Three teams had a positive FG differential and did not make the playoffs—Houston (+.07), Atlanta (+.09) and Chicago (+.06). Not surprising these teams have some of the worst TO differentials in the league at Houston (-1.9), Atlanta (-2.5) and Chicago (-2.0). Surprising to me, 5 of the eastern playoff teams (including the Eastern #1 seed) have negative FG differentials—though all of them had positive to extremely positive TO differentials. One real interesting case is Phily, -.04 shooting, but a huge positive +2.5 advantage in TO. Also, we have a better shooting differential than one WC playoff team (Phx)—though they of course have a much better TO differential than us. You can’t say this is just do to youth with the trend of the 3 teams I mentioned to start the thread either—as certainly the Rockets and Atlanta (and even Chi with Rose & Marshall) have some key vets. Thus those of you thinking the acquisition of a offensive-oriented player from Atl and Chicago may want to rethink are they really going to help us in one of our key problem areas based on how their team performed. Of course Crawford is very green so I would reserve a little on judging him long term (see below)—but to think he would just walk in and smoothly run the show immediately is pretty unrealistic. The trends of these team also just gets me thinking our lack of offensive discipline keeps us from a lot of wins we ordinarily would expect to get. I happen to think missing a stabilzing/organizing offensive leader along with a defensive stalwart in the post (but this issue is for another thread) are our two main weaknesses. It also does make me think we need a new PG or a new SG who can act like a steadying PG a lot of the time. (Either this or a new coaching would seem to be in order if that is where the discipline problem is--right now I'd lean towards the backcourt players, thus focus on suggesting a new starting guard to help the mix) For any acquisition we are thinking who is going to handle the ball a lot total Tos and A/TO should probably be pretty big factors to consider. FA guys who look good on these #’s include the obvious one’s like GP, Stockton, Kidd, & Dre. Other 1s who stand out on this criteria (not saying all of are of interest or are realistic for other reasons) include J & A. Williams, Tinsley & Snow; 1s who look good in this criteria but less impressively so include--Cassell, Crawford (2.49 A/TO, not exceptinal, but much better than both Francis—1.68 and Cat 1.25), Marbury, Hudsen, Best, Terry, and Bibby. Some 2s really stand out also--Barry (Brent and Jon both), McKie, DA, Christie, and Ricky Davis. Makes me think if we could move Cat for A. Williams (3 way probably) and sign Jon Barry via FA we would immediately address a whole lot of our problems. Putting Crawford next to Francis is intriguing too—but you have to be ready to expect growing pains.
Alvin Williams is the guy. Jon Berry would be very nice, too. Those are workable deals. Williams/Francis Francis/Berry Good rotation. Defense, scoring, take care of the ball. ------------------------- Then we need a thug 4 and a rebounding, distributing 3 - all set!
Desert Scar - I was working on a parallel path over the past day. Here is how the 2002-2003 NBA's bottom 1/3 performed in A/TO ratio. 20 - Toronto >>> 1.34 ....(4) 21 - Golden State >>> 1.32 ...(9) 22 - Miami >>> 1.29 ...(26) 23 - Chicago >>> 1.28 ...(14) 24 - San Antonio >>> 1.26 ...(17) 25 - L.A. Clippers >>> 1.24 ...(16) 26 - Atlanta >>> 1.23 ...(11) 27 - Houston >>> 1.18 ...(19) 28 - Denver >>> 1.15 ...(21) 29 - Cleveland >>> 1.14 ...(7) The number in parentheses is where that team ranked in FB Points (my logic being that a team on the move is going to make more mistakes). Now here is something that I found interesting and possibly related. Here is the defensive A/TO ratio for the bottom 1/3. By "defensive" A/TO, I mean the opponents assists compared to the TO's your defense forced. This is inverse to the offensive ratio...IOW a lower A/TO for defensive is better. 20 - Washington >>> 1.52 21 - Toronto >>> 1.54 22 - Houston >>> 1.56 23 - L.A. Clippers >>> 1.60 24 - Milwaukee >>> 1.60 25 - Chicago >>> 1.61 26 - Memphis >>> 1.64 27 - Atlanta >>> 1.66 28 - Minnesota >>> 1.68 29 - Cleveland >>> 1.70 OK, I'm not sure exactly sure where I was headed with all of this except to say that I would look very closely at the individual numbers (assists, TO's, FB points or ability to run, defensive abilities like steals) for any player aquired from a team on these lists. Hey, even "Jesus" Parker is to some extent responsible for SA's 24 in A/TO...
I am pretty sure Atlanta is going to be blown up. David McDavid (the Texas car guy) just bought the Hawks and promises to be a "very active" owner. I think he is going to go nutty...he learned from the master, Mark Cuban, as a minority owner for the Mavs.
Yeah, I did the statistical run on fg% vs. opp fg% differentials in a previous thread. And you're on to something with turnovers. Basically, you need more than a positiove differential. You also need more shots. That can come in a variety of ways, one of which includes minimizing your turnovers.
I hope so, I would be interested in taking Ratliff off their hands for Cato plus a little more (Ratliff would provide that excellent 4/5 defensive guy--perhaps addressing our other most major shortcumming). I would not be interested in their 3 main offensive guys however. In addition to Atl's horrid team A/TO numbers that Gater shows is also common to us--SAR and the Big Dog are not surprisingly pretty bad in A/TO and Terry is OK in this regard but he is still an undersized combo guard who can't guard many players--not he kind of guy to pair with Francis for defensive purposes.
How about Cato, Griff, Rice, & Cat for Ratliff, SAR, and resigning Posey Yao/ 3 man rot. w/ Ratt. and Taylor (or resign Collier) Ratliff/ Taylor SAR/ Bokki Posey/ Free agent Francis/ Norris Offense from Yoa, Francis, and SAR, but not alot of great 3 point shotting D from or size and shot blocking big men and strong paremiter D from Posey
of course one reason for our poor TO differential is that we play a non-aggressive D which means few turnovers. however, it did lead us to the 5th best opp fg% numbers and i wanna say we gave up the fewest ft's in the league this year (we were definitely lowest at one point). so i don't know what to say about a poor TO differential that is mostly the result of not forcing them, but which is a factor in our great opp fg% and low opp fta's. offense is where we were screwed. we either have to move more, fast break more, or get better shooters at the 3 and 4. or hell, do all 3.
IMO yours is a deal Atl would jump on. I would want something more from them since you are really talking about 3.5 assets for 2 (Cat is an asset, EG is an asset, Rice's contract is an asset and Cato 1/2 an asset) such as a future 1st round pick from Atl--or make them take Mooch instead of Cat if the dollars still work. Another alternative is take out Mobley & EG add in Boki, & replace SAR with the Big Dog. Houston trades: Bostjan Nachbar, Kelvin Cato & Glen Rice Houston receives: Theo Ratliff & Glenn Robinson Then you have--- Yao/Ratt/Taylor Ratliff/EG/Taylor Big Dog/Posey Cat/ Posey Francis/ Norris if you still want to change the line-up further you can then work a trade with Mobley (or Mobley+ in some cases) for a new relatively big or physical PG (e.g., Wiliams/Crawford/Dre/Snow/Tinsley/GP) and move Francis to the 2 and back-up 1.
Good point, our TO differential is due to 1/3 part our offense (about -.5 relative to league average), and 2/3 part of our defense (-1.0). However, I wouldn't say our FG D is "great". It is very good by rank (5th)--but it really merely "good" as it (.433) is closer to the league average (around .438) than the .420 level that have marked the elite defensive teams the last couple of years. Finally, the low TOs forced and few fouls committed makes me think we just overall have a non-aggressive defense. I would hazard to guess our defense worked pretty well against bad teams and not so good against good ones--probably a bigger spread than most teams. And given we rightly use our guards to rebound a lot (we have good rebouding %) and don't force opponents into TOs--we also are not getting a lot of easy baskets on the offensive end in transition.
Okay. Gary Payton. Jason Kidd. Andre Miller. Jason Williams. Jamaal Tinsley. Eric Snow. Either one of these 6 would be great. But not Alvin Williams....I still don't like him. "Marbury, Hudsen, Best, Terry, and Bibby" None of these. I hate them. Rivals of Houston..... But Brent Barry would be awesome. Really. I would trade Mobley for him straight up.......or maybe we can get a 2nd Rounder too...heh. Jon Barry would be a nice bench player too. What would be great would be Cuttino Mobley for Brent Barry. Then...oh yeah lol....then we would have two brothers if we signed Jon Barry... Steve Francis Brent Barry James Posey Eddie Griffin Yao Ming Of course....I still would love having Elton Brand and Quentin Richardson instead. Gary Payton would be nice. Cassell............well he's good...good shooter....but really doesn't create...needs a system to play. He shoots too much. Doesn't pass that often. Tinsley could become a good player.
I don't know how we could get Brand but I think we should do anything we can to get them. Mobley+Griffin+Posey for Elton Brand. Cato for Danny Fortson. Then Rice(or Griffin if we can work something else with Brand)+Morris+Picks\filler for Shareef Abdur-Rahim. New team. PG-Norris(ugh..needs some work sign anybody) SG-Francis SF-Abdur-Rahim PF-Brand C-Yao 6. Fortson(backup C and PF) 7. Mo Taylor(try to trade him for PG maybe) 8. Nachbar 9. Juaquin Hawkins
