An outlook on the 2013-14 season through advanced stats

xRAPM sort by overall rating per 200 possessions

season 2012-2013 rockets



season 2012-2013 PG



season 2011-2012 PG

 

RAPM design to normalize the influence of other teammate on court, who are you playing with should not effect your rating statistically.

 

season 2012-2013 Center

 

RAPM is subject to player being in right system. It also takes into account prior season as starting point. Delfino went from -1.5 to a 0 in one season. I was referring to Synergy stats as being affected by Asik. Lin played 1147 possessions with same lineup as Beverley, with units with Beverley well out performing units with Lin defensively. Beverley's RAPM suffers for him being a rookie.

Lin's offensive RAPM dropped this season. Partly for playing out of his mind in NY and partly for system.

 

Super post, OP!!

Really nice post and analysis, OP!!

Statistics has to be qualified by observation. That said, I think the stats for Lin and Bev here seem to confirm our eyes pretty well. Although the stats show a slight edge by Lin on D and by Bev on O, for most practical purpose, they are within statistical error range, basically about the same. Incidentally, they are the same age as well (Lin younger by 1.5 months, haha).

On Howard, bear in mind that he played many years for a Van Gundy brother who "beat up" his players for not playing defense, so his defensive stats were most definitely exaggerated. Defense is a state of mind, and I am not even sure McHale has that in him. Defense must start from the top, and then it has to be pounded in, and pounded in some more. Lack of defense can almost always be blamed on coaching. In short, we can safely assume Howard stats this year will improve offensively, but will degrade defensively.

 

Thanks OP for great analysis!

This win contribution chart below was my way of distributing our 45 wins based on RAPM, Margin of Victory to Wins converter, and minute played. I believe Morey stated that Lin contributed the third most wins, which correlated with this chart. Since Beverley and Lin had about the same RAPM, if Bev played the same minutes as Lin, he wouldve had the same win contribution. The rule of thumb for a player's salary is $1M/win.
<PRE> MP XRAPM MP% Wins
Harden 2985 5.12 0.1517 15.85
O. Asik 2464 4.55 0.1252 12.13
J. Lin 2640 0.4 0.1341 5.43
Parsons 2758 -0.13 0.1401 4.69
Delfino 1689 0.03 0.0858 3.06
Beverley 713 0.43 0.0362 1.49
G Smith 1110 -0.87 0.0564 1.3
Douglas 913 -1.01 0.0464 1.02
P. Pat 1219 -1.62 0.0619 0.82
Anderson 307 -0.13 0.016 0.52
Garcia 319 -1.7 0.0162 0.19
Aldrich 213 -1.91 0.0108 0.12
T. Jones 276 -2.64 0.014 -0.01
Brooks 38 -4.74 0.0019 -0.07
Robinson 247 -3.39 0.0126 -0.13
cook 165 -5.03 0.0084 -0.28
Donatas 538 -3.67 0.0273 -0.4
Morris 1154 -3.52 0.0586 -0.73
Total Wins: 45</PRE>

 

http://bbs.hupu.com/5973116.html

I got these sorted Image from link above.

Original data：http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html

To make it sortable, select the whole table (except "player"), save it as .txt file. In Excel, File -- Import the .txt file.

 

Didn't most of Lin's plays come against opposing starters while most of Beverley's plays came against opposing backups?

 

how the hell does asik have more possesisons than CP3... something must be wrong

 

It's because Lin's offense gets hit hard from his 3 point shooting and TO's. If he improves on those he will clearly beat Bev.

By the same token, Lin appears to be a better defender because of his steals. In reality, you'd rather have a defender put ball pressure that takes time off the clock and results in a lower shooting percentage than the extra steal.

So the stats can not tell the full story. In reality, Lin is more offensively gifted where Bev is more defensively gifted. Although things can change...

 

xRAPM sort by overall rating per 200 possessions

SG/SF/PF

season 2012-2013 SG


season 2012-2013 SF


season 2012-2013 PF

 

Good post. Taking into consideration Lin's horrible start owing to injury and Bev coming in at the middle of the season without practice further shows us that the jury's still out. And of course statistics never tell the story though it does say a lot. Either way, we're looking good.

 

Uh, please don't ask such an obvious question. You will only annoy the OP and majority of this board when the real intention behind such posting is to prove Bev is just as good if not better than Lin. So, to answer your question, no, opponents do not matter to the player ratings here.

 

We read the whole post about the new season's outlook but we decided to have the same unLinteresting discussion as always.

Anyway, thanks OP.

 

Awesome work and thanks for the numbers.

 

Great read ane great post.

 

Dwight'as problem with post ups were mostly coach related.

He's good off the left block and terrible off the right, yet D'antoni ran him as much off the right as the left, probably mostly related to Kobe being the offense.

 

I will say Lin played a higher percentage of minutes against starters than Beverley, but I suspect Beverley played a lot of minutes against starters. This would definitely affect the synergy stats, too. I don't know if Beverley played more minutes against starters or against backups. I just find the stat discussion on Lin and Beverley weird in that the stats shown show the reverse of what I see which is Lin is the better offensive player and Beverley is the better defensive player. I think there is enough context to show the stats available to public for Lin and Beverley may not be the best measure for their abilities.

I do agree with most of the original post.

 

Since Lin is getting paid, 5, 5 and 15 would it be safe to say that the overpaid argument would safely end if his win share for the remainder of his contract increases? (hypothetically) And by increasing, I mean the average increase for example, this up coming season if he were to somehow up it to 8 or 9 and then the following season finish out at 11?