Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Right now, more than whether Bev or Lin fit better with Harden, I am concerned about who will fit better with Howard. ... Harden will get his.

 

the first team plays slower when LIN is on the court? not too many fast break... announcers all over the league saying Houston is that team that loves to run... oh ok

 

It did increase. It appears that harden had to do much more when Beverley was on the floor.Thus, more chance to get fouled. Also, Lin feeds Harden more efficently and puts him in a better spot so he a good look and does not get fouled as much.

 

That is certainly the only reason. The main reason was TD. Everything ran through him. Manu could be more of a scoring/energy off the bench type than Lin who is more a facilitator. Manu's role and Harden's role in OKC were more similar.


OP:
Nice one. Confirms the eye-test. Much more ISO ball with Lin off the court, not so fun, have to rely on the refs too much and could wear down Harden much more easily. Most importantly, as you point out, lower FG% for the team. It'd be interesting if you could find the TO stats in this perspective as well.

PS.
Guys, BDK is one of the most prominent racists out there. It's too bad he's not banned but he is who he is.

 

Lin can run the first and second units better than Beverley.

 

This may be simply because Harden is a Superstar and he has the ball in his hands much more when Beverly is on the court. However, a a one men team is usually not desireable.

 

So you're saying that the team as a whole suffers when Lin and Harden are on the court? If true, and I would actually say it's not. But let's suppose it's true...

Isn't that the ultimate reason why Lin needs to come off the bench? So that he doesn't hinder Harden from being the superstar that Harden is?

 

this needs to be validated by Durvasa

 

Haha, I'm a racist because I feel Lin gets intimidated while Beverly does the intimidating? Lin was clearly intimidated in last years playoffs before, during, and after his injury. You could see it in his face. More fear than injury in my opinion. Beverly on the other hand was a bulldog, accepting the intensity and giving it right back. Regular season games and stats mean nothing. It's how you compete and perform in the playoffs when the intensity of the game reaches a much higher level. This happens occasionally at the end of some regular season games which is why McHale often opted to sit Lin and play Beverly. He knows he can count on Beverly to compete and doesn't yet have confidence that Lin will do the same. In my opinion, it's the primary reason there is even a debate.

 

The simple reason that Beverly's plus/minus is better is because the team plays with more confidence, swagger, and intensity when Beverly is on the court. His fearlessness and aggression is contagious and why he creates a high plus/minus which generates wins. Has nothing to do with numbers all you analytical geeks.

 

Wow, SMDH. The number of times Lin closed games is not even comparable to the number of games Bev closed, also we didn't win all those games either with Bev.

 

Yes, it's quite subjective. Do people call David Lee weak because he got injured and couldn't play much during the playoffs? What about Blake Griffin, he got injured two years in a role during the playoffs and couldn't help his team as much, is he meek/weak also?

 

Although CXbby's points regarding deficiencies in the OP's numbers analysis seem correct, even if the numbers don't prove it, the OP's point that Harden's efficiency is likely to go up with Lin on the floor also seems intuitively true. Harden will get open looks when assisted by Lin that he won't get if he has to create for himself all the time.

 

very very good research. I especially liked this part:

"So, based on these numbers, can we still say Beverley fits Harden better than Jeremy? I'd say Beverley fits better with Harden's ego, since obviously, when playing with Beverley, Harden got way more ball in his hand, even he has lower efficiency, he got to shot more and gain much better stats. Whereas play with Jeremy, though Jeremy would set his up, and he would get points easier, but he would have overall lower numbers on the board, since the shots also goes to other teammates on the floor."

This makes total sense that Harden would get more shots with Bev on the floor - and scores more since he gets the ball more. On other hand, with Lin in the game, he makes everyone else better with his passing. So what do we want here, more points that are less efficient or everyoen else shooting a better percetnage?

I'm hestitant to say this is going to be true moving forward, after all it's a new season and Bev still does not have enough minutes/games on the floor, but really great work!

 

I think Jeremy has the potential to be an incredible point guard but the jury is still out as to whether he'll become one. He looks much stronger and more determined this year so I'm hoping he'll step up and put an end to the debate. He's proven he's a capable regular season player but still needs to prove he's consistently capable of competing when the intensity and competition is at it's highest level. If he can do that, he has the talent to be an all star. If he can't, I'd much rather have Beverly on the court at the end of games and in the playoffs.

 

Alright this statement is confusing

Beverley's plus minus is better when Beverley is on the court? right :grin:

 

I agree. But I do think, optimally, the Rockets could have waited to see IF Jeremy failed to compete when the intensity and competition was at the highest levels this year, before trying out the Bev solution in this way, particularly given Lin's significant improvements in the off season. It seemed like Lin had earned that much IMHO. Plus it is not like the preseason will give us a good use case for such intense game situations.

Now that they are in the midst of it, I'm fine with it. But I don't think it comes without its costs, the major one being distracting from other priorities they have now.

 

Using the stats at nbawowy.com, I came across the following splits for Harden:

Code:

[B]            Jan-Feb                  Mar-Apr[/B]
[I]            poss ppp  usg         poss ppp  usg   [/I]         
Beverley    261  0.89 38.3        358  1.21 38.5
Lin         1073 1.21 27.7        1138 1.05 27.2
[SIZE="1"]
Jan-Feb: January 15th through February 28th
Mar-Apr: March 1st through April 17th

poss: possessions
ppp: points per used possession
usg: percentage of team possessions used

Beverley: Beverley on the floor, but no Lin
Lin: Lin on the floor, but no Beverley[/SIZE]

As reported in the OP, the evidence is pretty consistent that Harden's usage jumps way up with Beverley instead of Lin as his back-court partner. However, the efficiency story is mixed.

Looking at games from January 15th through the end of February (Beverley's first game was Jan 15), Harden was much more efficient playing with Lin. But when we look at games from March 1st to April 17th (end of regular season), Harden was actually more efficient playing alongside Beverley, even with the extremely high usage. For instance, during this stretch Harden was scoring 20.5 pts/36min with 56.4 TS% playing next to Lin. By comparison, he was scoring 32.5 pts/36min with 60.7 TS% playing next to Beverley.

There are other factors which makes this hardly an apples-to-apples comparison, of course. Harden played far fewer minutes with Beverley, so there wasn't the same level of chemistry between them. Also, Harden played more of his minutes with Lin in the 1st quarter, when he was presumably the freshest physically and less likely to force shots.

 

Great analysis work. It doesn't tell the entire story though. You also have to factor in the following:

- Who does Bev/Lin play with while on the floor?
- Who is playing with Bev/Lin and Harden when they are playing together?
- What tempo are they playing at?