $7M per year, and the highest he's ever paid anyone was a 1 year deal this year ($6M) for Olowokandi. wake up and smell reality, chances are if you do get brand it will be thru FA not a sign and trade for a bunch of overpaid players. they aren't the new york knicks here, they are the clippers.
There would be some demand out there for Cuttino and EG and Cato. We turned down offers for EG at the trade deadline, but RT and CD seemed to wanna cling to their 3-#1-draft-picks power forward. I don't know if that will stay true now that the heat is really on.
GATER - I agree with it all, just wanted to make one minor correction. Brand (like Francis) just completed his fourth season - the Clippers had exercised that team option on the fourth season last October. He is a restricted free agent this summer, as you said. The Clips can sit back and match any offer.... or Brand can do like Olowokandi and take a one-year tender offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2004 (not sure if this is something the Clippers have to offer or if Brand can take it regardless). I don't think the Rockets will get Brand, but with the Clippers there is always some sliver of hope because they have a million and one things they can do. They have young, signed guys to play a lot of positions, including power forward - Wilcox was a power forward taken ahead of Stoudemire in last summer's draft. Sterling is bottom-of-the-barrel cheap, and I don't think he will change one bit (reportedly he will make a franchise-record $30 million this year as a result of quite a bit of attendance and luxury tax revenue - this despite having a selfish, terrible team loaded with young talent). I don't think it's a ridiculous idea to think Sterling <I>may</I> be attracted to Mobley and Griffin, given their relatively low contracts and 2-3 years left on their deals (player and team options). In the end, I bet the Clippers put the pressure on Brand to go out and seek deals on the market. Reportedly Brand turned down a 6-year, $60 million offer last year from the Clips, but the Clips rejected his counter-proposal for a deal just under the max. No idea if this disappointing season changed anything for Elton or not as to willing to play for the Clippers long-term, but a max deal could have gotten it done then. But when it comes down to it, if the Clips decide to trade Brand, my guess is they will be attracted to more cheap lottery picks rather than players with years in the league.
Clutch, good post. When I saw this thread I was going to post my thoughts but you pretty much said the things that was on my mind. With the Clippers there always is a chance. The Rockets do have some potential/quality players with cheap contracts that the Clippers might be interested in. It could happen. But like you said I tend to believe that draft picks would be something the Clippers would look at first. The Clippers are going to lose Kandi for nothing this summer. I doubt they do the same thing with Brand next summer. Something is going to happen with Brand this summer.
The air won't clear until after the draft. You might see Brand move for Carmelo or LBJ. Good lord, what if the Clips land them outright? After they screw up the draft, then the Clips thing will shake out. Rox don't make a BIG move until Aug/Sept, or maybe even mid-season. Get ready for summer league ball.
Can Brand sign for the contract and demand to be traded like what Pippen did? (Thats if he signs with the Clippers)
Clutch - Thanks for not smacking me too hard for missing the 4 year count. Regarding the value of Mobley to Sterling, I guess what no one can really determine is "how cheap is cheap"? Cat is scheduled for 4 more years at $22.6m which sounds "cheap" by NBA standards. But to my knowledge this is way more than any FA signing under Sterling - Piatkowki's 4 years @ $10.2m. I am not going to say Brand is an impossibilty, but to avoid disappointments in these areas I try to set a reasonable level of expectation. Otherwise, it gets highly speculative. IMO, the only route with creedence is to send Griffin and Mobley to the EC for better values (not necessarily better players) and some picks. And that's still very speculative. I can wait two more months.
Exactly. If you have enough 1st round draft picks, The Clippers will listen. Sterling just wants to get the most production out of the most affordable contracts -- rookie contracts.
Has Brand ever indicated that he's interested in Rockets? If he demands to be traded to somewhere, I bet that there are teams more attactive to him than us currently. And I also bet that there are teams who can come up with a better and more attractive offer to Sterling than our offer of Mobley and Griffin.
The reason why he would be interested in Cato is because he only makes $7 million and is a top 20 NBA center right now! He just got through paying Kandi Man $6 million. Look, I'm not saying Sterling is gonna do anything. I'm not saying the Rockets will have the best offer if Sterling decides to do something. I'm just saying that I dont' see the Rockets doing anything major until the smoke clears in Clipperland. And whoever said that Brand does not have leverage doesn't know what they are talking about. If Brand and Sterling do not agree to a deal by August 1, what happens? Brand has leverage. It is basically up to Brand what he wants to do, how he wants to play this thing out, barring Sterling deciding not to negotiate a long term deal with him. All I am saying is that I don't think the Rockets are gonna make any major deals until the situation with Brand is sorted out. And what are all these teams that will offer the Clippers more than the Rockets? What does Utah have to offer? What other teams are interested and for what? Rice? Cato? Rice has an expiring contract. Eddie is on his rookie deal. Cato is a good center for $7 million when you look around the league, when you look at the Clippers roster, and when you look in the draft as to what is available at the 5. Once again, I'm not saying we are going to get Brand. And I have never said or even heard that Brand is interested in coming to Houston. I think it is a little bit of a pipe dream myself. I think Brand and Odom or Miller is fantasy land. But it is fun to fantasize. And I think if I were Brand, I would want out in the worst way...........unless he is convinced that Sterling is actually gonna build a team. And I think the Rockets know the possibilities and are gonna prefer to wait and see what materializes, first with Brand, then with Odom and Miller.
"In the end, I bet the Clippers put the pressure on Brand to go out and seek deals on the market. " I kinda see it the other way Clutch. I think Brand is gonna put pressure on the Clippers. Either sign him to a max deal or he is gonna take the 1 year tender and be totally free next year. Why not take the one year tender, and get an insurance policy against a career ending injury. And then if they don't want to max him out, they are gonna either let him sign the one year tender and walk, or they are gonna look to move him. Whatever the case, I don't see the Rockets making any major moves until his situation is cleared up.............................barring one small possibility..................some team is willing to bowl the Rockets over with an offer that is too good to turn down. But that second one is unlikely unless it comes from the Clippers.
