I'm thinking of going big on the under for game 4. It'll probably be 189 o/u. I can't see too many scenarios where it goes over unless the refs go into touch foul mode or if it goes overtime. Really, I see an ugly low game coming up. Gary Neal, Danny Green, and Mike Miller can't keep shooting 70% from the 3pt line. These two teams aren't stupid fouling machines either, so it's not going to be easy to get a FT line barrage going. Ok, I see it open at 188.5 at Vegasinsider and already getting bet below.
I don't know how to get access to that info. It may not be publicly available. Maybe somebody else can chime in.
going over tonight. bought half a point @186. close game tonight will make it go over. stone cold lock.
Basketball bettors were left stunned after the San Antonio Spurs buried the Miami Heat under a barrage of 3-pointers to win Game 3 of the NBA Finals Tuesday. After the teams traded blowout victories, sportsbooks are dealing their slimmest spread of the series for Game 4 Thursday, thanks in part to the health of Spurs PG Tony Parker. His status for Game 4 has forced some markets to flip-flop the spread with Miami now pegged as a road favorite. We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the betting action coming in and where the odds could end up by the 9 p.m. tipoff. Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs – Open: -2, Move: -2.5, Move: -1, Move: Pick, Move: +1 Some shops opened the Spurs as 2-point home favorites for Game 4 after blowing away the Heat Tuesday. And early action even forced those books to jump to -2.5. However, as news of Tony Parker’s tender hamstring spread, bettors began playing the underdog and have since moved the defending champs from +2.5 all the way to -1 (-115). “Early Wednesday morning we dropped the Spurs to -1 and that didn't slow down the Heat money,” says Stewart, who opened San Antonio as a 1.5-point home favorite. “With 75 percent of the action on the Heat at +1, we went to pick'em late Wednesday evening. Again, money kept pouring in on the Heat and very early this morning we went to Heat -1.” Stewart says about 70 percent of the action is now on Miami and expects that one-sided flood of money to move the spread to Heat -1.5 by tipoff. He points to the Heat’s ability to rebound from a loss, having not dropped back-to-back games since January and posting a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS record following a defeat this postseason. “And all their wins following a loss have been blowouts, crushing their opponents by an average of 21.6 points,” notes Stewart. “So all this money backing the Heat makes sense to us and is one of the reasons why we're being so aggressive moving our number.” As for the Game 4 total, the number opened as high as 188.5 at some books and took instant action on the under. Most markets are currently dealing between 187.5 and 187, taking balanced action at that over/under. “Unless a sharp betting group takes a position on this total, I don't suspect we'll move off 187.5 as we're booking great two-way action at that number,” says Stewart.
One of us will be pissed off tonight. I'm getting my celebration and angry-breaking-crap drinks ready.
Damn it. Getting hammered tonight. I told Kwame, the only way it's going over is either overtime or a free throw parade with overbearing refs. After 3 quarters, the 38 FTA are more than any other full game total in this series. FML. You screwed me again, Kwame, lol.
Nice call supermandan I didn't think it was going to go over either, but that line movement made me take that last minute Miami moneyline pick. I won't count it towards my post-season total in this thread since I didn't post the pick in advance, but Kim is my witness. I texted him my Miami ml pick before the game started.
Good game, should have known better. I switched my pick at the last minute thinking damn why is everyone else taking Miami (according to vegasinsider). Then i started doubting my future bet that miami would win the series. No more over thinking.
I'm with you. I tend to over-think my picks sometimes. I made a last minute pick today, but I think I'm just going to let my futures bet ride out and not make anymore picks. I might make one more pick, but I dunno.
Picked up 2k tonight: Wager(s) for Thu 06-13-2013 Result #707 - Heat win Game ML (-125) 2nd Half Header: Team to win the game Sport: NBA - Finals Label: NBA Finals - Best of Seven (2-3-2) Ticket #: 74442989 Accepted: 06/13/13 9:21 PM (CST) Scheduled : 06/13/13 8:05 PM (CST) Risk/Win: $1,250.00/$1,000.00 Outcome: Win Final Score: Heat win Game 109-93 over Spurs win Game $1,000.00 #707 - Miami Heat -1 (-108) Header: #1 Miami Heat @ #2 San Antonio Spurs - (Spurs lead 2-1) (ABC) Sport: NBA - Finals Label: NBA Finals - Best of Seven (2-3-2) Ticket #: 74437823 Accepted: 06/13/13 7:38 PM (CST) Scheduled : 06/13/13 8:05 PM (CST) Risk/Win: $1,080.00/$1,000.00 Outcome: Win Final Score: Miami Heat 109-93 over San Antonio Spurs $1,000.00 2 Total Wagers $2,000.00
Let's try and end this season on a positive note: Miami -5.5 for Game 7 (bough half a point for insurance). My futures bet is still alive as well. Win or lose, its been one hell of a ride this post-season...good luck to everybody.
