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Johnny Manziel Watch

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by gatsby, Oct 6, 2013.

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J.R. Member

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Is Johnny Manziel a first-round draft pick?

By now, it’s a foregone conclusion that Johnny Manziel will declare in January for the 2014 NFL draft.

Manziel has already indicated, rather bluntly, that he is ready to leave College Station, Texas, behind. And even Texas A&M people who like Manziel a lot, in their most honest moments, would admit having some degree of Johnny Football Fatigue Syndrome.

When he goes, where will he go? Is Manziel a first-rounder? That’s the question I have set out to answer, by polling a smattering of scouts, draft experts and coaches.

As far as our own experts, Manziel is not yet on Mel Kiper’s Big Board of the top 25 overall prospects. He has risen to No. 28 for counterpart Todd McShay, although McShay still sees him as a second-rounder. Both note, though, that Manziel is on the way up.

Can he crack the first 32 picks come April? Here’s a look at five key factors that will determine whether Johnny Football is first-round material.

1. Football is not an issue

There were some questions about Manziel’s throwing ability following his freshman season, but his improved arm strength and patience in the pocket have been noted by scouts. Both are reasons why McShay has continued to move Manziel up his board.

I talked earlier in the week with his position coach, Jake Spavital -- who previously worked with Brandon Weeden at Oklahoma State and Geno Smith at West Virginia -- and he said the difference in Manziel’s approach and mechanics has been very apparent this season.

I asked Spavital about the pass down the sideline to Mike Evans early in the Alabama game, where Manziel fit a pass into a tight window versus the zone, splitting the safety and corner with very little margin for error. The throw had to be crisp and very, very accurate. It was, and it was one of many first-down passes to Evans against the Tide.

Spavital remembered the throw and said Manziel’s ability to stare down the safety -- to freeze him and create that small window -- was what made the play possible. He said it’s something that Manziel wasn’t doing a year ago.

Spavital also noted the final touchdown, a corner route from the right hash to the back left corner of the end zone. “That’s a big-time throw,” he said.

Manziel’s mobility, quite obviously, is not an issue. It’s what propelled him to the Heisman a year ago, the knack for making an uncanny play to will the Aggies to a first down -- or a touchdown.

When Manziel continued to make those sorts of plays the second time he faced Alabama -- after off-field issues and with all the attention on that game -- it was a head-turning moment for many, including NFL personnel.

“He can turn any play into the sand lot,” a veteran draft evaluator told me. “And there just aren’t many guys that can do that.”

Size at the QB position is not the issue that it once was. Playmaking ability -- as well as the NFL trend of dual-threat quarterbacks -- offsets the fact that Manziel lacks prototype NFL QB height. However, Manziel is a solid 6 feet, 210 pounds; he’s not Doug Flutie.

In general, there is not great concern about Manziel’s ability at this point.

“The guy won a Heisman Trophy as a freshman in the SEC,” one SEC assistant coach told me. “That’s pretty strong.”

Talent is down the list. That said, Manziel’s pro day will still be must-see TV.

2. Manziel isn’t the only first-round QB option

If Manziel had been in the 2013 draft class, the one that featured just one first-round QB (EJ Manuel), he would have had a much better shot of going early.

It isn’t impossible in the coming cycle, but the 2014 quarterback class is as strong -- deeper, really -- than any in recent memory. The 2012 group was more top-heavy, but there will be so many choices in 2014.

Where to begin: Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater, Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, UCLA’s Brett Hundley and Baylor’s Bryce Petty are all names on the rise.

And those are just the top underclassmen. Then there are seniors such as Clemson’s Tajh Boyd, Alabama’s AJ McCarron, Georgia’s Aaron Murray, Fresno State's Derek Carr and San Jose State's David Fales.

So how many will go in the top 32?

“Not everyone is going to need a quarterback,” one analyst said. “So what will those 6-8 teams considering one be looking for? And does Johnny fit that for one or more of them?”

3. Marketability is a factor

What could separate Manziel from some of the names above is his ability to draw crowds and spike TV ratings. He is an attraction, in and of himself.

“It’s a business, and that’s part of it,” one scout said. “It’s not all of it, but it’s part of it. He has to play, too. [Tim] Tebow proved that.”

Everyone I talked to rejected the idea that Manziel would be some sort of gimmick -- a la Tebow -- calling back to the first point about his football acumen being fairly sound for a 20-year-old who’s still a work in progress. They didn’t think the pick would be regarded the same way Tebow’s was when Denver selected him.

“He isn’t John Elway, but the kid can play ball,” one scout said. “We have seen that by now.”

4. Texas A&M could play a big role

Every NFL team will have questions for both A&M’s coaching staff and school officials about Manziel’s behavior, on and off the field. That would be true even if he hadn't been a regular in the news cycle during the past offseason, but it becomes especially true because of his off-field headlines.

One scout said there are typically canned answers for teams that aren’t perceived to have a genuine interest, but coaching staffs and administrators respect the professional process to the point that they wouldn’t demonstrate bias in front of teams that are truly considering Manziel. If there’s something to share, they’ll share it.

“Everyone wants a good reputation when it comes to the NFL,” said one scout, which also was echoed by another coach I spoke with.

The handful of teams thinking of committing time and resources -- lots of resources -- to Manziel will mostly receive straight answers.

In the end, teams will want to know what sort of person Manziel really is and whether he is a liability for the millions of dollars he would receive and/or as a potential franchise quarterback in the NFL.

All indications I’ve ever heard about Manziel say that despite his busy social calendar, he works his tail off when he is in the football building. Even with all that news floating around during the summer months, the coaches and players have always found Manziel to be a good teammate and, further, a good person.

But there will be plenty of questions for people beyond Spavital, Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies’ coaching staff. What about the administrators who were thrown under the bus by Manziel’s father in the ESPN The Magazine story from July? It’s hard to say whether everyone will be 100 percent part of “Team Johnny” when it comes time for those conversations. So that’s why scouts say the background process will play a pivotal role in determining Manziel’s stock. As trivial as it might seem, his academic record becomes as important to NFL teams as anything else. They want to know who they’re getting, and everything about him.

The same thing happened last year, resulting in the perceived No. 1 QB’s slip to the second day of the draft.

“Geno [Smith] started to fall when teams asked more and more of those questions,” one evaluator said.

5. Some NFL team will likely fall in love with him

Back to that central query: Will Johnny Manziel be a first-rounder in 2014?

In the end, it just takes one team to fall for Manziel. From all indications, the ability is there -- and it is improving. The instincts are off the charts. The charisma is present, when harnessed. He has the earmarks of the total package -- maybe. Which is why it’s still a question at this point and not a statement.

Some were careful with their wording, but most everyone I spoke with thought Manziel would ultimately land in the first round -- if not early in the second.

“If [Christian] Ponder and [Jake] Locker and [Blaine] Gabbert and on and on could go early,” one scout said, “there’s room for a guy like Manziel.”
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One other I wanted to share but can't find it now.

#21 J.R., Oct 6, 2013

Harrisment Member

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Bridgewater is a stud, but won't last long.

#22 Harrisment, Oct 6, 2013
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Chiefs go from a 2-14 team to 5-0...Colts did the same thing last season...All we need is a QB and a new coach...we have all the other positions..

#23 Pete Chilcutt, Oct 6, 2013
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rsx_htown said: ↑

Move up? We are 2-3. This wont be a playoff team. Johnny football isnt going in the first 15 picks.
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You reach a point of no return, where each loss moves you closer to getting a higher first round pick.

#24 Raven, Oct 6, 2013
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Pete Chilcutt said: ↑

Chiefs go from a 2-14 team to 5-0...Colts did the same thing last season...All we need is a QB and a new coach...we have all the other positions..
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Agreed. Both Kubiak and Schaub must be excreted from the team, the sooner the better.

#25 Raven, Oct 6, 2013
Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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Harrisment said: ↑

Bridgewater is a stud, but won't last long.
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Bridgewater will be the #1 pick unless somehow Pittsburgh or NYG get the #1 pick, in which case it'll be Clowney.

#26 Ziggy, Oct 6, 2013
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Pete Chilcutt said: ↑

Chiefs go from a 2-14 team to 5-0...
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nah man, alex smith is a lateral move AT BEST...

#27 josephnicks, Oct 6, 2013

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josephnicks said: ↑

nah man, alex smith is a lateral move AT BEST...
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Still..they have Andy Reid vs Kubes..

We have so many great players at different positions it's just baffling that we are wasting their prime on two guys that clearly cannot get it done anymore.

#28 Pete Chilcutt, Oct 6, 2013
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Gotta get manziel some how

#29 rhino17, Oct 6, 2013
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Harrisment said: ↑

Bridgewater is a stud, but won't last long.
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you mean we have no chance in hell at getting him

#30 SkyrimOwnsAll, Oct 6, 2013
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Y'all always bring up that Cousins pipe dream. But when the offseason comes... it might make sense. I'd prefer him over Murray. Not sure about Hundley or Carr yet.

#31 Ziggy, Oct 6, 2013
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Why all the man love for Murray? He's like the 10th best QB prospect.

#32 rezdawg, Oct 6, 2013
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Tahj Boyd would be nice too.

#33 Pete Chilcutt, Oct 6, 2013

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rezdawg said: ↑

Why all the man love for Murray? He's like the 10th best QB prospect.
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i know right, even Stephen Morris of Miami is rated higher than him

#34 SkyrimOwnsAll, Oct 6, 2013
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Would love Tahj Boyd next year.

#35 Xcellerator, Oct 6, 2013
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josephnicks said: ↑

nah man, alex smith is a lateral move AT BEST...
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Says you.

#36 cardpire, Oct 6, 2013
REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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Any chances he brings Sumlin with him

#37 REEKO_HTOWN, Oct 6, 2013
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REEKO_HTOWN said: ↑

Any chances he brings Sumlin with him
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EPIC Manziel Keenum Sumlin lol

#38 Pete Chilcutt, Oct 6, 2013

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Who we'll likely draft.

#39 percicles, Oct 6, 2013
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If we want Manziel, he'll definitely be available with our first pick in the 1st round. There might be better prospects available though.

#40 rezdawg, Oct 6, 2013

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