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Rockets Players' Advanced Statistics: You'll be surprised...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by The Jabberwock, Dec 21, 2013.

  1. bballjunkie281

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    I was actually at the game (I live close to Detroit), and I thought Casspi played very well, especially in making the right passes (hence his 7 assists tonight, career high if I'm not mistaken). What was he getting hate for?
     
  2. kingdragon22

    kingdragon22 Member

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    I don't understand.

    Read the game thread, it amazing that when he has stats like this, some of the users wants him out of the team, and posting how useless he is!!!

    I think that they are expecting Kevin love to replace home for the minimum.
    we won the game
    casspi played great, just like you saw.
    that's what really matters.:)
     
  3. CertifiedTroll

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    Could Casspi's defensive rating be inflated because he is not guarding the opposing teams good players?
     
  4. kuku

    kuku Member

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    It's not really hating on Casspi. I think he is a great addition to the team at the price we are getting. He outplays his min contract value.

    It's his only fans who post data, which they don't fully understand, and prop him out to be a player he is NOT.

    Can you imagine on a Heat forum, Norris Cole only fans making a thread and post ratings by saying people often mistakenly labeled Cole as a bad defender when in fact his DefRtg is one of the best on his team??
     
  5. bballjunkie281

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    Maybe. There are too many factors that go into this to be able to know exactly what it means. But one thing that these stats show is that for whatever reason, lineups that include Casspi in them are better defensively than other lineups.

    As to Casspi's actual role in making these lineups good defensively, the one thing I can say about him as far as my own eye test goes, he seems to make pretty good off-ball decisions on both offense and defense. He makes good cuts towards the basket and sets off-ball screens to allow other players to cut. On the defensive end, he does have his lapses, but overall he seems to have good awareness of where he should be rotating to (and when you make the rotation quickly, it's easier for your teammate to follow suit).

    Obviously, he is not a lockdown on-ball defender, and those who try to paint it as though the OP was arguing that Casspi is the best defender on the team are really using a strawman argument. The way I understood it, the OP was just making the case that if the most effective defensive lineups include Casspi, then he must be doing something right.
     
  6. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    Im a tj fan and all but he is like the 4th option for a reason.
     
  7. bballjunkie281

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    It's natural for fans of a player to try to find the positives in his game. If you go on forums like realgm you will see arguments from Detroit fans that Jennings is the second coming, almost weekly debates over Rondo with both sides bringing raw stats to the table to show that he is either the worst PG in the league or the second coming of Magic Johnson (I am from the latter camp, tbh), and there is the one guy that keeps trying to convince everyone that Tyreke Evans is the next LeBron. Fans are biased by their very nature.

    As a COF myself (I root for every Rocket whether or not Casspi is on the court, but I never tried to conceal the fact that I am here because of Casspi), I may be biased, but I think the COF population on this forum is very mild compared to other player-fans. We think he is happy with his current role on this team, and therefore we are happy with it as well. As I mentioned in my post above, I really don't think the OP was arguing that Casspi is the Rockets' best defender. He was just raising the possibility that he may not be as bad as some people are claiming, and that his defensive contribution might be better than advertised.
     
  8. KingLeoric

    KingLeoric Member

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    Proof that adv stats are bullsht.
     
  9. The Jabberwock

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    Hi Junkie!

    Actually - I (OP) totally agree with you.

    You see my point exactly, which Kuku somehow missed:

    I specifically wrote
    That is: I am NOT AT ALL implying Casspi is an outstanding 1 on 1 defender, or even generally an exceptional defender (Though he's not below average either, IMHO - hence I mentioned there WAS some personal merit too).

    I AM saying that the team's defense is better off with him in court (almost in any lineup he's been in).

    And that is really what counts! BB is a 5×5 sport...
    If you fit to create a better whole in a team,
    then you are a goid player for this team.

    Thanks for helping me clarify that.

    Oh, and BTW - I'm not anyone's only fan...
    I see that I need to add my signature again...

    .
     
  10. omgTHEpotential

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    CASSPI SHOULD START INSTEAD OF T-JONES.

    HE IS THE ROCKETS 3RD BEST PLAYER.

    ISRAEL 4 THE WIN.
     
  11. The Jabberwock

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    Nice one, mate, but don't get carried away... :)

    If Omri fullfills his potential - he might get to be
    the Rockets' 5th-6th most valuable player
    (i.e. 5th-6th best for the team)
     
  12. kuku

    kuku Member

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    No Jabberwock, I did NOT miss anything. This is the post I specifically quoted:
    There is nothing there you were implying that "Casspi is NOT AT ALL outstanding 1 on 1 defender."

    I have nothing against your original post. You posted the data without much comment and left for everyone's interpretation. That's fine!

    jtr already explained, in an indirect way, that the data are RAW but you somehow ignored that. It was when you make a statement (as bolded above), that you show your ignorant about the ratings, especially the last part:
    We don't even need to wait for the sample size to grow. Now explain to me why Mario Chalmer, after a full season, had a better NetRtg than LeBron last year?

    Norris Cole, who is a rotational player and considered one of the worst defenders from Heat, has a better DefRtg than LeBron?
     
  13. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    advanced crap
     
  14. highlander3128

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    Get over it. Your butt was kicked so bad that you better give it more time to heal.
     
  15. TheRealAllpro

    TheRealAllpro Morey only fan

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    those advance stats aren't advanced enough
     
  16. arusinov

    arusinov Member

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    Moneyball...

    When I've read those replies which call advanced stats "crap" it reminded me about this movie Moneyball... It's about baseball, and we're not playing hmm... much baseball here in Israel (actually not at all) so I didn't understand none of professional details mentioned there.
    But general outline is much like in this thread: scouts ('old-timers") are speaking about "does this guy move like good baseball player?" or "could he became allstar in several years?" (I don't remember exact words but something like that) while GM and his stats specialist want to brings up cheap players which would answer the team immediate needs. And they're doing it mostly looking at "crap" like advanced stats (including for example, signing player which wasn't used correctly according to their estimation - and should play other position, etc...)
    Can it be that improvement from Casspi, Garcia, Delfino, for some extent from Brooks and Asik (I mean last year, not this...) is because Morey is doing something like this?
    Yes, I know Omri is not moving much "like good basketball player" - his steps sometimes looks a bit awkward (I feel he never get 100% comfortable with bigger muscles he developed after two first NBA years) and his shot while quick on release and automatic is not pretty - low release with some unnecessary motion (actually Casspi wasn't much of shooter back in Israel, he developed those skills just before NBA rookie season), but does those things prevent Omri from doing good job? I think not...
     
  17. cn0gd

    cn0gd Member

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    OP implying trade Dwright?:rolleyes:
     
  18. noone

    noone Rookie

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    Omri Casspi could of played in the nba when he was 17. He was that talented. For some reason he struggled so far. I think it may be hormones and not eating the right stuff to manage them beef tar tar, sushi, raw egg that his causes mental lapses.
     
  19. The Jabberwock

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    Hi Kuku!

    Good questions (I'm glad you asked them, as it made me think and check), and so I'll try to dignify them with serious answers
    (With no by-the-way mention of the knowledge or ignorance of any fellow CF).

    I'd better address your questions one by one.

    In this first reply post I will try to explain "why Mario Chalmers, after a full season, had a better NetRtg than LeBron last year?", as you dared me.

    1. Well, first and simply put - HE DIDN'T. :)
    Chalmers and James were TIED last year with the Heat's best NetRtg of 14.6/14.1 respectively.
    You can't seriously treat this 0.5 point as a significant lead.
    You may actually say that Wade (13.0) shared the lead with them, or even add 4 more Heat players (Battier, Bosh, Haslem & Andersen), with ratings of 11.9, 11.9, 10.8, and 10.0, respectively - all above the team's combined rating, which was an impressive 9.9.
    The rest of the team members all have a NetRtg of 5.5 or less!

    So - what you described as a curious anomaly of Chalmers leading on LBJ (for me to explain), is actually a closely packed rotation of 7 players with a very high NetRtg, and it poses a strong argument for MY case:
    I claim that these stats ARE meaningful and that these 7 players, above the others, formed the winning Heat lineups (Even using the eyeball test).


    2. The bias of the large contributors - :eek:
    There IS one valid mathematical resason that can explain why Lebron would be inherently lower on rating, or to be exact - why he would be closer to the team's combined rating: He played more minutes than Chalmers or anyone else.
    You see: Hypothtically - if you never leave the court and play the whole time, game in and game out, your full season NetRtg would be EXACTLY the team's NetRtg (You understand why, right?)

    So, as a rule, the more minutes you play per game - the closer you get to the team rating (or he closer you pull the team rating towards yours).
    Lebron's larger contribution of 38 minutes a game makes him inherently closer to the combined team rating than Mario's 27 minutes.
    It's just the nature of the calculation - not an anomaly.


    That's it. Thanks again for asking.

    Do you need me to explain the Noris Cole anomaly as well?
     
  20. rezdawg

    rezdawg Member

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    This actually proves nothing.
     

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