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How Many Shots are Available to the Rockets Starting Power Forward?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jtr, Oct 7, 2013.

  1. Rox23

    Rox23 Member

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    The only way Asik conveivably gets traded is if McHale's "Twin Towers" is a complete bust. Right now McHale is borderline infatuated with the idea and so no trade anytime soon. So for those of you who want to trade for a PF...hope and pray that Asik and Dwight don't work.
     
  2. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Carl it makes perfect sense. The stats posted on the web for individuals on a team are the individuals statistics not statistics as they fit into the team framework. For example take TJones shots per game. 4.9 FGA per game for the 19 games he appeared in. However that number does not comprehend his contribution to the team. If we are working with a teams stats for a season his actual contribution to the team total is 94 shots / 82 games or ~1.1 shots per game. That way all of the individual player contributions can be summed up and they will equal the stated 82.5 shots the Rockets team actually attempted last season. If you do not understand this logic you probably should be wary commenting on stats based posts. It is JuCo statistics 101.

    You consistently confuse game box score stats with season stats. Individual box score stats change day to day. A seasons stats are a statistically significant data set that is much less muddied by "noise". And resistant to movement season to season.

    %USG is an advanced stat. It is easily obtainable and can be displayed in any number of ways using my advanced stats application.

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=244488

    And if anyone is interested in the team contribution to FGA for the players here they are:

    Marcus Camby 0.65
    Reggie Williams 1.61
    Ronnie Brewer 2.41
    Omri Casspi 1.95
    Greg Smith 3.34
    Patrick Beverley 2.30
    Donatas Motiejunas 2.60
    Terrence Jones 1.15
    Francisco Garcia 3.66
    Aaron Brooks 3.85
    Omer Asik 7.49
    Dwight Howard 9.91
    Jeremy Lin 10.94
    Chandler Parsons 11.45
    James Harden 16.30

    And they nicely add up to 79.5 FGA per game.
     
  3. Htownballer38

    Htownballer38 Member

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    A lot of them over analysis all the times pimpn..LOL What you just said, I agree 100%al. Harden, Howard will get most of the shots. Then Lin and Parson behind them. Everybody else will have make those shots when the opportunities present themselves. Real simple.
     
  4. Htownballer38

    Htownballer38 Member

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    There rolls has changed, both Dmo and Jones will get more playing time. So bump their shot attempts up 2-3.
     
  5. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    I agree of course. But arbitrary data manipulation only leads to sin and perdition. About 29 games into next season I will be using the actual 2013-2014 data.
     
  6. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    1. Sure, if you are trying to figure out how the team added up to 82.5 FGA per game, then the "discount" is how you arrive at the number (though there are way simpler ways).

    But if you are trying to estimate how many "leftover shots" that a 5th member of the starting 5 will take per 33 minutes by subtracting the shots per minute taken by each of the other 4 guys from the Rockets overall shots per minute last season-- and the OP says you are, then this "discounted FGA/game makes little sense.

    Again, no one is trying to calculate the total % of team FGAs that a player took and it isn't the question posted in the OP.

    2. I don't know why the OP even bothers with these estimated 33 mpg and stuff when various sites have the actual info displayed in terms of a per game, per 36 minutes, and season total statistics, which can be easily applied to this nonsensical quest of estimating leftover shots for the PF.

    Anyhow, I have little hope that the OP will actually see what he did wrong, but hopefully a few less people get misled by this crap.
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    From a mathematical and statistical standpoint I completely disagree. But we are just going to have to agree to disagree. I actually have extended

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=244488

    to handle basic stats. It just is not published yet.
     
  8. bmd

    bmd Member

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    You can't just use the numbers from last year when a lot of them were on different teams and this year's team will be a completely different circumstance.
     
  9. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    post regretted
     
    #89 jtr, Oct 7, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2013
  10. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    From a data analysis and statistical view that is absolutely not true. If you want I can give you the specifics.
     
  11. rockets_big

    rockets_big Member

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    You just don't have enough impulse control to prevent yourself from trolling, do you? :rolleyes:
     
  12. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Yes, I'd like if you could provide specifics.
     
  13. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    What are you talking about? Seriously do you have the chops to even engage me in a conversation on this subject? That "post regretted" was in response to a man with 2 orders of magnitude more posts than you. Would you please not TROLL me? Jeez. Go away.
     
  14. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    OK. Do you have an understanding of terms like STDEV, P-Value, sigma and a solid background in statistics? If you do not I can present the data in an understandable format I think.
     
  15. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    You have not replied to me and I certainly did not mean to scare you off. I am going to start working on the problem assuming that I cannot just throw some esoteric stat to you. My aim is to educate, and you seem brighter than most.
     
  16. bmd

    bmd Member

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    You don't need to get technical to explain how you can use last year's numbers to predict the number of shots the starting PF would take this year.

    We don't even know how this team will play this year. With the addition of Howard, the half-court offense will be entirely different. This effects everybody's touches and everybody's number shot attempts.

    Then you have guys coming in from other teams. The teams they were on last year had entirely different offenses from the Rockets, and those players were most likely used differently than McHale will use them on the Rockets.

    And one last point... even if LMA would get less touches with the starters, who said he always has to play with the starters? A coach can stagger player's minutes in all kinds of ways so that he always remains one of the main scoring options most of the time.
     
  17. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I have taken statistics, calculus, etc. in college, but not any advanced classes.

    And yes I am familiar with standard deviation, p-value, etc.
     
  18. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Excellent! I have a math degree and a CS degree, but I do not profess to be overly accomplished at the "black art" of statistics. I have a flight to catch tomorrow morning so I probably will not be giving you an answer tonight. I have to have my beauty sleep before I see my daughter. LOL
     
  19. rockets_big

    rockets_big Member

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    There's no point in trying to reason with him. OP is total keyboard jockey nonsense. Armchair general managing at it's absolute worst.

    Morey will acquire a top tier 4 giving the rockets the best possible chance to win a championship.

    Goofs like jtr think a stiff like tyler hansborough or mark madsen are the key to a championship. It's such an idiotic premise. Unfortunately, the OP is bumping this thread 3 or 4X with each reply to keep it on page one.
     
  20. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    I advised you earnestly about this haughty tone. . . .

    OK, end of thread: your 33 minutes figure is "arbitrary" (your word and mine). So your calculations lead you to an arbitrary conclusion.

    No arithmetical knowledge is necessary to understand this.
     

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