http://dimemag.com/2013/09/sneak-peek-nba-2k14-lebron-path-greatness-mode/ Off topic but in the Path to greatness with Lebron we play Miami in the finals
The first 2 scenarios are POSSIBLE, a lot has to go right, but POSSIBLE. The scenarios after that become more and more ridiculous. For example: how in the hell could the Lakers have Kobe, Pau, Love, Melo all on 1 team with the salary cap rules.
March 2012 MIT Sports Analytics Conference - the conference which Daryl Morey leads - presented a Robert Ayers paper that broke down what combinations of top players on a team’s roster had the biggest impact on a team’s winning percentage. --Notice, this is a 2012 paper. "Using statistical profiles, he classified players into categories such as high-scoring, dynamic guards; high-scoring, high-rebounding centers; versatile, 3-point shooting wings, etc. He then looked at the effect different two- and three-player combinations of those categories had on a team’s wins." He found the most effective two player combination to be a versatile, 3-point shooting wing and high-scoring, high-rebounding center. Essentially Harden and Howard. Harden is even mentioned in the below ESPN article about the paper. http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/38016/you-me-synergy-the-big-2-and-the-big-3 http://www.sloansportsconference.co...rt-Ayer-Sloan-Sports-Analytics-Conference.pdf
For those interested, the best three-player combination includes the Harden-Howard combination plus a high scoring, high assist, high steals, high turnover point guard, who doesn't shoot 3s. Yes, it says "high turnover".
Thanks for posting the research article. I found it a real interesting read. I interpreted the results a little different. The versatile wing is more the sf position than the guard position. The article even states in the conclusion it's best to build around a star SF. So if you're playing harden at the 3 in small ball than that might work but I'd imagine the article assumes a sf with a post game too (versatile). Harden fits cluster 2 more than he does cluster 8 who the author uses Paul pierce and Danny ainge as examples. Looks like the highest big 3 combo win coefficient was the 7-8-12 cluster combination (high scoring point guard + versatile high scoring wing + high scoring rebounding center). So if harden fills more the point guard position duties + parsons can take a big step as the versatile wing + d12 = best win total combination according to this research @ +13.6 regression coefficient. The data also suggests the 2-2-7 combo is one of the worst which would essentially be a backcourt heavy team of a high scoring/assist point guard and a couple high scoring guards. This might indicate a combo of Lin + Harden isn't the most ideal use of cap space. So basically invest heavy into your point or combo guard + small forward + and center. Again thanks for the read....
Glad you enjoyed the article. Thanks for your post. I agree about the wing cluster (cluster 8) being ambiguous about position but seeming to lean towards SFs. The ESPN article includes Harden in cluster 8, but its other examples for this cluster are LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Luol Deng. I don't have a strong opinion as to whether Harden is cluster 2 or cluster 8. I just find the idea of "fit" very interesting. For those who might not have time to read the article, clusters 2 and 8 are described as follows: Cluster-2: High scoring, dynamic guards (mostly 2 guards, but some 3’s like Grant Hill), typically not great 3 point shooters, or if they are, don’t shoot very many: Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Tracy McGrady, Adrian Dantley. Cluster-8: Multi-faceted, high scoring wings, with high assists for their position and are great 3 point shooters: Paul Pierce, Danny Ainge
Just to round this out, clusters 7 and 12 are described like this: Cluster-7: High scoring, high assist, high steals, high turnover point guards, who don’t shoot 3s: Kevin Johnson, Isaiah Thomas Cluster 12: High scoring post players, high rebounds, high blocks: Shaquille O’Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson
After thinking about it, now I am leaning a little towards your analysis. Anyway, it is all just food for thought. And mainly, just another reason to celebrate Dwight joining the Rockets.
Even though it's a little late, I made this 'Hitler' vid about Dwight leaving LA and coming to Houston. It's family-friendly so enjoy http://captiongenerator.com/7177/Hitler-reacts-to-Dwight-Howard-leaving-LA
Been a while since I read that. A PF that is good at rebounding and defense is the second best fit with Howard and Harden. Sounds like Thomas Robinson (besides the part about him being a top three player on a team).
The versatile wing could be a center in theory. It is more on the box score type results of how a player plays than on his position designation. Lebron James is now a "PF" under the 5 position designation system, but he is still a versatile wing under this rubric.
Yeah technically if a center could hit the 3 at a high enough clip and enough volume to play on the perimeter too. Versatile means ability to play/defend a range of positions in my interpretation which lebron is able to of course. I wouldn't play harden at the 4 but chandler yes.
To give a little more information about the 2012 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics paper for those who haven’t read it. The analysis showed that there were seven combinations of Big 3’s that exhibit a statistically significant impact on wins. Four of these had a significant positive impact on wins; three had a significantly negative impact. Of the ones with a significantly negative impact, none had a player like Dwight Howard as one of the Big 3s, so I am putting those to the side. That leaves the combinations of Big 3’s that had a significantly positive impact on wins. They are: Combination 7-8-12 (regression coefficient: +13.6) Cluster 7: high scoring, high assist, high steals point guard : Cluster 8: multi-faceted high scoring, high assist, good 3 PT shooting wing : Cluster 12: high scoring, high rebounding post player Combination 8-10-12 (regression coefficient: +5.43) Cluster 8: multi-faceted high scoring, high assist, good 3 PT shooting wing : Cluster 10: Limited 4’s; very strong rebounders, defense oriented: Dennis Rodman, Ben Wallace, Buck Williamsan : Cluster 12: high scoring, high rebounding post player Combination 2-5-8 (regression coefficient: +3.43) Combination 2-2-5 (regression coefficient: +3.70) Notice that the top two combinations have a better regression coefficient than the others by a significant margin, the first ranked combination in particular stands out. The two best combinations are also the only combinations with a player like Dwight Howard (cluster 12). Players that fall in cluster 8 and 12 are very rare: Howard definitely falls in 12, and Harden could fall in 8.
Do you think it’s possible that Asik could play the cluster 10 role, even though he’s a center? (Cluster 10: Limited 4’s; very strong rebounders, defense oriented: Dennis Rodman, Ben Wallace, Buck Williamsan) He’s such a defensive beast. I hadn’t held out much hope for the Harden-Howard-Asik combination, but now I am wondering.
Yet Bogut's current team was willing to meet with Dwight and make a pitch trying to convince Dwight how they'd be champion caliber with him and how efficient they would be with him and the shooters on offense.
