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[Statistics]Dwight good for 4 extra wins on just...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by kevC, Jul 10, 2013.

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  1. kevC

    kevC Member

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    ...being able to finish inside better thank Asik alone!

    Last year, Dwight shot 70.5% at the rim and 42.2% from 3 to 10 ft. (link)
    Omer shot 60.9% and 27.4% respectively. (link)

    Applying Dwight's percentages on Asik's attempts from those distances (517 and 117), gives us 67 more made baskets or 134 points.

    Using pythagorean wins, I calculated that for the Rockets last season, an extra 134 points translates to about 4 more wins.

    In conclusion, by literally replacing Omer Asik's missed inside shots with Dwight's efficiency, Rockets can get 4 more wins! This is without considering Dwight would actually get more of these high efficiency shots than Asik, which presumably would be positive compounding effect.

    Our offense is going to be UNBELIEVABLE.
     
    #1 kevC, Jul 10, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2013
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  2. Whoopy

    Whoopy Member

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    If it's only 4 wins then we overpaid.
     
    #2 Whoopy, Jul 10, 2013
  3. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

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    You have to track down every miss Asik made around the basket and look what happened next: ORB, DRB, putback, 2nd chance make/miss...changes the whole outcome of games.

    That metric doesn't really help in my opinion.
     
    #3 Yung-T, Jul 10, 2013
  4. kevC

    kevC Member

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    Did you read anything I wrote? This is based ONLY on the fact that he can finish better than Asik. This doesn't take into account the fact that he ability to draw fouls that would put teams in foul trouble, the fact that he will actually get more of these super efficient kind of shots because he moves and catches balls better than Asik, and the double teams he will draw that leads to more efficient shots for other players.
     
    #4 kevC, Jul 10, 2013
  5. kevC

    kevC Member

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    Yes, it's admittedly pretty rudimentary, but the fact that it's such a big difference makes me want to smile.
     
    #5 kevC, Jul 10, 2013
  6. Whoopy

    Whoopy Member

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    So if not 4 how many?
     
    #6 Whoopy, Jul 10, 2013
  7. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

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    There's no metric for that question, no one can properly calculate the impact of a player.
     
    #7 Yung-T, Jul 10, 2013
  8. Fyreball

    Fyreball Member

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    I'm sure Daryl Morey can answer that question for you.
     
    #8 Fyreball, Jul 10, 2013
  9. kevC

    kevC Member

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    More than 4.
     
    #9 kevC, Jul 10, 2013
  10. zaam

    zaam Member

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    True, but you would also get the same tracked data for every shot Howard missed. That is, given the supposed smaller size of the set due to Howard's greater efficiency.

    I'd say KevC's assumptions are at least interesting to consider, however incomplete they might be. I believe his point was made with a rather broad stroke.
     
    #10 zaam, Jul 10, 2013
  11. PainNoLove

    PainNoLove Member

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    That's just on one aspect of the game (finishing around the rim), if he's better defensively, that should add even more wins.
     
    #11 PainNoLove, Jul 10, 2013
  12. sleepyazn

    sleepyazn Member

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    Dwight is also a better defensive player then Asik. Also with Asik holding the defensive fort when Dwight is resting, that should translate to 10 extra wins easily for the Rockets.
     
    #12 sleepyazn, Jul 10, 2013
  13. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    not to mention 1+ year of experience for the youngest team in the NBA. 1+ year of experience between Harden, Parsons and Lin.
     
    #13 fchowd0311, Jul 10, 2013
  14. TheRealAllpro

    TheRealAllpro Morey only fan

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    I thought it was interesting when Morey said he expects this team, pre howard, I believe at the season ticket holders meeting, to be around 50 wins just from the teams development. Ive gotta believe Howard adds at least 8 to 10 wins on top of that.
     
    #14 TheRealAllpro, Jul 10, 2013
  15. kevC

    kevC Member

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    Well according to pythagorean wins, Rockets were a 50 win team last year. A lot of the 5 game under performance is luck and a lot of it I guess you could qualitatively say that they couldn't close games because of the lack of experience. The Rockets last year were also extremely lucky in how healthy they were (knock on wood). So given all that, yes, I think Daryl's 50 win project is about right pre-Howard.
     
    #15 kevC, Jul 10, 2013
  16. HollaIFyaHEMI

    HollaIFyaHEMI Member

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    Also, Those percentages don't even take into account the amount of passes Asik fumbled, or was fouled on and missed and easy layup. Dwight will be dunking most of those instead of trying to reverse it under the basket.
     
    #16 HollaIFyaHEMI, Jul 10, 2013
  17. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Means nothing lol
     
    #17 ThatBoyNick, Jul 10, 2013
  18. sleepyazn

    sleepyazn Member

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    Do not insult the Turkish Swan. He is too majestic for your heathen eyes to comprehend.
     
    #18 sleepyazn, Jul 10, 2013
  19. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    If that were true, Daryl Morey would be out of a job.
     
    #19 CXbby, Jul 10, 2013
  20. jtr

    jtr Member

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    The question of how many wins the Rockets added with Howard would yield a normal probability distribution for an answer. A graph of that sits somewhere on Morey's computer. If Morey projected 50 wins without Howard (sounds reasonable to me) the probability curve would probably peak in the 56 - 64 win range with Howard. Assuming good health of course.

    Just my opinion of course.
     
    #20 jtr, Jul 10, 2013
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