How will we improve next yeay?

Fire Larry Smith

 

1) get a better coaching staff. Considering Rudy's physical condition, we should look for a head coach. Rudy can be the assistent coach if his health permits.
2) get rid of Cat, EG, Moochi, Rice, Posey, Norris, get some quality Forwards, and get a real PG, move SF to 2.

 

Our major improvement next year should come from a better offense which involves more passing. Even if we kept everything exactly the same from this year to next, we would be a much better team if our offense wasn't such a laughing stock.

Even when we get the ball to Yao, it ends up being a pure 1 on 1 play with Yao trying to back his man down and score by himself. There isn't much movement away from the ball, although I sometimes see Griffin cut to the basket, but the pass to Griffin from Yao is almost always never made. How come we barely utilize Yao's passing? Why don't we see more of a Sabonis role, where he is in the high post and makes precise passes to cutters and spot up shooters. The only time I see Yao in the high post, he does not even look for his shot and simply does a handoff to Mobley or Francis. When Sabonis is left open, he'll make you pay and make you respect his outside jumper; Yao's shot is arguably better than Sabonis's shot, yet he only takes the jumper when he is absolutely forced to.

I'm not a big advocate of "give yao the ball all the time" b/c we will never reach our potential unless we blend our inside and outside and frankly Yao isn't good enough to merit getting the ball all the time as well. What upsets me is that when we DO get it to Yao, our offense becomes even more stagnant. Only when Yao is very hot and unstoppable does our offensive game-plan come into effect b/c then the defense is forced to double team Yao, and he kicks it out for an open three. But guess what? That is the same boring old offense we used back in the Hakeem day... Yes it can be effective, but only in a few years when Yao begins to truly dominate, but even then I don't want to watch the old "DIT" offense reincarnated with Yao. Yao offers so much more as a ROOKIE in terms of passing than Hakeem did after many years in the league, yet the only thing we can come up with is the DIT offense?

I WILL say that our offense did seem to be making strides before Rudy T had to leave, but even those strides were not very major, but some improvement is better than no improvement or even regression as we are perhaps seeing now. The problem with this team is that its performance remains a function of how well we are shooting our 3 pters - we win when we are hot, which is why we are tough to beat whenever Rice or even Posey are on target, and when we are off, we lose.

 

Also, I wanted to add that giving Yao the ball to go 1 on 1 in the post is no different from giving Francis or Mobley an iso. We complain so much about 1 on 1 play by our 2 guards because it relegates everyone else on the team to a stand-around and watch role, but the same thing happens when Yao gets the ball. The percentage shot that Yao gets might be higher than Francis or Mobley, but the overall effect is the same - the rest of the team simply STANDS AROUND and watches and does not become involved in the game.

 

I agree with you. I would love to see more cutting and movement without the ball when Yao has the ball.
Yao likes to pass and he will pass if there is someone in a better position to score. That way we can utilize him the best.

 

I don't think you comprehend how difficult your question is to answer!

First, the objective of any form of improvement is to identify weaknesses and take steps to correct them. The analysis of these weaknesses further breaks down into coaching/management and personnel. There are diverse and diametrically opposed opinions regarding each. I will call one opinion the "status quo" while I refer to the other as "reactionary".

The coaching/management aspect is currently clouded by the awful uncertainty of Rudy T's health. The "status quo" group will mention Rudy's many years as a Rocket, his championships and his reputation as a "players coach". The "reactionary" opinion will contain (among other things) the lack of an offensive scheme which is able to produce ball and player movement, is unable to get the ball consistently into the low post and has a subpar assistant coaching staff based upon Rudy's desire to "control" things.

So, will there be "improvement"? It is too early to tell. It can not be determined if Rudy will be able to carry on and if not how much loyalty owner Les Alexander has to RT's staff. My personal opionion is that Rudy will return, Les will be loyal, and the "status quo" group will get their wish.

However, it is also my opinion that a large portion of the offensive stagnation lies at the feet of the current coaching staff. Prior to the drafting of Yao Ming, Rockets management and coaching was building a perimeter oriented team when their plans where blasted sideways by a less than expected level of productivity from Glen Rice, the institution of the NBA zone and the unexpected Lottery "gift" of a legitmate low post center. The management/coaching has failed to adapt IMO.

The diverse opinions regarding personnel range from the "status quo" of everything is alright, it's a very young team and all that is needed is time (experience) to the "reactionary" position - that only Francis and Yao are untradable and every other player should be considered in a trade to improve the team.

The centerpiece of any trade this summer will be Glen Rice whose contract expires at the end of the 2003-04 season. It is expected that the Rockets will try to improve the team by packaging (with Rice) some combination of Griffin, Cato, Mobley or Taylor.

My personal opinion is that the Rockets current personnel has some severe flaws in it. For example, Francis and Mobley both have redundant skill sets. The better Yao gets, the less value having these identical sets of skills has value. You will also find many posters stating that overall the Rockets as a team have a low basketball IQ. This is another flaw which needs to be addressed.

Currently, the Rox struggle on offense, defense and transition. Is it the ISO system that is stressed by the current coaching? Or is the fact that the current personnel are incapable of learning finer aspects of the game like pick and roll, weakside screens, filling lanes on fastbreaks, defensive rotations, funneling opponents to a shot blocker, transition D, etc.

IMHO, the aforementioned problems are 65% coaching and 35% player related.

So what kind of offensive and defensive "improvements" will the 2003-04 version of the Rockets make? The first two indications of what will happen during the season will be 1) when the coaching situation is resolved and 2) will Glen Rice be moved, with whom and for whom?

Personally, I am hoping that if there is a coaching change, it occurs prior to early July when players can start signing contracts and/or be traded. If there is no coaching change, I don't look for much to happen on the trading front. That's just me and probably not a majority opinion.

Also, remember that in order to get a player who can contribute to the 2003-04 Rockets for Rice's expiring contract, the Rox will have to take on a "bad" contract as well. A quick (possibly not realistic) example would be to send Rice, Mobley and Griffin and possibly a pick to Miami for Caron Butler and Eddie Jones (who has a large and lengthy contract).

I do realize that your original inquiry was "what kind of offensive improvement" or "what kind of defensive improvement", but these questions are nearly impossible to answer without considerations made for coaching and personnel.

 

The number one problem is the direction of the team. Are we going to develop arround our 3 Guard play or are we goin to be a Center oriented team with tradition role play by the Guards? When you know the direction then you see if you have the right players for this direction, if not you have Carrol Dawson etc. get the best available trades or signings.Many think that Elton Brand and/or Lamar Odom might help strengthen the obvious week areas of the Rox. Then you ensure that the precise Coaching is available. Next you get everyone into the Houston Area and get them working out with each other. Then comes Training Camp. Then the new Arena. Then the season begins!
If we keep Griffin and Cato they MUST stay and work out here in Houston during the offseason, I suggest they be put under Moses Malone. When Yao Ming is free to return, he also should join the group. No self respecting team would keep Moochie,Hawkins and Collier on their Roster!

 

we need more post like this. oops..I just posted a meanless one.

 

Next "yeay" we need to make some adjustments with our roster. We need to get someone in the lineup at the 2 (or 1, and move Steve to the 2) who can run/push a fastbreak. To be the 2nd youngest team in the league, we sure are slow on our breaks.

 

Re-build the team, and get a new coaching staff. I think we have some of the worst role players in the leauge.

 

we won't improve next year...

 

Rebuild the team around YM.
Trade EG while he still has value.
Bring in a veteran PF who can play some hard D.
Bring in a point guard, and move SF to the two.
New Coach

Raven

 

Amen Raven.
Though I still haven't given up on EG.Hope he will improve over the summer.
One other thing I would like is somehow keep our pick in the draft...




ALA

 

Everybody makes mistakes. Bird made mistakes. Wilt made mistakes. Dream made mistakes. BUT, when our guards make the SAME MISTAKES game after game, year after year, MY WORD PEOPLE, some folks on this board are as dense as they are. Young, inexperienced, developing? I don't think so! Have any of you considered the possibility that Francis, Mobley, and Norris CAN"T, WON'T, and AREN"T going to change. It is time to change them. Francis to SG, Mobley to another team, and Norris to the CBA. BREAK UP THE THREE STOOGES!

 

ive got 3 roster moves that i think will help us next year. let me get everyone opinion on them:

1. trade glen rice and collier to miami for brian grant and ken johnson.

we need a physical defender, and big-time rebounder next to yao. moT and griff just arent cutting it. we get abused just as much by other teams PF's as the lakers do.

miami does this trade for cap reasons. rice will come off the cap at the end of next year. that will leave the heat with 9 mil to play with under the cap.

collier agrees to the sign and trade because no other team can give him a chance to be a back-up. he will have to beat out malik allan and vlad stepania for the job though

2. trade moT to milwaukee for toni kukoc

before i get flamed for this, and i know i will, the reason for this is because toni averaged about the same points a rebounds as mo this year (actually a little more), but he also averaged about 3 more asts per game. thats an area that we need help in more than anything else. kukoc can play point foward for us allowing steve and cat to both play off the ball. toni also has a shorter term contract. only 1 year left, so if we can re-sign him for a lot less at the end of the year.

the bucks do this for a couple of reasons. they need to make room for haislip, and desmond mason, and improve thier PF spot.


with these 2 trades our cap situation stays basically the same. essentially we are tradeing mo's 4 year contract for grants 4 year contract, and rices 1 year contract for kukoc's 1 year contract.

3. hire an assistant coach that can handle being a head coach
rudy's condition may cause him to miss more games in the future. we need to hire a former head coach that wouldnt mind being an assistant-head coach. jeff van-gundy, mike dunleavy, mike fratello, alvin gentry etc....

 

I think PJ Brown is available as a free agent. He's the great defensive players and a good rebounder. Even though he has a horrible shot, at least he hustles and know he's role.

 

dragon167 -
I didn't do a good job in my prior post of bringing it out but - the ISO offense is the Rockets offense. This was by a pre-Yao design when the teams' two main offensive components were Francis and Mobley. That is why I mentioned the addition of Rice who was supposed to "kill" defenses if they doubled SF or CM when they drove to the basket. That is also why I mentioned the NBA zone which severely limits ISO or lack of ball and player movement. It is also why I mentioned the coaching staff not adapting...even when the Rockets get Yao the ball to Yao in the low post, he is also ISO'd with no weakside player movement.

IMHO, this is the Rockets offense.

I believe that at one point during the season, someone transcribed a portion of a radio show which Rudy used to give on a weekly basis. In that post, Rudy is quoted as saying something like "the Rockets run less ISO than most of the teams in the NBA". If I am remembering this quote accurately, then clearly no one in the Rockets management thinks that there is anyting majorly wrong with the current offensive structure.

That is why I also went off on the tangent of whether Rudy will return or not. IMHO, either the coaching staff does not feel there is a problem or if they do they are ineffective in the implemetation of a system with more ball and player movement. From the aspect of an ineffective implementation, perhaps they are incapable of teaching it to a very young team or perhaps the Rockets players lack the BBall IQ to make good decisions (learn). Most likely, it is a combination of the 2 (my 65%-35% comment).

Now if you want my specific recommendations for improvement:

1) Regardless of who is the head coach, make a decision very early on whether Steve Francis (offensively) is going to be the most effective dominating the ball or working off the ball.

I don't subscribe to the majority opinion here of "move Francis to the 2". This is an arbitrary title change that means absolutely nothing until you define Francis's role within the offense. If Francis is still dominating the ball and initiating the offense, then calling him a 2guard is purely a naming convention.

Now, the question becomes...if you make Francis a more traditional 2, can he be effective coming off of weakside or baseline screens or will he setup the offense by dribbling? This is an important consideration which must be made very early IMO. Does Francis have to have the ball in his hands to be effective? That largely determines the personnel attributes of the other guard and also the SF.

2) Closely related to #1 - the Rockets have to find a way to initiate whatever offense they use (Rudy ISO or other) before the shot clock gets to 12 seconds. If you watch the games closely, the Rockets almost never get the ball inside the 3pt arc until around 15 seconds on the shot clock. No offense can be effective when it continously starts with 12 seconds remaining.

3) Once the decison has been made on Francis's offensive function, decide on Mobley's - 6th man, trade bait, or whatever. IMHO, Francis and Mobley have redundant skills sets that don't add to each others game. My main objection to playing them both is that Cuttino is a streak shooter and streak shooters need shots. Cuttino too often takes a "heat check" shot which destroys offensive flow. Plus, neither of them is an exceptional passer (adequate at best).

4) Run the offense thru the low post. Yao and Taylor are both good passers. Get the ball in there quickly.

With Rice's expiring contract, package any of the following - Griffin, Mobley, Cato, Moochie or Taylor to accomplish as much of the following as possible:

*) A defensive minded vet PF.
*) A near All Star caliber SF
*) Re-sign Posey, move him to the 2 (ala Doug Christie).
*) Add a reasonably deadly 3pt who has some ability to drive and is not totally worthless on defense (ala Eric Piatkowski).

If there are future picks involved or if a MLE FA signing means going slightly over the Luxury Tax to accomplish these, just do it!

Last, I love Juaquin Hawkins. But there is no reason he should be in the rotation unless there are significant injuries. It's OK to have him on the team, you gotta love his effort an his D...but if he is getting signifcant time, we are not a deep enough team.

I hope this was more of what you desired for an answer!

 

All I know is the team has to do something. I'm just afraid that nothing will get done. There's too much loyalty in this organization. And now, firing a coach with cancer? I don't see it.

With Rudy gone, what semblance we had of team play (*cough cough* couldn't swallow that one) has disintegrated, and now it's everyone for himself, trying to save the team.

Ideas?

Someone mentioned on David Aldridge's chat that we should move Steve to the 2, and what does he think? Aldridge said that he's OK with Steve at the 1, but if the Rox get another guard, somebody like Alvin Williams would be ideal.

No sh!zn!t, Sherlock. The Raptors wanted Cat at one point. If the Raptors could draft Kirk Hinrich and trade Alvin for Cat,....?

We need a guard with handles and passing, we need to solidify the forward spots. Most of all, we need some mental toughness, and I don't think this current team will get all that much better. Even if they do, so what? We're still 9th best in this conference, with Golden State, Seattle, Denver, and Memphis all improving fast. It won't get any easier. Les better dig down deep and find those brass balls, 'cause he's gonna need him if this team's gonna improve.