[ClutchFans] Rockets to begin season with Beverley, Asik as starters; Jeremy Lin off bench

I'm totally cool with the Bev experiment but if he continues to shoot such a low percentage, underperform on defense (maybe this is due the board overhyping him), and we continue with these first-rotation deficits - then it is NOT good for the Rockets. Do you see my point? Sucks to have our starters always leave us in a lurch. If Bev is hurt, then he shouldn't be starting right now and should be playing limited minutes.

Now McHale IS going to give up the TT. So we will see what happens.

Lin's history just doesn't give me a lot of confidence. We kept Jonny Flynn over him. GSW wanted Acie Law over him. The Knicks tried everyone at pg (Sumpert,Baron Davis,Toney Douglas, etc.) and then let him go for nothing and decided to go with Felton/Kidd/and some old Italian guy. McHale was giving Toney Douglas closing minutes last year. Now Lin is not starting. Is he going to be marginalized to the end of the bench? I dunno. Maybe my "eye test" sucks - or he's a locker room cancer or something.

 

You left off Beverley
w/Harden - 42.6%
w/Lin - 56.9%
w/Harden+Lin - 30.8%

(That last one is only 33 minutes; still, pretty odd)

 

I think the best strategy is to maximize your point differential over the other team. If that involves an amazing offense and just an average defense then so be it. If that involves an average offense and a superior defense, then so be it. I like Bev and hope he breaks out of this slump. All I am saying is if he does not, then we should consider juggling the rotation - rather than stick stubbornly to something that is not working optimally.

 

Of course it works.

We have a fairly solid 7-9 man rotation of players. It is not like 5 men start and another 5 enter the court who are somehow less efficient. It the various combinations of the same players.

And as I have already shown with the CURRENT starting lineup (Harden/Parsons/Jones/Howard), the net rating for Lin vs. Beverley is in favor of Bev. It is true the offense is better with Lin, but having two defensive liabilities on the floor in Lin/Harden just absolutely destroys our defense, which shows up in the +/-.

And there is no reason why Lin/Casspi can't check in 8-10 minutes into the first quarter and do their heavy offense set. Changing the starting lineups so Lin can start because he "deserves it" is silly.

 

True story. I friend from China at work. At first, the thought of Lin coming off the bench infuriated him. Now, he can't get enough of it.
Linsanity is a helluva drug!:grin:

 

Keep telling your friend Housanity is going to happen.
He will have a great year. Abundant Hotties are going to follow his trails.

 

Wow, a fan that's rooting for his man to come off the bench, how supportive.

Seriously, the forums in Taiwan are still pretty frustrated about Lin not starting.

Your friend should be an individual case.

 

Say what? They've been experimenting with the line ups all season. And weren't YOU the one that mentioned comparing Apples and Apples?

Oh right, you did...

And NOW you want to do a +- across EVERY line up with unequal minute distribution across the line ups?

And who said anything about "deserves"? You're the one interjecting "deserves". I've never said one word about "deserves". Sounds like you're the one bringing in terms like "Lof" and "deserves". I'm only concerned with what gets us the lead as quickly as possible.

The best line up on the team is a line up with Lin, Harden, Parsons, Dwight + Garcia/Casspi, not Bev + Jones. It's not even remotely close. And singling out Lin NOT to start when you basically just said that Garcia/Casspi should start...

If you want a big lead early, you start Garcia/Casspi vs Jones and Lin vs Bev. It's that simple.

So, you acknowledge that the sample size *seems* to indicate that Casspi should be starting as our PF, yet you want to ignore that the Casspi/Garcia line up has it's largest impact WITH Lin in the line up and NOT Beverley.

You want to ignore select data points, when the vast amount of statistical evidence indicates that Lin with Casspi/Garcia has the biggest point differential and offensive impact.

And now your big justification for ignoring it is...

No, NOT starting Lin when he's part of our most effective line up is silly. Does Jones deserve the start over Casspi/Garcia? Jones has been with the Rockets FAR longer. He's put in his time on the team. Guess what? Who cares? What counts is the Casspi/Garcia line up is BETTER.

It sure *Looks* like someone here has an agenda, and it sure has nothing to do with the actual data.

And yes, there is a reason you don't run the Bev/Jones line up for 6-8 mins early, you don't want to play Harden for 12 mins straight. So unless you're NOT running Harden in the starting line up, how exactly do you intend to run the Lin/Harden/Parsons/Dwight + Garcia/Casspi line up for the last 4-6 mins? Or do you plan on sitting Harden AND Lin while Bev starts.

Maybe you better rethink the minutes rotation before you make such bizarre suggestions.

For a guy who complains about people not being fans of the Rockets, you sure are working hard to justify running a bad line up...

 

Torocan is squishing larvs8 like a tomato can.

 

Interesting. Your posts are not based on dumb ass emotion, which is refreshing, and it's not surprising that you are an analytics guy. (rather than a Lin fan searching for stats to backup a predetermined conclusion)

I tend to agree with you about a good offense creating a hole for the other team, and Lin starting would give us a better chance of that. I also think that is more of a recipe for success against the middlin and lesser teams, but not the good teams.

Consider that we have a team that (i) regularly shows lack of defensive effort, (ii) is coming off relatively poor defensive season last year, and (iii) has shown the ability to give up points in bunches. If we come out each game with an offensive focus, it provides an excuse to not play defense and just try to outscore the other team. Defense is not something that you just turn on, it's about mindset, priority and effort.

The TT concept really screwed up the offense and hopefully we'll see how the teams functions offensively with a more traditional or smallball lineup with Bev starting. If that functions well on offense but is better defensively than last year, then that's the way to go. If we keep having bad starts on offense, I might change my mind about the best way to go.

This discussion will be a better one in 5 games, or 10 games from now. But a good discussion.

 

torocan is a very good poster. but in this case it's really not all that great a feat to tear apart our resident president of the royce white fan club...

 

Yah, I was thinking about that overnight. I think that the data may be polluted by not "locking down" the remaining players on the line up.

I was only subbing Harden/Lin on the NBAWowy tool. What I might do is lock in Parsons, Dwight and Garcia/Casspi as well in order to isolate the data sets more. This way you don't get line ups like Garcia + Casspi + Bev + Lin affecting the TS%.

I'll see about taking a look at it later and see what it spits out.

 

Hear, hear. Torocan should be banned for disrespect. #bewell

 

Lin has benefited most from the 6th man role, he should be grateful.

 

Smh @ this thread still going.

 

Have more confidence in Lin. He is a different guy from last year, a different guy than during Linsanity. The jumper. The left hand. The defense. Lin is flat out a much better player and that isn't debatable either, and anyone who says otherwise is just a dumb ass hater (and there are some out there, who should be ignored).

The part that is hard about being a fan is investing emotions and expectations in Lin, when it could go south for any number of reasons. But that's also the hardest part of being Lin's fan, because of the possibilities, because he is a pioneer and we all want him to succeed so badly.

Lin is early in his career and getting better with each day. Health permitting, Lin will be a factor in the NBA for a decade.

 

No wonder lavs8 was a life long critic of Yao. Now Lin is added to his list of agenda. It's kinda sad.

 

This is the kind of post that seems like trolling. Lin has earned his respect and then some by workign his ass off, and flat out balling. Yep, he should be grateful that he makes a lot of money, that he gets to play in the NBA, that he has many blessings. All pro athletes should be grateful for that.

But to say that he should be grateful for the 6th man role is just BS trolling. That suggests that he doesn't deserve a meaningful role on this team, that he is just getting to play based on factors other than merit. It's straight bullsh_t.

So go ahead and GTFO.

 

Why people are still responding to that troll when it concerns Lin is beyond me. It's really not worth it.

 

yeah , it's sad , some just kept trolling with the 6th man thing as if Lin only played better this season because he's playing off the bench . Or using it to justified the decision of benching him, Ignoring that he averaged 18.8ppg and 6.4 assist from the 5 games he's started this season.

Dude worked his ass off to improve during the off season, and that's the reason he's playing better, i doubt the 6th man role play a significant part in his performance.