[Sports Talk 790] Daryl Morey Interviews

Your logic doesn't make sense. We have established that the Rockets don't ISO more than top teams (throwing out the obvious outlier). Of the plays that we DO iso, you're saying Harden is ISOing too much. Who then, do you think we should iso? Lin? Parsons? Omer? Whoever our PF is? They are all terrible 1 vs 1 players.

 

I appreciate the analysis, but this is set up to prove a point. Per possession numbers will dilute Harden's numbers (to prove your point) since they have the highest pace in the league

 

Using median numbers probably makes more sense, I see your point.

I just don't think Harden is a volume scorer, at least not in a traditional sense. He's not the same kind of player as TMac/Melo/Iverson who needs certain amount of shots to get his points, he rarely gets into this chucking happy mode.

Adjusted based on your numbers, Harden takes 6 less shots per game while averaging less than 2.3 points per game than Melo, not only that's super efficient, but he also gets his teammates involved but averaging nearly 6 a game, that's something truly special.

Bottom line is, Harden is more than just a scorer.

 

That's not true. Lin was one of the league's top15 ISO players in the league last year. People say small sample size but 25 starts is a lot of games

 

He is taking 6 less field goals but he is shooting almost as much as these other volume shooters when you count the shots that then lead to drawing fouls and FT's.
Also, with his 5+ assists, I don't know how anyone can disagree that Harden absolutely dominates the ball nearly every possession on offense.

It doesn't matter who his guard teammate would be, it's a Kobe/Derek-Fisher dynamic right now in the backcourt because of how ball dominant Harden is when he plays

 

No, I'm saying that our team ISO's should decrease over all.

The Spurs have low ISO play and they're one of the best offenses in the NBA.

That said, Harden is an excellent ISO player however he has a tendency to occasionally call for ISO's at inopportune times like when it's clear that the refs aren't going to give him calls, or when his shots are hitting, or when the rest of the offense is flowing very well.

You put the ball in his hands when the team offense isn't flowing well or when the clock is down to the wire, but otherwise he should let others do more on the offense and focus more on his defense.

In the long run I believe it will result in better offensive performance for him as he's picking his spots, more involvement in the offense by his team mates, and better team defense as he's expending less energy on offense.

Look at things this way... if the team is playing well offensively without Harden doing a single ISO, what purpose does it serve for Harden to take over the game? It's just an expenditure of energy on the offensive end with questionable net benefit.

Harden is the guy you want when you need the best, so save him for when you need him.

There's no reason Harden can't move the ball more quickly and more often especially when other players on the team are already playing well on the offensive end, especially if it hurts Harden on the defensive end.

 

Do you have an agenda or something against torocan?

There's nothing wrong with his logic, he presented meaningful stats about how many ISOs were used for each player. But he DID NOT give an opinion about whether Harden ISO'd too much, nor did he mention any other player should ISO ahead of Harden.

 

No, he takes 6 less shots AFTER adjusted for FTA.

 

Synergy's play charting is pretty much useless in determining how many isolations teams run.

A significant amount of possessions Synergy charts as isolations is just guys being opportunistic in non-iso settings.

Synergy will also chart possession as an isolation if a player is trying to to make an entry pass to the post and his defender backs off leading the offensive to take the open jumper.
If a there's penetration off a pick&roll leading to a guy beating his man off the dribble it's usually charted as an isolation, even though there's a direct correlation between the defense being out of ideal position due to the pick&roll. I assume a good portion of what gets charted as Rockets isolations is a result of this.

Also, if a team runs multiple pick&rolls that lead to a player having to take a bailout jumper with the clock ticking down Synergy will chart it as an ISO if the guy takes a couple of dribbles after receiving the ball. The play may have resulted in an isolation, but that's simply because everything prior broke down.
That's the only value Synergy's play charting may have: determining how many possessions of teams end up in isolation, though again, isolations are charted/defined very loosely with Synergy. Their charting in general is -- or at least used to be -- very inconsistent and IMO not reliable.

The Thunder for example go to A LOT more isolations by design than the Rockets. No way the difference between the two teams is only 3.5%.

 

Actually that is NOT what you were saying.

This is what you said.

You just said the team's ISO stats are "team wide isolation plays and not indicative".

Then you completely reverted to talking about the percentage of ISO plays a player uses and implying that Harden takes too many of them.

I have already suggested that the Rockets don't ISO more compared to the rest of the league. If they do ISO, Harden should be taking the majority of the ISOs, (obviously).

Now you change your argument and suggest that as a team , we should ISO less.

But the evidence shows
1. We don't ISO more than any other top team in the league

Yes, the spurs don't, but like I said they are an outlier. The other top teams that ISO as much if not more than the Rockets and are still successful.

 

Oh repped.

Does this apply on P&Rs and defensive stats as well?
So basically synergy isn't reliable? That's very useful to know. I won't be referring to synergy again and will take anyone referring to it with a grain of salt from now on.

 

Uh, pay attention.

Later in that post I said that Harden's ISO's should decline. Logically, that means Team ISO's should decline.

You asked if other players should take those ISO's, my belief is that they shouldn't. The distribution of shots should move towards more ball movement.

And if you *really* want to talk about successful, the correlation between team isolation and success is a tenuous one. Calling the Spurs an outlier when they've wont 4 championships in 10 years, and 50+ games every season from 14 years based upon a system of team basketball isn't a statistical outlier except that they're better run than most every other team in the NBA.

It's called a well organization that's running an excellent offensive system right now.

Using the average of what other teams do is meaningless. Average teams are average for a reason... it's because their talent and/or organizations/systems/coaching are average.

Using a statistic that fits the "average" doesn't mean that it's what the Rockest *should* be doing and more than believing that just because the average person has less than $2000 in savings doesn't mean it's a way to succeed financially.

If you want to be a championship team, you emulate other championship teams and what they do is far from "average".

In the end championship teams happen in only a few ways. You need the right combination of talent, coaching and systems. Being great in one aspect can compensate for another to some degree.

Since we're not going to get Lebron James any time soon, don't count on having the best Talent. That means you'll need good talent, but more importantly great Coaching and systems.

And as systems go, team ball is the best basketball.

 

This is only relevant if you're trying to chart an exact number of isolation plays.

However, if you're trying to gauge relative use of isolation plays then it remains useful as all teams are subject to the same metrics. There may be some plus or minus in the individual numbers, but not enough to completely discount the differentials.

I look at it like this. Let's say your watch is running fast. Then you won't know the exact time accurately, but you'll still be able to tell if it takes more or less time for your girlfriend to get out of bathroom in the morning.

So yes and no. Not reliable if you want to get an exact number, still useful as a relative gauge when comparing players and positions.

 

No Melo is a better defender than Harden. Irving is Amare Stoudemire of PG's on defense.

We shouldn't iso at all. I am not fond of isolation plays personal preference. Being a good isolation player is like saying you are the skinniest kid at fat camp.

 

I wouldn't say Synergy isn't reliable. You just have to understand what you're looking at.
The pick&roll charting/data for example is way more useful than the isolation stuff because it's better defined and thus leaving less room for interpretation.

I think some of Synergy's team stats are useful, but there's probably generally more value the Synergy player data, again simply because the way Synergy charts -- often charting what type of play the possession ends up as rather than what it starts out as.

Even if we ignore the charting inconsistencies, I think there's very little use in Synergy's isolation data in determining how many isolations teams run by design.
Durant gets isolated by design at least twice as much as Harden does. Possible as much as 3-4 times as much.
Rarely will another Rockets player besides Harden get isolated by design. Westbrook and Martin constantly are.

The isolations by design disparity between HOU & OKC is nowhere near 3.5%. It's way, way higher.

There may be some value to Synergy's isolation data, as it relates to possessions ending up in isolations, but again, as is, Synergy simply doesn't define isolations well enough. A guy pulling up for an open or jumper with his defender trying to take away the post-feed or a guy beating his man off the dribble with a simple jab-step as the defender closes out on him off the pick&roll rotation is totally different than a guy putting a move on his man in a 1-4 flat situation or basic iso situation from the elbow or wing. It's night and day.

 

So your problem isnt alot of ISO, its that harden is taking the ISO plays and not Lin? Sheesh

 

Iso plays are a part of basketball for a reason. They are used to exploit mismatches on defense and draw double teams. Not every iso play ends with the ball handler taking a contested shot.

 

I would add two exceptions:
1) clear mismatch that will lead to more efficient shot than a set
2) end of shot clock after play fell apart.

This is basically the way the Spurs play. Always running a play.