Unofficial ClutchCity.net Game Thread: Warriors @Suns

But of course.


btw, when did that happen?

 

Maybe I fell asleep and dreamt it.

But it will happen... lots in the future!!!

If someone could pull Amare's intensity & stick it into Yao... it would be happening 3 times a game, 4 times a year.

 

Based on your numbers, the chances of both happening is exactly 9%

Here's My Probabilistic Assessment
Let's assume every game here is a "fair" game, like flipping a coin. Then the probability of winning is 1/2 and the probability of losing is 1/2 too. Therefore:

The Probability that the Rox win three games is 1/2*1/2*1/2 = .125
Similarly,
The Probability that the Suns lose three games is also .125

The probability that the Rox win three and the Suns lose three is the product of these two numbers.

0.125 * 0.125 = 1.5625%

Sadly, if I were a betting man, I would bet on PHX getting the 8th seed.



mathSAGE

 

You do realize that this is an incorrect statistical analysis, right? The odds of winning every game is seldom 1/2...that is why there are point spreads to intice someone to take a bet. If the odds were 1/2, why would anybody ever bet against the Spurs, Kings, Mavs, etc.

 

now saying yao is good is one thing, but justifying jamison 's flagrant on amare as deserved is another. amare was about to posterize jamison, and 'twan didn't want to be on sportscenter looking like an idiot, so he tries to pull amare down..now 'twan's still on sportscenter REALLY looking like an idiot.

also, your prediction is already toast, suns won by 16 and amare had another double-double. he's showing he's getting stronger for the the playoff/ROY push and yao's getting posterized by ostertag.

 

True. But unless someone can give more credible probabilities, I'm better off looking at this from the "most conservative approach" possible w/o arbitrarily biasing anything in favor/or against the Rox and Suns. But let's do another hypothetical to appease mine and perhaps your curiosity too.

Rox next three games look winnable: so let's say they have a 75% chance of winning.
To win 3 straight, we're looking at 42%

Let's say the suns ALSO have an above average chance of winning these next three games, but less than the Rox, b/c they are facing tougher teams; I'll give them a 60% chance of winning.
To lose 3 straight, we're looking at 6.4%

For both to happen, the probability is now 2.7%

Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

As for oddsmakers, I've never really thought very highly of how odds are set here in the States. The better system for betting is the parimutuel system folks overseas use for Jai Alai and Horse racing. For those of you who are interested... I recommend folks read the following.

http://www.cs.sunysb.edu/~skiena/jaialai/excerpts/node15.html

But I appreciate the response, Gater. Let me the first to say, "thank you" for your consistently intelligent posts over the season. I recognize your handle in any thread and would gladly read what you have to say.

Until next year!



theSAGE

 

It wasn't a prediction, you idiot.

THAT WAS POSTED AFTER THE COMPLETION OF THE GOLDEN STATE, CALIFORNIA WARRIORS BASKETBALL CLUB VERSUS THE SUNS FROM THE CITY OF PHOENIX. Now why would I post something that doesn't chronologically fit? I don't see the edit function working, hmm?

Oh and btw, its 'TAWN, not twan.

Did I call you an idiot? That wasn't me, I swear.

 

Sage -
You're not leaving, are you? You must mean "next season"....

Trust me, you won't be able to stay out of here all summer!

I wanted to take another crack at the odds, but it is late and I am too tired to dig out my college stats books!