Don't discount Seattle or Golden state, or even the Nuggets for that matter. I just hope Yao and Griffin developes and we finally clinche a spot.
After being swept by the Spurs, the Lakers, degenerate into name calling, fingetr pointing, selfish play, and players and coach abandoning the team. Which will free up a playiff spot for the Rockets. Yea!
The Jazz and Blazers are on the decline. As well as the Sonics. The only team mentioned that is getting better is Golden State and I can't see them overtaking the Rockets next year. The only way the Sonics and Warriors leapfrog the Rockets is if the Rockets digress from where they are now, which is possible..........but not probable. If no changes are made and we have the exact same bunch coming back, they will be better than this year, just because of experience, Yao will be stronger, and the others will know better Yao's strengths, plus they are gonna be horsewhipped all off season about selfish play. This team will be better next year, and if we are lucky and they pull off a trade for Odom, Miller, or Brand, we will be much improved. No chance that Golden State and Seattle overtake us, barring major injury to Yao or Steve.
Rox is one of the youngest team. There are several major addition of new players which need time to glue. You may call these as excuse, but they are just one game away from the playoff this year. Rox is far from being a contender, but I see no reason why Rox cannot improve and have a better result next year. If Phx is uprising, then so do Rox. KH --- Positive thinking is good to health
Malone will stay at Utah and try to break Jabbar's scoring record. Sloan will stay too. With the addition of Andre Miller, they are a playoffs team again. Blazers will also continue to be a playoffs team even they lose Pippen unless they decide to blow up the team (which is likely but not definitely will happen). Everyone here (ala homers) say Rockets will improve but so will other teams! We simply can't afford to stand pat and take such a "hope for best" or "hope others fallen" lazy and unambitous attitude. Lakers standed pat last summer while watching Spurs and Kings improved. See where it got them. Lakers are likely to lose their title despite Kobe's improvement as a player.
The same can be said about Warriors. They are a younger team than us. They had a new coach and new players which need time to gel. They're just 2 games (?) away from us. And they have a 1st round pick (which could very well be an impact player in this year's deep draft if they're lucky) and we don't. If they get Arenas back, I see no reason why they cannot improve. Actually the above same can be said about Grizzlies etc etc too.
Well your exact same kind of thinking must have prompted those ridiculous pre-season 50+ wins predictions, just based on a 45-win season 2 years ago, right? While the young guys will undoubtedly improve (well actually not a guarantee, see Griffin's non-improvement from last season to this season), the old guys will get a year older as well. Older usually means more injury-prone and the level of play will fallen. So as likely as the likes of Yao will improve with more experience, the odds of Mobley, Taylor, Rice, Cato or Moochie getting injuried or getting worse as a player also become higher. So that basically canceled each other out. If nothing changes at the Rockets, I expect us to get the same amounts of wins or maybe 2-3 wins at most.
Can't say I agree with that. Malone knows that he won't win an NBA title being the main scoring option in Utah. He'll probably sign with either the Lakers, Spurs, or Mavs for the mid level exception. The Stockton and Malone era is officially over. The Blazers, besides underachieving in the playoffs during Whitsitt's era, have some serious PR issues right now. They're being mocked by their own fans as well as the rest of the NBA, and a major housecleaning is in order. They need to save face, even if it means a trip to the lottery Pippen is gone. Wallace only has one year left on his contract, so he's good trade bait for a team looking to dump salary.
I don't think the Rockets will stand pat, so I expect at least a slight improvement, enough (fingers crossed; horseshoe; rabbit's-foot; four-leaf clover) to make the playoffs. Steve at the 2 is Iverson with a better shot. Trade Cat, get someone who passes. These things will help immensely. Whether or not we grab a better power forward (Rice + EG for SAR? could be revisited) I don't want to hope too much.
Absolutely agree. IMO, the Jazz have enough cap space (no current max contracts) to get a quality PG & PF this summer. Andre Miller and PJ Brown and the show continues. The Jazz's success is nearly as much about system as it is talent and even w/o Sloan, his assistant Phil Johnson is basically a coaching clone. I know Utah is not every players 1st choice, but $ talks and they have a boatload. "Blow up the Blazers" is a misnomer. I believe they have Pippens' Bird Rights making a possibility for a SnT favorable to both which may get Pippen to a contender and for more than the MLE. Not sure if Wallace excercised his $16+M Player Option, but if he turns down the guaranteed $, he is basically in the same boat as Pippen...MLE's or a favorable SnT (the other option for both being signing with an under the cap team like DEN, LAC, WAS, UTAH, SAS). The Blazers core 2003-04 contracts are Stoudamire, Patterson, Anderson, Wells, McInnis, Randolph, Woods, D. Davis, Sabonis plus a guaranteed #23 pick. That's a decent roster and I doubt they will be having a Fire Sale. Especially with a new GM. Seattle had a winning record for the second half of 2002-03 and are building around Rashard and Ray Allen. They have 4 centers - Drobnjak (p-opt), James, Potapenko & Booth. These guys could start for half the EC. The Rockets managed a home and home split with Allens' Sonics but I doubt 2-10 will be a usual shooting night for Allen vs the Rox. Right now, the Sonics are picking 12th and could have the Bucks' #14 if conveyed. GS and the Rox had identical 20-21 second half of the season records. While GS needs to handle the Arenas situation, everyone else (excluding Boykins and Mills) is contracted for 2003-04. GS currently has the # 11 pick. Here's a scary thought...DEN drafts LeBron and signs Arenas for around $7m. They now have $20m in cap room to fill out a roster already including Nene, Skita, Ryan Bowen, Rodney White, Vincent Yarbrough and Camby if healthy. Juwan Howard supposedly likes it there. Sorry to come across as a pessimist, but I just don't buy into the "we need more time" logic. The "time" is now and (excluding the Brand and Kidd dreamcastings) the rumored Glen Robinson for Rice's expiring contract type moves won't get it done. IMVHO, without a quality trade, the Rox are in the Lottery again next summer.
IMO Malone's ego is too huge for him to ride some young stars for a * (for him) ring. I think at this stage of career he's more interested in breaking Jabbar's record more than anything. And he won't get enough shots elsewhere to get it done other than at Utah. Besides, Utah can offer him more than anyone. No one will give Malone more than MLE and he knows that while Utah can offer him a little more than MLE, a 5-7m, 2-3 year (is 2 years enough to break that scoring record?) contract which will probably get him stay and Utah can still have enough money to sign Andre Miller. I really think Malone's whining lately about going to another team was a ploy to force the Jazz managment team to offer him more money. Well he's always whining so don't pay attention to him too seriously. Malone + Andre Miller + Jerry Sloan = a playoffs team again.
What's the missing piece? We need to do one of the two things listed below: 1) Swing a trade for someone such as Elton Brand or someone in his class to add one more "star" type player on our team so we can compete with the other teams in the west. I firmly believe that unless you have the VERY best player(s) in the league (Lakers with Shaq and Kobe, Spurs with Duncan) you need more than just 2 star players. Peja, Webber, Bibby - Marbury, Marion, Stoudemire - Nash, Finley, Dirk etc etc. The Rockets need someone to add to Francis and Yao. If they don't then we have to hope that either Francis or Yao or both become TOP stars in this league. This is not going to happen over night which is why another star type player has to be brought in. or 2) Griffin and Nachbar along with Yao and Francis all need serious "personal growth and development" this offseason to improve thier games. They all need to step up their game to the next level. Yao and Francis have to play like all-stars, not just be all-stars by name only. This means that they CONSISTANTLY bring their game everynight. NBA all stars don't have many off night games. Griffin needs to average around a double/double and shoot in the 45% range and Nachbar needs to be a solid bench role player that is in the nightly rotation and contributes. If we do not show this growth we are in trouble and won't make the playoffs. One of those two scenarios needs to happen to take this team to the next level. Additionally the coaches need to step up and teach these players and start to work on a more motion offense to improve our offensive production.
I agree about the Jazz but not about Portland. There is no evidence to suggest that they will implode next year. Their pulling it together and pushing Dallas to a 7th game gave that team a new lease on life. Plus, they are finally rid of their boneheaded GM Whitsitt. They still have more than enough to be back into the playoffs next year - especially if Cheeks returns as coach. If you look at how the Sonics started playing after the big trade with the Bucks, you'll have to conclude that they are on the right path - moreso than Houston. While Houston has the better players, Seattle is the better team. Expect them to get another FA or two in the offseason which will enable them to leapfrog the Rockets. My point here is that there are FUNDAMENTAL problems with the Rockets and their style of play. Unless these problems are addressed by the team management and players, there should be no reason to consider them a playoff team next year. They simply aren't playing the type of basketball necessary to make it into the playoffs in the West. Oh and you can forget about them making a trade for Odom, Miller, or Brand. There is no possiblity of that happening here.
Deuce - A third possibility - Find an underachieving gem. For example... Two summers ago, I suggested (then) Miami FA Bruce Bowen. If the search engine functioned, I could show you how poorly that was received. The reason? Not enough glitz. The vast majority here wanted Glen Rice...that was the missing piece...more O... We have to also think beyond the glitz.
Hopefully, the front office will consider that... Seeing as how Mario Elie was the key acquisition for the runs in the early 90's (tongue firmly in cheek, but he was important), I think we could all learn from that. Given a Yao/Steve focused offense, we would definitely need role players - a Bowen like you suggested would be perfect. However, you can see that everybody wants the front office to hit the home run instead. Who do you think is the 2003 version of Bruce Bowen?
GATER, I think that is a piece, but I don't think that "completely" solves the problem. I see that as something to augment our role players but to take it to the next level we need more than just that. It is along the same lines as Griffin and Nachbar showing more self improvement. However, I am not discounting the importance of finding a gem FA that can come in and make things "click" for the team. Jon Berry or PJ Brown or someone like that. But in the long term, this team needs to either add one more star type player or Francis & Yao have to become more dominating to compensate for the team's shortcomings. Bowen is a great example of someone that over achieves. In fact there are many players on the Spurs roster that do this and that is why they are extremely successful and at the same time have a nice payroll. The Rockets on the other hand are underachieving per their salaries and it is hurting us. We need more over achievers on this team!
It could definitely be tough next year. As some others have pointed out: the Suns were way better when Penny was healthy this year. If he's healthy with the combo of Marion, Amare, and Marbury that now have tasted the playoffs are going to be tough to beat. the Blazers always have major problems every year, but their talent is always enough to get them in the playoffs. the T-Wolves have KG and will again make the playoffs assuming no injury to KG. the Jazz could be in trouble if the lose Malone on top of Stockton. However, if Malone resigns and they get a guy like Andre Miller. Then they stand a good chance. The questions are who are the Rockets going to surpass next year and what will cause this to happen? I think it'll be tough to surpass anyone aside from the Jazz. What will cause us to be that much better next year? We need either a) our personnel to improve their games and/or b) a change in personnel/coaching We could have both or neither happen. I think our best hope lies in Yao dramatically improving next year or a change in personnel. Both are very feasible, but until either shows signs of happening we don't look favored to get in the playoffs.
The Suns are better than the Rockets. Marbury is dominant, Marion is a consistent 20/10 guy with great defense, and Amare is just going to improve. They also have Penny in the backcourt and he's the PERFECT compliment to Marbury. They have heart. They have talent. Look at their record with Penny in the line-up, it's a 6th seed this season. Penny and Amare will be better next season, because this was Penny injury-comeback year and Amare's rookie year. Not to say we won't improve, but their pieces fit together. They are well-built as a team, and have as much talent as we do. We need to somehow land either Elton Brand or ary Payton next this offseason.
Sane, The Suns are exactly 1 game better than us. And while they are 1 game better than us, we were a couple of missed free throws away from sweeping the series from them last year. Amare will improve and so will Yao Ming. You say that Penny is just recovering from his infuries this year and I say MoT is just recovering as well. I don't see how anyone can say that the Suns have somehow jumped way ahead of us as a team when they need to prove it on the floor 1st. They were one game better than us this year and did not have to go through any coaching changes during the season.
