How Often will Hack-a-Dwight be Employed This Season?

I think most teams will use it at least once in a game. Some coaches might not though, out of...pride, I guess?

 

Basing your approximation from a 2-game sample isn't a very good idea. There's no way to judge this, it's completely dependent on the team and the scenario: whether they'll be able to efficiently score on us after the free throws, whether Dwight is above 50% that game, etc.

Either way, I don't see it being used too much. Just a hunch. We'll learn to adjust to it, and find a way to deal with it through the first 30 games.

 

You can bet GS Warriors s will do it.

 

Until Dwight starts shooting better from the line, it's going to be used frequently. I hate what it does to the game, but as long as the league allows it and Dwight continues to miss more than half his free throws, coaches would be crazy not to use it.

 

There is a stat that talks about how it hurts the team employing it. As good of defense as the Rockets play, it won't be used much.

 

Whenever we are in a good offensive rhythm and if Dwight's FT is not improving.

 

When we hacked Dwight last year, I admit that it was fun to watch. Now that Dwight is a Rocket, I guess I'm being a little hypocritical about it all

 

until he starts hitting them 60% of the time. we have the 2 players who led the league in ft attempts and we can't capitalize on them so far. they should allow howard to dunk the free throw.

 

I can see a lot of teams employing this tactic especially if they're in danger of the Rocket's blistering offense leading to an early blowout.

 

No telling how often it will be used...but in my opinion, "hack an anyone" applied to a player who does not have the ball diminishes the quality of the game. Entertainment value, for me, goes right out the window with the "hack-a" strategy and makes that part of the game barely watchable in terms of what I want to see in basketball. Doesn't matter if it's Dwight on our team on Shaq on any of the teams he played for or any other player.

Personally, I think the rules ought to be amended to disallow the strategy of hacking the man away from the ball or to allow it only a limited number of times (say, twice) before invoking a technical foul against the hacking team. Outright bear hugs as soon as the ball is in play? Please...it's one of the worst allowed strategies of the game in terms of giving the game fan appeal.

Hack the guy with the ball all you want, but hacking the guy away from the ball just to force free throws makes for pitiful fan entertainment.

 

It's apart of the game, it will happen.. We used it, and we prepared ourselves for it to be used against us as soon as Dwight announced he was coming here. We just have to hope our defense holds up, and/or Dwight and Asik start making more FTs..

 

So far, it has been used against us 50% of the time. So, I estimate that it will continue to be used against us roughly 50% of the time.

 

Dallas was playing us with playoff intensity and strategy the other night. Not every team will have a chip on their shoulder against us like Dallas does, and not every team is coached by Rick Carlisle.

25% or less.

 

Depends on what % Dwight shoots from the line. If he hits 60% or so, it wouldn't make much mathematical sense to do it in most games-- you are giving up 1.20 points per possession and racking up personal fouls if you are doing it as early as Dallas did. Even a top level NBA offense doesn't average 1.20 points per possession consistently.


If he hits under 50%, then we are likely to see it more often given that the math would work out in more situations since we are talking about giving up less than 1.00 point per possession, which would likely be well below the Rockets' expected offensive efficiency in most games.

 

I can see other teams employing this tactic until Howard starts consistently hitting his FTs especially in tight, close games. However, their complete befuddlement at how to contend with a 2-3 zone plus McHale's total lack of response is far more troubling to me than Howard doing his "Shaq at the FT line" impersonation.

 

As near as I can calculate the PPP for the NBA last season was 1.04 (Total points/(FGA - OR + TOV +.436*FTA). That means that the Rockets are OK if Howard hits 52% of his free throws over the entire season.

http://www.nba.com/celtics/stats/inside-the-numbers/points-per-possession-pop-up.html

 

The issue is not whether the Rockets can be better than NBA average when the opponent hacks Howard.

First, the Rockets are most likely going to generate well above the NBA average efficiency for the season. Given that the opposing team would be playing the Rockets and not the hypothetical average NBA team, the baseline calculation should be based on what the Rockets' efficiency is and accounting for other factors (set forth below).

Second, an opposing coach's decision is to compare sending Howard to the line to what the Rockets would otherwise be expected to score in that game in that specific possession, not overall in the season. So, if the Rockets are, for example, matched up against a crappy defensive team who cannot match up with the Rockets and are scoring at a torrid pace, like 1.25 or 1.30 points per possession, through the first 30 minutes of that game, the opposing coach would have to take this information into account in calculating whether it's worth it to hack Howard.

 

The Rockets averaged 1.0685121952 PPP last season. This problem is solvable for an entire season (or large subset of games) and can never take into consideration in game decisions by the opponents coach. We can however be relatively certain that over a large number of games the calculation should approximate the actual needed FT%.