It is going to be tough over the final 20 games. I think it will take a 12-8 record to lock up # 8 over Phoenix But that will be hard enough- 1. Say we complete this home stand 2-1 2. We will have 17 games left 6 home 11 away 3. That means if we then finished the season 5-1 at home at that point we would have to win 5 of 11 on the road Here is the final 20 games not much room for error.. Best thing for us is to sweep the next 3 games. If we lose 2 of the next 3 then the #8 seed will take a miracle 12 Wed L.A. Clippers 14 Fri Chicago 16 Sun Phoenix 18 Tue @ Seattle 19 Wed @ Portland 21 Fri @ Golden State 23 Sun @ Sacramento 24 Mon @ L.A. Clippers 26 Wed L.A. Lakers 27 Thu @ San Antonio 29 Sat Denver 31 Mon @ New Jersey Apr 2 Wed @ Milwaukee 4 Fri @ Philadelphia 6 Sun Orlando 8 Tue Portland 9 Wed @ Utah 12 Sat Seattle 15 Tue Memphis 16 Wed @ Denver
What the Rockets need more than anything else is a win streak. After their longest this season, 4 (also their longest in more than 2 seasons), they effectively collapsed. They've won two in a row. Games against the Clippers and Bulls are as must win games as the one against Phoenix. That would give them a 5 game win streak. It could extend to 6 or 7, but they really have to win the next 3. When a loss comes after that, they need to put another win streak together. I think they have to have something like 14-6 as their goal, if not better. 12-8 might realistically get them there, but you never know, and they have to reach higher than that. For that matter, if both Phoenix and Utah keep faltering, there is still a shot at the 7th seed, and playing Sacramento would be sooo much better than going against Dallas in the first round.
To finish 14-6 would take some huge win streaks they certainly couldn't afford a loss in the next 3 games. Just looking at the way we have been playing we have 9 games left against not play off seeded teams- I think we have to win 6-7 of those 9
too many than they'll get... Here's the most suprising stat yet...Rockets are 4-4 on the road since the all star break...
45 wins should do it. That means going 13 for 20 out of the last twenty games. Seems improbable, but when you step back and look, it maybe more likely than you think.
Here's the Phoenix Schedule: 11 Tue @ Golden State 13 Thu Sacramento 16 Sun @ Houston 17 Mon Toronto 19 Wed Utah 21 Fri Washington 22 Sat @ Dallas 24 Mon Seattle 26 Wed @ Memphis 28 Fri @ Detroit 30 Sun @ Indiana Apr 1 Tue Denver 5 Sat Minnesota 6 Sun @ L.A. Lakers 8 Tue @ Denver 9 Wed Dallas 11 Fri Golden State 13 Sun San Antonio 15 Tue @ Portland 16 Wed @ Seattle Even though they have more home games, their schedule looks a little tougher. There is a good possibility (and a necessity for the Rockets) that both teams will be 34-30 on 3/16. If Houston wins to go one up and everything plays out like it should (assuming one game lost that should be a win and one game won that should be a loss), Rockets end up 1-2 games better.
Houston has two brutal road swings that might do them in in the end. However, Phoenix is a very fragile team IMO. They could finish 15-5, 10-10, or 5-15. This team has a very good record against the better teams in the West unlike Houston. Good luck
Both the Suns and the Rockets will finish 42-40 and we will get the #8 spot on tie-breaker because we win the series 3-1 (beating them on Sunday).
Those 3 mean 11-6. If the Rox can't finish with a flourish then just let Memphis get the Lotto Picko and let's just pack it in. The Rox could finish with a flourish and jump start next year's home seed for the play offs.
I have the Suns going 9 wins 11 losses over the next 20 games with the Rockets going 11-9. Suns win against: Golden State, Toronto, Washington, Seattle, Memphis, Detroit, Denver, Indiana, Denver Rockets win against: LA Clips, Chicago, Phoenix, Seattle, Golden State, LA Clipps, Denver, Philly, Seattle, Memphis and Denver This would be 2 games better than the Suns and would put the Rockets into the 8th spot by one game over Phoenix
The next 4 and the last 3 of the year are must win. I think we can knock those out. There are also 5 more games that we can win. Must Win Games: - All at home except Denver. I think 7-1 will be the outcome. The loss will NOT be against Phoenix though. I think they can go 8-0. I say 7-1. Mar 12 Wed L.A. Clippers Mar 14 Fri Chicago Mar 16 Sun Phoenix Mar 29 Sat Denver Apr 6 Sun Orlando Apr 12 Sat Seattle Apr 15 Tue Memphis Apr 16 Wed @ Denver Toss Up Games: - These will make/break the playoff run. The first three are from our 5 games in 7 night west coast swing coming up. I will be happy with 3-3 as long as we take care of home court vs LA and Portland. If Houston has a 5 game streak going into Seattle next Tuesday, then possibly they stretch it to 8 games until Sacramento. I say 4-2. Mar 18 Tue @ Seattle Mar 21 Fri @ Golden State Mar 24 Mon @ L.A. Clippers Mar 26 Wed L.A. Lakers (at HOME - must defend home court.) Apr 2 Wed @ Milwaukee Apr 8 Tue Portland Hard Games: - Out of these 6 road games, I would be happy with 2 wins. 3/4 wins is doable though, only SA and SAC are elite at home. The rest are vulnerable. I say 2-4. Mar 19 Wed @ Portland Mar 23 Sun @ Sacramento Mar 27 Thu @ San Antonio Mar 31 Mon @ New Jersey Apr 4 Fri @ Philadelphia Apr 9 Wed @ Utah So 13-7 to finish the year. Hopefully 45 wins gets us in this year. Phoenix will be lucky to go 10-10 with 2 games versus Dallas, 1 versus SA, and 1 vs the Lakers.
If the Rockets beat Phoenix on Sunday, I think a 44-38 record will be enough to get the 8th seed. Hell, if they can win 45 games, they might even have a shot at catching Utah depending on the tiebreakers.
so far this team is unpredictable more often than not. after all, good wishes are just good wishes. it wouldnt surprise me if they miss the play-off by a couple of games
For us to get in...We're going to need a miracle... Or the Suns, Jazz and Warriors all playing crappy and not winning the rest of the way... Oh yeah...The Rox actually have to play consistent basketball and win more than they lose...
