An outlook on the 2013-14 season through advanced stats

It's no big secret that teams are staying away from post ups. It's not a lost art or lack or talents. Coaches just don't teach them anymore. The truth is posting up is one of the least efficient way of scoring and most difficulty skill to develop. Spot ups, Cuts, and PnR's are the other side of efficiency spectrum and skills can be easily developed.

MDA knew this, and if you add that Dwight had a high post up TO% (about 18% I believe), he discouraged Dwight posting up down low. If you compare his efficiency in PnR efficiency (1.20) to post up efficiency (0.75), MDA would be too stupid to run Dwight too many post ups.

The truth is, it doesn't matter what side he posts up, Dwight just isn't good at it.

I am not saying we should completely discourage Dwight posting up. To have better chances of winning, we just have to limit the number of his post ups and mix them in plays.

I hope Dwight understands this and if he complaints about lack of post plays (which I don't believe he will), we might be in for a long season.

 

Perhaps you could try reading rather than responding with the same thing?

He scores at a bit over 1 ppp on the left block (even unhealthy and with no spacing from no 3 pt shooters he was around 0.9 on the left), and scores at around 0.6 ppp on the right, yet the Lakers had him posting up on the right more than on the left. Run properly (heavy left side bias) and healthy (like in Orlando), he gives about 0.93ppp, which is about what Duncan will give you.

He was simply not put in a position to succeed in that offense, between his health concerns, pick and rolls only ending in passes from their oft injured secondary ball handler and post ups being run heavily on his bad side. I doubt it was even about the volume but the quality, he was put in a position to fail in that offense (so was Gasol by having him out at 15 feet+).

 

I don't think you can measure the benefits of posting up based strictly on its raw efficiency. Post-ups results in great offensive rebounding opportunities, but minimize the chance of transition opportunities by the opposing team, there's less of a chance of turning the ball over when a good post-up player is working down low, the best passing lanes are created when getting doubled as a post-up player, and it's a great way to manage the clock.

 

Not worth the money, but mildly interesting.BTW synergy includes the post season with the regular seasons stats. Most stat. people don't. Make up your own mind if one should.PPP can be misleading depending what you consider a posession.

 

Even if the +/- stats are regularized one need to have a very large sample. According to the NBA geek less than two years is almost meaningless. Ideally one should have five years.
Beverly played two few minutes for his stats. to approximate his ability accurately. Stats deal with probability and underlying probability is the law of large numbers. The larger your sample the more it approximates the true distribution (Parameter). A statistic is a number taken from a sample in order to estimate the actual Parameter which ,ofcourse, can never be known,unless you sample the entire population. Be cautious.

 

I like it for the video feature. The stats you don't pay for, and for the most part need to be taken with a grain of salt. Defense isn't very quantifiable and stats like PPP don't account for the final result of each play type, only when that player gets fouled, turns it over, or shoots the ball.

 

This was your original quote:

Now you are saying MDA posted him more on the right side than left? MDA wanted to run more PnR's but Dwight preferred post ups. Yet in reality, Dwight had 4 times more post ups(649) than PnR's(164).

Look, I love Dwight as a Rocket. I think he will have a monster of a season for us. But you can't really blame MDA for not wanting to run more post ups with Dwight. If anything, it was Kobe who was running their offensive system and set him up for failure by directing the offense to the right side (Kobe's favorite side) for Dwight post ups. I believe Dwight was defiance of Kobe for not wanting to run more PnR's.

Even when healthy, his post up efficiency was still below Rockets team efficiency. Everyone knows how awesome he is as a roll man on PnR. All I am saying is this should be our main focus of our offense and not post ups. Stockton and Malone ran PnR's to death. Every team knew the PnR was coming when Malone started his screen around the top of the key but no one could consistantly stop the play. There is absolutely no reason we can't duplicate the success of Stockton/Malone duo with Harden/Dwight duo.

Dwight wasn't one of your 'good post up bigs' last year. Dwight had an 18% TO%, which directly translates into easy fastbreak points for the opposition. I have no doubt he will improve on his post up skills, but don't expect a huge improvement especially after 9 seasons in the league.

 

Coaches are teaching low post moves kuku. The thing is these yougstas these days want to shoot 3's and be ball handlers.
I agree Howard doesn't have a strong low post game.

 

great post