Either start Lin, or bring in a new starting PG, Bev ain't cuttin' it.

So Lin isn't a turover machine? Sloppy Ball handler? Is my assesment of him not being a supertar but simply a solid guard garbage? Lmao, ok.

 

Your assessment of him is garbage. Asking is he not a superstar shows your true nature. Nobody is saying he is a superstar. He's a very good, improving player with some attributes and the best PG on this team. He's not in Harden's league. He turns the ball over too much sometimes and at times his handles could be more secure but it isn't as constant as you put it.

 

That is a direct comparison between Harden and Lin on the offensive end. Harden first. How different do they look??? Harden obviously has a higher usage rate than Lin, and it certainly is not an indication that Lin could put up those numbers with a like usage rate.



Here Bev is first. Lin is obviously the better offensive player, despite not sharing the floor a majority of the time with offensive juggernauts like Howard, Parsons and Harden.



Above we see that Bev is defensively 0.10 PPS better than Lin. But Lin is on the floor much more without Howard and Asik, the defensive anchors of the team. Given that the NBA average for PPP is 0.98, Lin is obviously an above average defender.

 

well, there were enough shots last year with asik but this year, with dwight taking in 25 possessions a game and with less possessions overall compared to last year, there definitely isn't enough shots to go around in the starting lineup.

as it is now lin avg. 8-10 shots a game with harden, howard, and chandler all healthy. he shots/gm does down to 5-6 per game i would bet in the starting line up. how do i know this? well, in almost every game that he's played in so far this year with harden, he got most of his shots with harden off the floor. with harden on the floor, he ends up facilitating for harden and others and that's why he see his production dip in almost every 4th quarter after harden comes in.

 

2013-14 TOPG - I'd be more worried about Harden than Lin

 

Was there this much complaints about hidden agendas after Woodson cut Lin's minutes, shots, and made the Knicks focused about Melo instead?

 

Harden and Lin are very aggressive guards, much like Parker. Many of their turnovers are a result of misreading the capabilities or directional intent of their teammates. It will sort itself out.

 

I wouldn't say Bev give exactly what they want. How about a more reliable 3 for instance?

 

I have the same observation. Lin in NY always had players setting picks to start his dribble penetration. Even last year, we saw more of that. The young guns or no names were more than happy to set picks for their pg. This year, aside from Smith doing it more consistently, Lin is usually left to fend for himself where the other guys just wait for balls to pass to them to start their one on one hero ball. It seems the bigger the names the less reluctant they are to help set picks for the pg.

 

Turnovers per 48

Lin - 4.7
Harden - 4.8

Turnover%

Lin - 20.1
Harden - 15.6

Per minute on the floor they essentially turn the ball over at the exact same rate. The difference is that Harden dominates the ball much more than Lin. When you have the ball more, you are susceptible to more turnovers. The fact that Harden has the ball that much more than Lin and they have basically the same turnover rate per minute would point to Lin being, at the very least, a little more turnover prone.

That said Harden is no saint in this category. But simply looking at turnovers per game when one guy is playing almost 10 more minutes per game AND controls the ball much more is VERY misleading.

 

Harden is TO machine. He tends to turn ball over in the most crucial times more than any NBA players.

 

Those were the blow out wins against good playoff-bound teams, and there were great ball movements and great team offense. Lin and Harden were unstoppable taking term penetrating, attacking the rims or dishing out assists. Some fun games to watch, very unlike games in which Harden was the only option when he tends to hold the ball very long and hesitating until the last few seconds. Why do we throw away the good and retain the bad? Regression? Sigh!

 

I think the stats per 48 are really garbage. they are essential a extrapolation of a possible future action. Not a factual claim and to take with a grain of salt.
Its like to think in 30 minutes i lost 1 $ out of my pocket, does this meanin 48 minutes i will lost 1,6 $.

Stats can be wonderful but extrapolation looks more like a crystal ball. :grin:

 

Per 48 numbers aren't really garbage, but if you want to take that stance, how about this then....

Turnovers

Harden - 81
Lin - 51

Minutes played

Harden - 816
Lin - 518

Turnovers/minutes played

Harden - .09926471
Lin - .0984556

Nearly identical numbers...

 

I agree with you on why you can't start Lin with him, can you imagine how many turnover they would have combined?

 

To be fair, per minute is one way to look at TOV%, but you also have to remember that Harden shoots WAY more than he passes or attempts to facilitate. This will skew TO's per possession down substantially.

If I get the ball and shoot a jumper, the chance of a turnover is FAR smaller than if I attempt to create for team mates.

James Harden - 2013/14
FGA/gm - 16.9
Ast/gm - 5.8
TO/gm - 3.9
FGA/Ast ratio - 2.91

Jeremy Lin - 2013/14
FGA/gm - 9.8
Ast/gm - 4.2
TO/gm - 2.8
FGA/Ast ratio - 2.33

When Harden has the ball in his hands, he'll shoot 50% more often (not prone to turn over) yet he'll turn over the ball 34% more often.

What does this tell us? Nothing conclusive without digging deeper into the data.

However, I suspect if you backed out his jump shots and his assisted shots and looked more at his drives and passing, you'd find the results aren't quite what you think they are...

 

I was actually going to quote the stats from last year that showed Harden had the same effectiveness on the court regardless if Lin is on it or not. But, I guess this is more of a team fit argument than actually bean counting the total amount of shots available.

So let's do it your way. 1.6 shots per minute is 76.8 shots per game. The starting unit combined takes 73% of the total shots per game, but they also take up 69% of the total playing time. But then I noticed this:

Beverly: 8.5 FGA
Lin: 9.1 FGA

If the starting unit is starved for shots. How is Beverly pretty much getting the same amount of shots as Lin?

 

I see what you are saying, but I don't understand why you are using per game numbers here? Wouldn't per minute played be a better comparison?

 

Ratio of FGA to Assists is already weighted as it's a ratio. It won't change on a per game or per minute basis.

If you want to extract something more statistically rigorous, you're welcome to do the math.

 

Woodson got what he wanted. Felton + Kidd + Prigioni. Good luck to him.

He wanted to make Lin the back up to Kidd. And felt the Knicks were better with Felton.

He's part of the CAA. Melo is the face of the CAA in New York. Therefore Lin needs to defer to him, and not take the spotlight.

It's not hard to piece these together.

It's the way things have been with the Knicks since Melo got there. Live and die with Melo isolation. Sign players affiliated with CAA. Winning isn't the priority.