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[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Clutch, Jan 21, 2014.

  1. Pete the Cheat

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    Comparing him against bad players doesn't bolster your argument...
     
  2. Nook

    Nook Member

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    #1 Chicago and Los Angeles both are missing their starting point guards, Lin is not better than Rose or Nash. Further the Bulls back up point guard that is now starting, DJ Augustine has out played Lin since he has been a starter. The Bucks would not bench Knight for Lin because they like his potential long term. So that just leaves the Knicks.

    #2 So that means that Lin would start for 1 team... 3% of the NBA.. Just wow.
     
  3. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Kendall Marshall isn't supposed to even be starting in LA. Further, the Rockets are a better team than the Lakers, they need a better starting point guard than Lin. Hell Beverly only works as a starting point guard if the Rockets have a really good bench and a PF that can shoot from 15 feet and out.
     
  4. wompwomp

    wompwomp Member

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    talk to any laker fan and ask them how nash is doing, even before he was injured. He is an absolute turnstile on d and offensively he is pretty much done. He is not better than lin.

    As for Rose, he is now on his second major surgery and for a guy who hasnt had a chance to develop the other parts of his game because of how athletic he was, that is a huge issue.
     
  5. Dementium

    Dementium Member

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    This is a lazy response designed to troll. He made good points and backed it up with analysis. In any case we all know its subjective. You see what you want to see.

    Rose I give you, Nash, as he is now is kind of subjective. Dude is 40. As for DJ Augustine? Really? You really think if Lin played the same role he wouldn't do better?

    I think most of us who are fair minded about the whole thing can see that Lin is a starter caliber player. The stats back this up. Hes not starting with the Rox because of fit or coaches or whatever, but he can play at the level of a solid starter.
     
  6. Dementium

    Dementium Member

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    Name me an alternative PG that you can get on the market right now that would be better than Lin.

    Lin has many flaws (i.e. turning over the ball, inconsistent defense) but he is also one of the best drivers in the league (top 5), one of the best pick and roll players available and also one of the fastest players in acceleration. And dude is only 25. You can't tell me that with all that he wouldn't start on some teams.
     
  7. fluors

    fluors Member

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    Here are the Rockets stats from the 2013-2014 season (from basketball reference.com).
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2014.html#all_roster

    <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fteams%2FHOU%2F2014.html&div=div_advanced"></script>

    In the Rockets new half court sets, defense is a premium. Beverly & Lin have identical DRtgs (108 points per 100 possessions) with Parsons and Harden slightly better at 107, but Beverly and Lin spend more time chasing the ball and/or the opposing point guards, as well as running around screens and big man picks. Howard's DRtg of 100 is very good. Tjones' 103 is also respectable.

    Another thing, according to the data, Harden and Lin are the best distributors and playmakers on this team (AST%, the % of the teams points made via an assist). This comes as no surprise. The only real surprises are these.
    1) Harden's defense is on par with the rest of our eight man rotation; in fact, Harden, Parsons, Lin, and Beverley are almost identical at 107-108. If Harden's defense is as bad as some think, does that mean that Parsons, Beverley, and Lin are also bad defenders?
    2) Beverley's 111 ORtg (offensive points scored per 100 possessions) is higher than Lin's 108, which is a little surprising. I don't know the analytical reasons but would surmise two causes: Lin's assist rate doubles Beverley's, which reduces scoring opportunities for himself, and, Lin turns the ball over at an alarming 20 TOs per 100 possessions compared to Beverley's efficient 10 TOs per 100 possessions, which also robs him of scoring opportunities.
    3) The highest number of shot attempts this season belong to Harden (646 FGA, with 44% made), Parsons (536 shots making 50% of them), Howard (with 523 FGA and 58% made), and TJones with 380 attempts and 51% made. I'm new here and still learning but it does seem that the role/bench players, who take fewer shots, receive a disproportionately large amount of blame for team losses.

    For those pining for Jimmer Fredette, his DRtg is a whopping 112...higher than all three of our current point guards...not good. (basketball.com) I didn't embed his stats here in this post but yes, he is shooting an impressive 51% from three, but only attempts two per game. In fact, he only attempts 5 shots per game and plays about 11 MPG. How would his skill set be used on this team? Brooks is shooting 41% from three (compared to Fredette's 51%) but is a better defender, so IMO, a wash. Why not use Brooks for instant offense off the bench?

    I like to think, even if wrong, that team chemistry as an integral part of team success. I am in the minority I know but I wish that the powers that be (and fans) could be more patient and give this current lineup and roster more time to jell and mesh. I wonder if the huge drops in FG% for some of our players is due in part to confusion; e.g., the constant changes in player personnel over the last two seasons, the still fluid starting line up, and learning the nuances of the Rockets new offensive half-court sets. There is less flow to this new system and less time to develop a shooting rhythm and muscle memory. The players need more time to adjust to all these changes. So what if it takes a few months? A year, or two? What's the rush? Is the current situation so bad that more new players must be added right away? New acquisitions would only delay the jelling process by another year.
     
  8. Richard Djunk

    Richard Djunk Member

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    Lol, are you drunk? You agreed earlier that Lin could start for Lakers, Bucks, Bulls...
     
  9. Pukimonster

    Pukimonster Member

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    What argument. I wasn't even responding to you

    Kendall Marshall's biggest knock is D. You can fault him for his slow ugly shot but he's 47% from 3 and has hit some clutch 3's including the one that spoiled Rondo's return. Offensively he's a double double in points & assists pretty much every night. Other than that, he has almost elite level court vision and playmaking skills. He gets in the paint, knows where his guys are, changes speeds, does some ridiculous skip passes.

    On D he's a mess. Doesn't know where he's supposed to be, loses his guy, etc. Kendall Marshall is basically Rubio if you made him a step slower, took away his ability to play D, but gave him the ability to shoot.

    Doesn't matter who your 1 is when all McHale wants is the 1-4 to take turns doing dribble drive kick outs. Probably the best thing about trading for Rondo is Rondo will publicly complain about being misused while Lin won't.

    I'm a Laker fan and Nash was pretty much in Lin's situation before he got injured - misused and deferring to a ball dominant 2. First they decided to use him in the Princeton Offense, where instead of running a pnr he'd handoff to the wing, cut through the paint, and run into MWP in the corner. Then they used him as a spot up shooter with Kobe pounding the rock. In that role he lost the ability to shoot. Then he hurt his back in 2 places and is due for medical retirement any day now.
     
  10. Nook

    Nook Member

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    It isn't a lazy response... He named 4 out of thirty teams that he believed Lin would start for, and 2 of those 30 teams were missing their starters (Chicago & LAL) and their backups have arguably been playing as well as Lin.

    There is no reason to believe Lin would be "a solid starter", he would be a below average starter, if not a poor starter. The fact is the Rockets have a bad point guard rotation. They have two bench players.

    I like Lin as a leader off the bench, but this idea that Lin would be a "solid starter" is simply false. If he were a "solid starter" he would be starting for the Rockets or be dealt to another team.

    You can try to rationalize and twist to make something true, but ultimately it makes those that do it look foolish.
     
  11. Doppleganger

    Doppleganger Rookie

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    This is the only team in the league where Bev can be a starter, and the analysis given supports that notion. Beverley's ability is only viewed in the context of the people he plays with (i.e., Harden & the starting lineup). Is Bev better than Lin individually? Absolutely not.
     
  12. Clarinetmonster

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    Really?? What's your definition of a solid starter? Especially in their first year as a starter?
     
  13. Houston79Astro

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    Ding ding ding. We have a winner. Simple
     
  14. Pukimonster

    Pukimonster Member

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    He could probably start for the Heat only because all they need a 3 and D guy at the 1

    That's assuming he really is a 3 and D guy
     
  15. Clarinetmonster

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    Bev averages the most minutes of the PG's yet has the lowest PIE. Essentially that means his impact on the game is less than Lin and Brooks when he's in there - in fact it's lower than Covington.

    What is PIE?
    It is a simple metric that gives an excellent indication of performance at both the team and player level. It’s a major improvement to our EFF Rating. Notably 2 things changed: (1) We included Personal Fouls, (2) We added a denominator. We feel the key here is the denominator because it acts as an "automatic equalizer". Using the denominator, we find there is no need to consider the "PACE" of the statistics that are being analyzed. In its simplest terms, PIE shows what % of game events did that player or team achieve. The stats being analyzed are your traditional basketball statistics (PTS, REB, AST, TOV, etc..) A team that achieves more than 50% is likely to be a winning team. A player that achieves more than 10% is likely to be better than the average player. A high PIE % is highly correlated to winning. In fact, a team’s PIE rating and a team’s winning percentage correlate at an R square of .908 which indicates a "strong" correlation. We’ve introduced this statistic because we feel it incorporates a bit of defense into the equation. When a team misses a shot, all 5 players on the other team’s PIE rating goes up. The formula for PIE can be found here in the Glossary.
     
  16. Clarinetmonster

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    Bev's PIE = 6.7
     
  17. wompwomp

    wompwomp Member

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    yea, my boy is a huge laker fan and the biggest homer for laker players(he used to tell me mark madsen was good, hah) and even he was like i wish nash would retire. And anytime i have watched nash before he was injured, i was amazed how slow he was, especially since he wasn't exactly quick to begin with.
     
  18. Pukimonster

    Pukimonster Member

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    lol... all Mark Madsen was good for was cheerleading, he's the original Laker girl

    And Nash is done... sad but true... most Laker fans are waiting for that medical retirement buyout to clear some cap space
     
  19. RRockets

    RRockets Member

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    He did it already. He started for the Knicks the year before last year, he started for the Rockets last year. I cannot predict the future, so let's see what will happen. Is that fair enough?
     
  20. wompwomp

    wompwomp Member

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    i dont think he is trying to be fair.
     

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