Here's the setup: The governemnt and the car companies want to move to hybrid vehicles in order to reduce dependancy on foreign oil (government) and to sell more cars (car companies). The problem: Oil companies are against this because people will by less gas and they'll lose money (and we <i>all</i> know how much government is "in the pocket" of "big oil" ). The solution: Start a war and have tensions about the war increase gas prices to such a level as to force people into hybids. If the price stays high enough for long enough it won't have to come down because people will be used to the price. Now, because we all have new, hybrid cars people are buying less gas but they are spending more at the same time. Who wins: Government can say they are doing something about reducing dependancy on foreign oil and the get "environmental points" as well. Car makers sell more new hyprid cars because gas costs so much. Oil companies keep their profits. Who loses: The consumer. Of course, I don't believe this at all (as a matter of fact, I'm generally think good things about Bush and the reasons for the war). I just thought it would be fun to think about.
I know you're theory is hypothetical, but if it were true, don't you think the fall of Iraq would have taken more than a month? Gasoline prices are already on the way back down.
And once the Iraqi oil starts hitting the market in significant amounts, the price should drop even further, especially since Iraq will not be part of OPEC any longer. Plus, I don't think the car companies want people to start buying hybrids right now since so few companies have them available for sale. And the profit per car is, to my understanding, not nearly as large as for their gasoline-powered vehicles, especially on those big SUVs.
I heard that when you own a hybrid car you get a 4,000 dollar deduction on your taxes that car would pay for itself. Not to mention get great gas mileage
Your theory is flawed. Oil prices will drop a ton because of this war and the gov't already knew that. If prices get to about $22 a barrel, that's equivelant of a $400 billion tax break for consumers and businesses in the U.S.
From IRS.gov: Clean Fuel Tax Deduction For Hybrid Vehicles Tax Tip 2003-44, Mar. 4, 2003 If you are the original owner of a qualifying hybrid vehicle – one that combines an electric motor with a gasoline-powered engine – you may be eligible to claim a one-time tax deduction on your federal income tax return, says the IRS. There are three Toyotas – the 2001, 2002 and 2003 Prius models – and four Hondas – the 2000, 2001 and 2002 Insight and the 2003 Civic Hybrid – that qualify for this tax deduction. The maximum allowable deduction amount is $2,000. That amount was set after the Toyota and Honda corporations documented for the IRS the incremental costs of buying their hybrid vehicles. The deduction must be taken for the year in which the vehicle was first used. For a car first used before 2002, a taxpayer may claim the deduction on an amended tax return. This benefit is taken as an adjustment to income. You do not have to itemize deductions on your tax return to claim it. Include your deduction on line 34 of Form 1040, and identify as “clean fuel.” Federal tax law allows individuals to claim a deduction for the incremental cost of buying a motor vehicle that is propelled by a clean-burning fuel. Hybrid vehicles obtain greater fuel efficiency and produce fewer emissions than similar vehicles powered solely by conventional gasoline-powered engines. For more information on the clean fuel deduction, download Publication 535, Business Expenses (hybrid vehicles do not have to be owned or used by businesses to qualify for the deduction), or order it by calling the IRS toll free at 1-800-TAX-FORM (1-800-829-3676). For the record, the state of Arizona had, for a time, a really generous tax credit program to foster purchases of cleaner-burning vehicles. It was a financial disaster for the state and was, as far as I know, discontinued.
With higher prices for hybrids compared to comparable "normal" cars, one would start to see gasoline price savings 10 years down the road (excluding tax incentives.) That hybrid better last longer than 10 years
That would depend on how much you drive, of course. But for the average driver (15K per year), the Hybrid Civic would seem to save roughly $271 per year in gasoline costs (city driving at $1.50 per gallon). And for those who do a lot of highway driving, you may not see any savings at all (Civic Hybrid vs. Regular Civic).
