I really think that a competent coach would really maximize harden and lin's talent as the best backcourt in the nba. too bad
Thank you Calcium for the article. The article's numbers on how Lin is ranking in the league should be best reviewed with TTNN's charts, especially about Lin's assist efficiency. The article commented that "He's 58th in the league in assist opportunities a game, 48th in team points from his assists, and 76th in team points from assists per 48 min." Since these numbers are per game numbers, and in view of Lin's efficiency standing in the top 7% of the league, they are just reflecting the fact that Lin has not been getting enough assist opportunities to bring them up, either by having more plays coming through him, or just give him more play time every game. Lin can never be considered the kind of elite PG he can be on this team, even when he's already got all the efficiency numbers as listed in both this thread and the DreamShake article as supporting evidence, if he is not given enough opportunities on both ends of the court, or just getting onto the court at all.
I think the main cause is just as you pointed out here. Harden has been insisting that he should be the PG, rather than letting Lin play as a real PG.
First of all. I want to say thank you to the OP "TTNN" for presenting the stats and creating one of the more interesting threads of this year. Also a small mention to others that have chipped in with stats too. I would like to summarise and analyse the stats in regard to the 2nd of the two big line-up experiments this year; that being the "Better Fit" experiment. The 1st experiment was the "Twin Towers". I believe the "Better Fit" experiment is doomed to fail and the stats bear this out: Quick Summary of Key Players in Better Fit Experiment Beverley - Is a very poor play maker (assist efficiency) - Defense has been disappointing with a Drtg of 108 and Lin equal or playing better D (statistically) this season so far. - 3P% is a mediocre 33% (worse than Lin last year) - TO is a very good 1.2 per game which is better than Lin's 2.8. Harden - Below NBA league average play maker this season (assist efficiency) - Has continued to show lack of defensive effort. Drtg 109 (doesn't tell the whole story as opponents keep going off on him). - 3P% is 32% (regressed significantly from last year). - Leading the team in TO again with 3.9 per game, just ahead of Dwight with 3.3 Lin - Best play maker on the team and ranked 12th in the NBA league (assist efficiency) - Best amongst PGs for opponent FG% (+ wins his match-ups), about the same as Beverley and Harden on Drtg 109 - 3P% is 37% (equal with Parsons for 2nd best on team) - Has reduced his TO to 2.8 per game behind Dwight and Harden Analysis The "better fit" experiment of starting Beverley over Lin has proven statistically to be a failure. In key categories of defense and 3P%, Lin has shown to be equal or superior to Beverley. Only Beverley leads in less TO but this could be due to his passivity on offense, besides Lin has made great strides in this area bringing his TOs down to 2.8 per game. Harden is the other key player to be considered in this experiment because the "better fit" argument put forth by McHale is mainly concerned with the perceived overlap in skills of he and Lin. Harden is a below league average play maker this season and couple with Beverley's lack of play making abilities (and Parson's averageness) puts the 1st unit in dire need of a playmaker. Harden's extremely high TOs per game are a continuation of last year and a worrying sign. This could be because of teams not having to guard Beverley on the perimeter and increasing defensive pressure on Harden. Also Harden's poor ballhandling, decision making and passing abilities contribute to his high TO rate. Lin defensively has made strides in holding opponent PGs to poor shooting % but his Drtg is the same as Beverley and Harden. So defensively speaking, the comparison between the 3 is a wash or a slight edge to Lin. As by far the best play maker on the team, he could really make up for Harden's regression in this area (especially for the 1st unit). He is equal 2nd as the best 3point shooter on the team and can also help the starting 5 and finishing 5 in this way. Lin's improvement in his TOs are making this a non-issue with him. The team should be far more worried about Harden and Howard's high TO rate. Morey has also said that Lin is the best (and one of the only players) at giving Howard good feeds in the post. He is essential then if we are to continue with the strategy of feeding Howard in the post. Overall, I believe Morey is aware of these statistics and what they mean in regards to the "best fit" experiment. Something has got to give because the current system and the way the players are playing this year does not work. I'm not sure McHale is aware of the stats as he is continually making bad coaching decisions as far as line-ups and rotations. I speculate that Morey has made McHale aware of the situation but McHale is stubborn. McHale is trying to change the play of Harden and team and insisting on continuing with the "best fit" experiment. Time will tell if he will succeed or fail. I think his job depends on it.
It is tough to draw conclusions until we see advanced stats for defense. Lin fans are excited because the OP is posting stats that show Lin's strengths, but we haven't seen stats that address McHale's criticisms. It could be that Lin should have a larger role in the offense or it could be that the coaches have found the perfect complementary role for him by limiting his opportunities for "wild play". I think the team is better off with Lin providing offense, despite the fact that both Lin and Harden dribble the ball too much, and the problems with having he and Harden are the court together are products of the Rockets' system and defensive woes. We can check the team here: http://stats.nba.com/teamPlayers.html?TeamID=1610612745&MeasureType=Advanced&PerMode=PerGame The NBA tracks Defensive Rating as the number of points per 100 possessions a team allows when a player is on the court. This, in theory, controls for rotating on D and for when a team mate picks up one player's matchup, which is what the Rockets do with all the switching. I have posted this in another thread, but here are the Offensive, Defensive, and Net ratings for the Rockets sorted by defensive rating: Code: [b]Player Games Min OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg[/b] Omer Asik 17 18.3 101.9 [B]96.9[/B] 5.0 Patrick Beverley 25 31.5 107.4 [B]99.7[/B] 7.7 Omri Casspi 34 20.6 107.3 [B]99.8[/B] 7.5 Isaiah Canaan 2 3.9 51.5 [B]100.0[/B] -48.5 Francisco Garcia 34 20.8 105.6 [B]101.3[/B] 4.3 James Harden 29 38.7 109.5 [B]102.0[/B] 7.5 Dwight Howard 35 33.9 107.8 [B]102.8[/B] 5.0 Donatas Motiejunas 17 8.4 97.9 [B]103.5[/B] -5.7 Chandler Parsons 33 37.9 109.9 [B]103.9[/B] 6.0 Jeremy Lin 25 29.9 107.7 [B]104.8[/B] 2.9 Aaron Brooks 30 17.3 105.1 [B]105.5[/B] -0.5 Terrence Jones 32 26.1 109.7 [B]105.9[/B] 3.8 Greg Smith 9 8.5 108.6 [B]106.5[/B] 2.0 Ronnie Brewer 16 4.9 95.5 [B]124.1[/B] -28.6 The league average Defensive Rating is 102.7. If we look at this rating combined with the net rating, McHales looks to be correct. It could be the case that Lin is generally in a poor defensive line up. So here are advanced stats for lineups that have seen at least 30 minutes of action: Code: Lineups A. Brooks,Aaron - Casspi,Omri - Garcia,Francisco - Howard,Dwight - Parsons,Chandler B. Casspi,Omri - Harden,James - Howard,Dwight - Lin,Jeremy - Parsons,Chandler [COLOR="Olive"]C. Beverley,Patrick - Harden,James - Howard,Dwight - Jones,Terrence - Parsons,Chandler D. Harden,James - Howard,Dwight - Jones,Terrence - Lin,Jeremy - Parsons,Chandler[/COLOR] E. Beverley,Patrick - Howard,Dwight - Jones,Terrence - Lin,Jeremy - Parsons,Chandler F. Beverley,Patrick - Garcia,Francisco - Harden,James - Howard,Dwight - Parsons,Chandler G. Asik,Omer - Harden,James - Howard,Dwight - Lin,Jeremy - Parsons,Chandler H. Beverley,Patrick - Garcia,Francisco - Harden,James - Howard,Dwight - Jones,Terrence I. Asik,Omer - Beverley,Patrick - Harden,James - Howard,Dwight - Parsons,Chandler Lineup Games Min OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg AST% AST/TO ASTR. OREB% DREB% REB% TOR eFG% TS% PACE PIE A. 8 33 122.5 95.2 27.3 62.5% 2.00 22.0 36.4% 84.8% 65.5% 15.9 62.5% 63.3% 93.53 68.2% B. 16 84 108.5 91.3 17.3 56.7% 1.00 15.2 35.1% 82.5% 59.2% 20.5 53.6% 57.7% 105.27 65.3% [COLOR="olive"][b]C. 14 245 112.9 100.2 12.7 54.6% 1.56 17.0 25.4% 76.2% 53.3% 14.6 56.0% 59.0% 97.25 57.0%[/b] [b]D. 13 167 110.0 109.0 1.0 53.1% 1.13 15.4 25.0% 72.8% 51.8% 17.7 55.7% 59.6% 98.68 51.6%[/b][/COLOR] E. 5 71 106.6 107.4 -0.8 67.9% 1.52 19.5 31.0% 68.7% 51.2% 18.0 53.8% 56.1% 94.72 48.9% F. 7 36 96.5 97.9 -1.4 33.3% 0.42 8.4 36.4% 79.3% 56.5% 25.1 46.4% 53.2% 101.37 44.9% G. 7 57 88.3 99.9 -11.6 45.5% 0.50 10.8 34.1% 69.2% 55.7% 27.3 44.2% 51.7% 93.86 44.8% H. 4 32 88.6 112.7 -24.2 52.2% 1.00 13.1 38.9% 78.6% 56.3% 18.3 39.2% 43.0% 98.13 37.6% I. 4 32 82.6 109.0 -26.5 50.0% 1.10 14.3 13.8% 66.7% 40.7% 16.2 45.4% 45.7% 93.59 33.2% ASTR = AST Ratio TOR = Turnover Ratio http://stats.nba.com/teamLineups.ht...ld=NET_RATING&sortOrder=DES&filters=MIN*GE*30 To no surprise the top defensive lineups feature Howard. The two most used lineups, and the ones probably most useful for testing McHale's assertions about Lin and defense, are lineups C and D. These 2 lineups feature the same players at the 2-5 spots, but with Lin and Beverley at the 1. Regarding offensive numbers: it would be nice to also see the hockey assist numbers. I have heard it argued that a lot of playmakers and post players really excel at initiating the action, and this is often seen in the pass that leads to the assist.
Harden doesn't insist anything. It is, I think, lazy coaching to just have the better player dominate the ball. It isn't much different from what Mike Brown does. Harden is a better player than Lin, hands down, no two ways about it. But they played extremely well together post-Harden trade and before McHale had practice time. The reality is that Lin is also a ball dominating guard. He will dribble in circles and pound the rock to no effect, just like a lot of ball dominating guards. But he is a good teammate and willing passer, just like Harden. I don't believe there is a Harden vs. Lin soap opera going on as some folks believe. This is just coaching that isn't finding a way to blend both players while maintaining a defensive scheme that covers for both players defensive weaknesses.
Yeah, the team needs more assists and less ISO play and that's what McHale simply hasn't gotten them to do. If they could figure out the combo of plays and player off-the-ball movement, then Lin's playmaking skills will be put to use and Harden will continue to use his as well. McHale puts too little importance on integrating Lin's playmaking skills into the offense. He also should have put a huge priority of developing Harden, Lin, Parsons, Dwight chemistry but deciding Beverley has to be with the starting unit really disallowed that. There's still time to work on that but he won't put Lin back in the starting line-up. He can't wait to get his low TO PG back in the lineup.
I know you guys are talking about starting lineup, but the Nrtg for the next most used lineup (line B) is also pretty impressive. If anything, this shows that we need to play Casspi more.
I was actually surprised to see how effective Casspi is. When I see him, I tend to see bone headed drives to the basket, but he does his job overall. Since looking at the star, when I watch him play I notice how he tends to be in the right place on the court, he boxes out and rebounds. He doesn't miss his rotations often. Harden and Lin, respectively, tend to ball watch and wander the court leaving their guys far too unguarded. These ratings are more about team play. Yeah, they are effected by the usual issues of sample size, schedule, and opponent. But the sample for some lineups is large enough to even out, so to speak. What matters is that the NBA is doing a much better job providing a variety of stats that we can use to test assumptions, so long as we don't cherry pick data or only see fit to interpret it to fit a pre-defined narrative.
Defensive Impact Defensive Impact: Statistics measuring the impact a player has on defense, including blocks, steals and protecting the rim, which measures the opponent's field goal percentage at the rim while it is being defended. Rim protection is defined as the defender being within five feet of the basket and within five feet of the offensive player attempting the shot. I was a bit disappointed that the player tracking system did not introduce too much new defensive info, I guess there is just not that many new defensive parameters to be used. Anyway, blocks and steals are pretty standard defensive impact stats to look at. Agree with eye test, Dwight and TJ are elite shot blockers in the league, and in the team. However, as guards, James Harden and Jeremy Lin actually perform at the league average level is pretty impressive. Beverley somehow dropped his intensity here, that his block/game is less than Jeremy this season, well, I'm pretty sure playing much longer time would be hard with his playing style. And Asik......, well, he don't really jump too much, and I'm okay with AB, LOL. Oh, Garcia is pretty good at blocking, so when his 3 does not go in, he still do something else..... Steal is the strength of P.Beverley. Surprised to see that Harden is as good as PB though. Jeremy and Parsons are not bad either. Opponent's field goal percentage is the new thing that tract directly with player's defensive involvements in rim protection. However, as all other defensive parameters other than steals and blocks, one do need to put team concept in the background though. However, within the same team, the difference still mean something. Well, the whole team performed above league average, which on one hand, does benefit with playing with Dwight and Asik, on the other hand, I think also has something to do with the team's playing style, that is the team is tend to pack the paint. Asik is the best rim protector in this team, no argument. Oh I wish Asik could change his mind and stay. Jeremy is really impressive here, stand next by Asik as the second best in the team, and sit in between Dwight and Asik. And check the table below, it is not small sample size, he defended 3.6 FGA at rim, it is obvious smaller than most centers, but in guards, that is in the high end, and compare to P.Beverley, Jeremy win this one easily with a large margin. Casspi, uh, agree with eye test, he had advantage when playing at 4 in the offensive end, but does have a bit disadvantage in the defensive end. Hard task for him though.
This is why I said "IF they are used properly." Lin doesn't kick out to Harden because he stays out at the top of the arc most of the time. It's hard to kick out to the top when you drive. The angle is much better to pass it to the wing. Imagine, Lin drives; Harden goes to the weak side; the defense collapses on Lin; Lin passes to Harden; Harden either shoots an open 3 or if the defense scrambles to rotate, drives into the lane and does his thing there. It would make Harden much more difficult to contain.
How is the opponent determined? Is it by position? Does it include defensive switches, which is a problem area for the Rockets? How does this compare to the defensive ratings (which presume to capture defense in the team context) posted earlier?
Just for fun, I highlighted some of the guards in the Opp FGP and they are everywhere, LOL. Jeremy is obviously stands out here. And, hmmm, Klay Thompson? I guess there is a reason GSW do not want to trade him even for James Harden.
Rim protection is defined as the defender being within five feet of the basket and within five feet of the offensive player attempting the shot. So it is from the video, and they don't care whether there is switch or who is who's guy. Something like transition defense, help defense, as long as you are close by the attempts, it will be counted.
With all the statistics, many things correlates with the eye test and how players are playing. But like many have notice, the Lin's statistics is very surprising. Props to Mchale for the hard love and props to Lin's self-growth. Like Parson and Jones, they really took their 1st to 2nd year growth in stride. Individual offcourt good things are at work. On court not so much. Mchale himself needs absorb the experience much quicker. Next year is the year.
Sincerest thanks for TTNN and Jabberwock for these fantastic and fascinating stats. Like a clean air for breathing compared to the regular promoting the favorite player mainly by blasting some other player on the roster. It is also important to realize that the coaching staff get these stats on a daily basis and they know which players contribute and how. These is no better way to evaluate true player performance than real stats. Any other criteria is subjective and deceiving. In the NBA you don't get points for style. If you elevate one foot higher for dunk than your fellow player, people react more and they remember that better. In essence you still get the same 2 points that you get from a floater. It's really interesting to go through these stats. Thanks again TTNN and Jabberwock.
