Elite Rebounding & Paint Protection vs. Stretch4/Spreading the Court

If we get elite rebounding we are going to get more possessions. If we get more possessions then thats more chance to score. I admit that I am not a stat guru but it seems to be that simple. Unless a stat guy can tell me otherwise?

Take last night case in point against Charlotte. We didnt really play so well offensively yet with all those extra possessions and control we were able to push out an arms length lead seemingly like it was nothing.

Its like having a running back that can give you 6+ yards a carry. it makes everything else easier.

Im going to start a thread about rebounds because its key. Not sexy at all but key

 

It depends a lot on the quality of the players involved. A stretch 4 works best when the 5 is an elite rebounder and protects the paint. Asik is better than most stretch 4s. I don't want to see Asik traded. Never having a minute with the game in doubt without Howard or Asik on the court is a lot more valuable than adding a PF to improve the offense outside a few exceptions. If he is traded, there should a star player not named Rondo coming to the Rockets.

I have heard stats guys (Morey included) that going small tends to help the offense more than it hurts the defense. The context I heard Morey say this was in regards to backups. Generalizations don't generally override significant talent differences.

 

Howard and Asik out rebounded the other team by themselves.

Rebounding keep the other team from getting second chances and at times allows for run and gun type of plays.

Rebounding also give us second opportunities. We had so many offensive rebounds by both in which they tipped in the ball.

Now, the main question is about space flooring. I believe that, if they post Dwight and the other big comes to help then it allows for OReb for Asik so it keeps everyone to thei man. Plus we have elite shooting, although it wasn't on display yesterday.

Not many bigs will be able to score on us. That makes it hard for teams like Lakers, Pacers, clips, grizzlies to get their game plan going. I'd say it will also make it a struggle for the warriors.

 

can we please stop talking about TT as if they are on the court together for the whole game.

Asik and Howard played together for 13 minutes, last night.

When Morey talks about elite rim protection and rebounding, he is mainly talking about having one of the two on the court for all 48 minutes versus trading Asik, and to go TT until we actually get a starting PF on the team.

But to answer the question, the single biggest stat (aside from points) that can measure winning is which team had the most possessions. Rebounding and low TOs will when a lot of games. I don't think we can attribute the high TOs to 13 minutes of Asik on the court together with Howard. But the rebounding was definitely about having one of the on the court at all times vs trading Asik.

 

It will depend on matchups. Against San Antonio, Memphis, Clippers it will be great. Against New Orleans, Minnesota, maybe GSW, maybe not.

What's encouraging about that is the teams in the first list are much better.

 

depends on context, the other guys. If I am having Howard and Asik and my other guys are MKG, John Wall and Tyreke Evans that's a very bad combination. Nobody can shoot on that team. But surround the TT with shooters like Beverley, parsons, and Hrden and I am liking the team a lot.

 

Just for the record:

1. Last night we shot 36% from 3. Last year we shot 36.6%. We are still a good 3pt shooting team.
2. Last year we led the league in turnovers. I don't think we will get worse.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/miscellaneous-per-game/sort/avgTurnovers/year/2013

First off, for 35 minutes during the game we did have a 3pt shooter playing the 4 on the court.

Secondly, for the other 13 minutes of TT, don't we need a stretch 4 as prerequisite for even having this discussion, unless this is a "Casspi should start" thread, trade idea thread about trading Asik for a PF, or an NBA team comparison thread.

 

I would agree. Shooting, rebounding, turnovers, and free throws are considered the 4 biggest factors to team success. Rockets should win rebounding, shooting, and free throws against most opponents.

 

agree, but what I was saying is number of Possessions is the single most important stat vs any of those other four, which makes the combination of rebounds and TOs arguably more important than TS% (which combines shooting and FTs)

 

I don't love the Asik/Howard combo on offense, but I can see it will work in spurts. The good thing is that Howard can pass and if they bring the double off Asik, I saw Howard looking for a quick interior pass to an open Asik under the rim. The thing is when they bring the double off a guard, then the ball rotates around eventually to Asik and he's going to have to make a short jumper. If we're going to play this way, they are going to have to make FTs at a better clip. They're going to get to the line a lot.

The thing that I don't love about it overall is that it slows down the game. It's hard to expect Dwight to protect the paint, grab the rebound, and run down the court for easier transition opportunities. Teams like GS that can run and have bigs that can hit jumpers are going to exploit the TT.

Overall, you can't put this lineup out there to close games and it slows the game down, so not sure there's a lot there. Morey seems into it though. He mentioned he likes the big lineup and the small lineup more so than a 'traditional' lineup.

 

Asik and Howard probably isn't the best combination when going against the likes of Aldridge or Love but given how rare good stretch 4s are, they could do well with keeping both of them on the floor. Heck Memphis plays all season like that with Gasol and Randolph.

 

Did I read this correctly? When they double off a guard, then the guard is open. So you get the ball to the open guard. Did you mean to say, when they double off of Asik? That's pretty hard to do if Asik is weakside. His man has to move a long way, and Asik would just go to the rim.

I'm not following this critique at all. Especially since you mentioned Howard making interior passes to an open Asik.

Sure, it is slower than having Parsons at the 4 for sure, but is it slower than league average. Not sure, yet. Elite defense does lead to turnovers; and TOs are the best way to run, and don't necessarily require a big man trailer (aka secondary break). But, remember, we only played TT for 13 minutes last night.

 

I would disagree with that statement. Asik did a damn good job when he guarded both of the guys you mentioned. He basically shut them down last season when he guarded them.

 

The only thing in the NBA that matters is point differential. How a team maximizes that is irrelevant. The Rockets were at a +3.6(? memory) PPG last season. At +8 PPG differential a team may be termed elite and a serious threat to win a chip. That said I do already miss the Ferrari offense from last season.

 

Based on RAPM, I posted before that the impact of 30 min Ryan Anderson produced 2-3 less wins than 20 min of Asik, but a 30 min of Asik could easily mean 5 more wins for NOH and might put them into the playoffs.

However if you change Ryan Anderson w/ Love or LMAldrige, the result is obvious. That was why Morey never pulled the trigger on Anderson.

 

Actually, it is completely the opposite.

Point Differential is not a box score stat that coaches care about. Coaches don't say, we need to win this game by 8 pts or we aren't elite. It just plays out that way. All coaches care about is the W. You must be thinking about college football, soccer and hockey where pt spread is actually part of the rankings.

So, the most important stat for coaches is not PT Spread. You are talking about how that happens to play out over an entire season....to go with superior talent, too. Possessions and shooting efficiency/FTs are the most important.

 

we are going to dominate the boards, but i'm very worried about asik or dwight having to guard someone outside the paint. d-mo and t jones not stepping up to that 4 spot hurt really bad

 

Sorry, I'm assuming the defense rotates and the ball swings around to weak side and finds Asik which will happen.

what I also saw yesterday was Asik and Dwight hovering on either side of the paint. They're close enough that they can send Asik's guy underneath to double Dwight. That's not going to happen if a stretch 4 is camped out at the three pt line.

 

well point differential is a really good indicator of future success. more so than win totals in fact.