[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

I hear what your saying, and I do think Bev has the intangibles and mindset that I wish Lin coud have/develop - Psychologist anyone? But I wouldn't downplay Lin's accomplishments in NY like that - garbage time it was not and he set some records that will be on the books for a long time. This is not a scrub we're talking about - he'sa gifted basketball player who seems to have some mental hurdles he needs to overcome.

 

Bad article and xxxx xxx.

 

Bev's drating is 1 better, but drtg and dws on basketball reference are useless as stats, the only one that seems in any way useful is synergy's ppp stats

 

I agree that the conclusion Beverley is better than Lin as a starter is what these data implies. But when talking statistics, in general, a mean estimate without std error is quite meaningless.

Assuming Poisson distribution for TO's per 48, team mean is 15.4, then standard error of TO for 245mins (245/48 games) using team mean estimate is 1.737. So does the data imply Bev(14.2) is better than Lin(15.8) in TO, very likely! Is it definitely true? Maybe not, they are less than one std error away from eachother.

I am still with Clutch on Bev is a better at starting with this squad than Lin though, just not as "Clearly" from stat.

 

I didn't read through the whole tread. Can someone pull up how last season's starting lineup Lin, Harden, Parsons, Patterson, Asik compares to this season's Bev, Harden, Parsons, Jones, Howard.

It's not exactly comparing apple to apple. But it'd be interesting to see the difference. This year's team is supposed to be much improved. But exactly how much?

 

I think this may be one of the best posts I've ever read on any internet forum. You win.

 

As is JR Smith.

As was Eddie Robinson.

As are many NBDL players.

Mental hurdles are a part of basketball and high pressure careers, but rarely do passive players develop a killer mentality. It's fine to root for him as a person and player but nothing wrong with a fan seeing a situation in an objective manner. championships are the goal.

 

It's funny, this year's team has a slightly higher +/- and worse free throw shooting - but I'm seeing that +/- is maybe a bit misleading - the starting lineup for Min has a higher +/- than ours this year.

 

HAHA! The starting 5 last year had less turnovers than this year's.

 

This ^^^ is sort of off topic, but I really hope some of Lin's more extreme fans (as you put it) really digest this and take heed to it. A lot of people complain that he is ostracized by his teammates and the organization overall, not included in the fold, that friendships have weakened, etc. -- but what you just wrote is extremely poignant, I think.

Search Harden's twitter mentions most days. Beverley's. Parson's. Morey's. Even Feigen's and Friedman's. They're full of the extreme Lin fans' vitriol, accusing them of being selfish/afraid of being shown up by Lin (Harden), a useless scrub who has taken what was rightfully Lin's (Beverley), a traitor who latched onto Lin for fame but has now turned his back on him to be one of the cool kids (Parsons), a huge cog in a wildly racist and twisted organization that must be taken down (Morey), and racist perpetuators of the Rockets' sinister agenda through the written word (Feigan/Friedman). I've seen comments on both Harden and Bev's instagrams from Lin fans who call them the n-word and say flat-out vile things about them and even their families. The official @HoustonRockets twitter account gets it too.

I think these people really think they are doing Lin a favor -- that they are standing in his stead and speaking up for him because they believe he is too kind, and too passive. It really does him no favors. I try not to overanalyze body language and what could be meaningless interactions, but there is a sort of noticeable shift this season... and I would be shocked if the crazy fan behavior has not played a part. By all accounts, Lin is a very nice guy and a good teammate -- never heard anything otherwise. But I think it'd be next to impossible to compartmentalize the personal insults, constant accusations of racism, conspiracy theories, and intermittent racial epithets and not have those relationships change in some way. Even the Rockets' reporters have become increasingly snippy with extreme Lin fans as of late, presumably, because they are fed up with being accused of being racist any time they publish anything remotely critical of Lin or positive about Beverley.

None of this is Lin's fault, and I think he is in a really tough position. It's great to have the unconditional support of so many fans, but a very hard place to be when you cannot check the sort of extreme behavior that serves to do nothing but fracture the relationships and bonds you've built with your teammates. The fans who spew the hatefulness and baseless accusations ultimately get to log off and avoid dealing with the consequences of their words. Lin is not so fortunate.

TL;DR -- Some of his more ardent fans wind up doing him a disservice, rather than mounting an effective defense.

 

Young players need some support to develop. Doubting and hesitation is normal in young people's career. They just need to get over with it. With support, help, and some encouragement, it might be faster. Without it, some can still get there by themselves.

No need to go extreme comparing Lin to the nutcase JR in the mental department, although they both played for Woodson once. Woodson was loud and clear that Lin needs to improve and further develop his game. But he also gave him support, as stated in one of the post games, "I trust my PG and put the ball in his hands in the 4th quarter. He delivered."

 

Wow, are you serious with the comments? i don't have a twitter account but do have experience dealing with the insecurity of that demographic. terrible.

 

Lin is a better player BUT we need to do the following:

Change the couch
Fire the GM
Trade all players
Change the Toyota center to something else
Ask opponent to take it easy on him
Not to count turn over ever
If he jump in the air to no where , it some else fault not to come for the rescue
If he does not improve, then make an appointment with Royce white therapist
Never give up on Limsinty, its like M.Jackson's moon walk, forever thrilling

 

Real_egal's post deserves its own thread way more than Clutch's. instead of sugar-coating w numbers, it actually touch the REAL reason that BEV should be starting, which is chemistry/fit and the mindset of coaches. I would be thrilled to see Harden/Lin play off each other, remember the first few games last season? but its never gonna happen. Harden ball simply does not fare well w Lin, particularly since Lin is TO happy and Harden only plays D in 10% of the games.
The real problem with this group though, is no matter who (BEV or Lin) starts, the personnel, from coach to players, are not enough to go deep into the postseason, and it would take a miracle to go all the way.
If only Lin could play w more determination. If only coach could keep Harden honest and give Lin a little bit more patience. If only Harden plays D like Paul George. If only Mchale actually is able to make proper adjustments in games. This group could be so much better w whoever handling ghe starting job. And it is a pity consider the talents of all these guys, and Lin/Asik would be leaving sooner or later. I see another episode of what could have been just like the Yao/TMac era.

 

Very well said. This is exactly why I have defected from a Jeremy Lin fansite and joined CF. I can't stand the racist crap that a couple (not all) of the posters have spewed. I tried to clean things up over there and bring it to a rational, fact based conversation (as it is here most of the time) to no avail.

 

I agree. But sigh, it's the Internet, and you can't stop them. It's like a man/woman gets married and moved into a new family. Bunch of strangers related or not related (but felt entitled to be associated with) that person showed up at the family. Then started to throw around all kinds of insults, how everyone is useless and and how they would never lay eyesight on them if it weren't for the person they are related to. No matter how much that family loves the person, the relationship is just damaged.

I never consider those extremists Lin fans but rather fans of themselves, because they never consider Lin's position but rather their own agenda.

 

Rofl, typical LOF response. this team is far deeper and tougher than yao-tmac era, not even close. although competition has risen they have tools to compete with the best. mchale sucking is another story.

 

I have a question. I assume you watched last season. If so, you'd know that Beverley wasn't even on the team for the first half of the season. So what does Lin starting 82 games last year have to do with who starts this year? But quite frankly, if you want to use last year's numbers, it only serves to further why the Rockets wanted to start Beverley in the offseason.

2012-2013 Points-Per-Possession stats

4-man lineup of Harden, Lin, Parsons, and Asik(No Bev), ignoring the PF position due to all the turmoil there

Offense: 1.077
Defense: 1.045
Diff: +0.032

4-man lineup of Harden, Beverley, Parsons, and Asik(no Lin), ignoring the PF position due to all the turmoil there

Note: limited sample size of course due to Beverley coming over late in the season.

Offense: 1.157
Defense: 1.015
Diff: +0.142

So yes, even last year the stats showed that Beverley fits with the starters better. One that surely the Rockets themselves noticed, and likely played a huge part in both their radical change to starting lineup in the OKC series(Beverley/Lin/Harden) and their offseason decision in starting Beverley.

It's fine to wonder whether Clutch's numbers are fair or not. But regardless of his methodology, his conclusion is the exact same conclusion that the Rockets front office have determined. This may be incorrect, and I'm not saying Morey's infallible, but I don't think you can say he's trying to use numbers to further an agenda.

There are 5 basketball players on the court for a team at any given moment. Clutch's stats involve 5-man lineups. So no, I disagree with your notion that it's about Harden. But rather, it's about the Rockets main lineup of players. Of which Harden is one of them.

Your effort to "simplify" things only serve to complicate it. Instead of picking just Harden, look at Harden, Howard, Jones, Parsons and Lin or Beverley. Because the game of basketball is played with 5 players, not 2.

 

To put it bluntly, I like Lin and firmly believe he is capable of starting. I also believe as an individual player, he is superior to Bev. If we did not have Harden, Lin would definitely be playing ahead of Bev. That said, we do have Harden (thank god for that) hence Bev being a better fit.

Honestly, I feel like Lin can become a great 6th man for the Rockets provided he figures things out. Whether or not he will stay long enough to is a different story though. As much as I dislike the vast majority of his fans, I want Lin to stay on the Rockets because I prioritize my beloved Rockets winning much higher than wanting to get rid of Lin's fan base.

 

Ok by definition roxfan123 is not a LOF because he is a 2006er.

But don't let that stop you. Carry on.