Feb. 27 | Editor's Note: ESPN.com's Mel Kiper Jr. offers his newest first-round projection for the NFL draft (to compare, check out his previous first-round projection). The draft takes place Saturday, April 26 (rounds 1-3) and Sunday, April 27 (rounds 4-7). With the NFL combine completed, I'm unveiling my second first-round projection for the 2003 NFL draft. My new projection has 12 underclassmen (*) in the first round (including two of the top four) as well as 12 defensive linemen (eight DTs and four DEs). Here's my updated forecast: 1. Cincinnati Bengals -- Carson Palmer, QB, USC With Troy Aikman/Drew Bledsoe-like potential, Palmer has continued to solidify the top spot. With Jon Kitna as the incumbent, the Bengals have no recourse -- they really need a quarterback. Unless they get bowled over by an unbelievable deal, they need top to take Palmer with the top pick. 2. Detroit Lions -- *Charles Rogers, WR, Michigan State The Lions need a big-time go-to target for franchise quarterback Joey Harrington, and Rogers fits the bill. At the combine he measured at 6-foot-2½, not the 6-4 I expected. But he's still a remarkable talent with Randy Moss-like potential. 3. Houston Texans -- Jordan Gross, OT, Utah The Texans desperately need a left tackle to protect the blind side of franchise quarterback David Carr. Carr was sacked an NFL-record 76 times this past season. If the Texans trade down, they could lose Gross, though they might be able to get Iowa OL Eric Steinbach, who could project to left tackle. But if they really want Gross, they should take him at No. 3. 4. Chicago Bears -- *Terrell Suggs, DE, Arizona State The Bears likely will look to acquire a veteran quarterback via free agency, so I expect their major draft needs to be a pass-rushing defensive end and a defensive tackle to free up MLB Brian Urlacher more. Centers and offensive guards were getting out to Urlacher too often in 2002. Suggs, who set the NCAA single-season sack record (24), could fill the pass-rushing need, but Penn State DT Jimmy Kennedy is another possibility for the Bears. 5. Dallas Cowboys -- Terence Newman, CB, Kansas State New Cowboys coach Bill Parcells loves cornerbacks and understands the need for shut-down corners in an era of four wide-receiver sets. Newman, who had a great combine workout, is a classic cover corner and excels in the return game, too. 6. Arizona Cardinals -- Jimmy Kennedy, DT, Penn State If the Bears pick Kennedy, the Cardinals could take DE Terrell Suggs here. But Arizona needs a defensive tackle to go alongside DT Wendell Bryant, their first-round pick last year. At 6-4¼ and 335 pounds, Kennedy is a huge presence. 7. Minnesota Vikings -- Marcus Trufant, CB, Washington State He had a great combine after an outstanding week at the Senior Bowl -- both of which followed a heck of a college career. Trufant is arguably right there with Terence Newman as the top cornerback in this draft. The Vikings might also look at a defensive tackle, such as Dewayne Robertson or Johnathan Sullivan. 8. Jacksonville Jaguars -- *Andre Johnson, WR, Miami-Fla. Since WR Keenan McCardell moved on, the Jaguars really haven't had a big-time receiver. Johnson is a speed-burner with size (6-2, 230), and he played in a pro-style offense with the Hurricanes. He would be a value pick at No. 8. 9. Carolina Panthers -- Byron Leftwich, QB, Marshall If Chicago passes on Leftwich, as I now expect, the Panthers should snap him up. They need a big-time young QB, because who knows how much incumbent veteran Rodney Peete has left in the tank. Leftwich and Carson Palmer are clearly the best pure passers in the draft -- and the best in years. 10. Baltimore Ravens -- Eric Steinbach, OL, Iowa Steinbach offers ability and versatility. He can play guard or tackle and would immediately be a starter for the Ravens at right tackle. The Ravens need help there and at both guard spots. Steinbach played for former Ravens assistant Kirk Ferentz, Iowa's current head coach. 11. Seattle Seahawks -- *Dewayne Robertson, DT, Kentucky A tough 315-pounder with excellent pass-rush ability, Robertson was a three-year starter at Kentucky. Seattle had all kinds of problems at defensive tackle this past season, so Robertson would be an immediate hole-filler. He's quick and puts pressure on the quarterback. 12. St. Louis Rams -- Taylor Jacobs, WR, Florida The Rams need a wide receiver because they never really filled the void left by the departed Az-Zahir Hakim. Jacobs is clearly the third-best wideout in this draft, and he was among the best players at the Senior Bowl practices. A polished receiver, he would be a major contributor as a rookie. 13. Washington Redskins -- *Johnathan Sullivan, DT, Georgia The 'Skins desperately need a defensive tackle. They might try to sign a free-agent DT, but the 300-pound Sullivan would fill the need nicely. He had 15½ tackles for loss in 2002 and posted a solid combine workout. 14. New England Patriots (from Buffalo) -- Kevin Williams, DT, Oklahoma State A 300-pounder who runs a 4.8 in the 40, Williams had an excellent combine and a great Senior Bowl week. The Patriots need a DT to complement DT Richard Seymour. The Pats acquired this pick in the Drew Bledsoe deal. 15. San Diego Chargers -- William Joseph, DT, Miami-Fla. San Diego needs a DT to stuff the run and provide a pass-rush threat from the inside. In 2002, Joseph didn't play up to the level of his junior year, or he probably would have been a top-five pick. He could be a good value pick here. 16. Kansas City Chiefs -- Chris Kelsay, DE, Nebraska When Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil was with the Rams, he had Nebraska DE Grant Wistrom. Kelsay has a similar non-stop motor. He had a strong combine, running a 4.73 in the 40 at 6-4¼ and 273 pounds. He also did 23 bench-press repetitions (at 225 pounds) and posted a 36½-inch vertical leap. 17. New Orleans Saints -- Dennis Weathersby, CB, Oregon State Weathersby has moved ahead of Oklahoma CB Andre Woolfolk on my draft board (I had the Saints picking Woolfolk in my initial first-round projection). He had an inconsistent senior year after a standout junior campaign. But he has good size (6-1, 205) and great speed (4.3 range in the 40) plus a 37-inch vertical leap. 18. New Orleans Saints (from Miami) -- *Jason Witten, TE, Tennessee Witten has good size (6-5½, 264) and will be an ideal target in the intermediate passing game for QB Aaron Brooks. A strong athlete, he sometimes lined up at wide receiver for the Vols. Witten also has great strength, and he's an excellent blocker. The Saints acquired this pick in the Ricky Williams deal. 19. New England Patriots -- Boss Bailey, OLB, Georgia The Patriots need more big plays on defense -- they need a difference-maker at linebacker. Bailey is an unbelievable natural athlete, with a 42-inch vertical leap at 6-3 and 233 pounds. With safety-type speed and athleticism, he would upgrade New England's linebacker corps. 20. Denver Broncos -- Jerome McDougle, DE, Miami-Fla. A gifted athlete, McDougle is one of the best rushing ends available in this draft. He had an excellent Senior Bowl week and a great combine workout. For his size (6-2, 264), he ran an exceptional 40-yard dash (4.65), displaying great closing speed off the edge. He posted a 34-inch vertical leap. Offensive tackle is also a need area for Denver. 21. Cleveland Browns -- *Kwame Harris, OT, Stanford Had Harris stayed in school, he might have been a top-five pick in the 2004 draft, so he's a value pick here. He didn't play up to the level of his talent this past year, but he has great size (6-7, 310) and runs the 40 in the 5.2 range. If he can sustain a high intensity level, he could become a Pro Bowl tackle. 22. New York Jets -- Ty Warren, DT, Texas A&M Warren is one of the many defensive tackles I expect to go in the first round of this draft. At 6-4½ and 307 pounds, he has outstanding weight-room strength and explosive up-field speed. He would be a great addition to the Jets' DT rotation. 23. Atlanta Falcons -- *Kelley Washington, WR, Tennessee The Falcons need to upgrade their wide-receiver corps to complement QB Michael Vick. Washington didn't run at the combine and had injury problems in 2002. But if he checks out medically and runs well in his individual workouts, he would be a great pick here. He has good size (6-2½, 225) and displayed exceptional ability on the collegiate level. 24. Indianapolis Colts -- *Rien Long, DT, Washington State Long was a little stiff in the combine drills, but you can't question his on-field performance in the Pac-10 this past season. He had 13 sacks on his way to the Outland Trophy. Colts coach Tony Dungy wants to continue to bolster his defense. 25. New York Giants -- Kenny Peterson, DT, Ohio State This is an area of concern for the Giants, who struggled on the D-line late in the season after Keith Hamilton was injured. Peterson had an outstanding season and an excellent week at the Senior Bowl. He's versatile enough to play guard or tackle. 26. San Francisco 49ers -- *Dewayne White, DE, Louisville In 2001, he was one of the the nation's best defensive players, but his performance suffered in '02 because of an ankle injury. When he was at full strength, he was a force off the edge. The Niners need a pass-rush threat opposite DE Andre Carter. 27. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Mike Doss, S, Ohio State Pittsburgh's secondary was torched in '02 by opposing quarterbacks. Doss is a team leader who's always in the right place at the right time. He's a tough, productive and instinctive performer. 28. Tennessee Titans -- George Foster, OT, Georgia Foster probably would have been a top-15 pick if he hadn't missed some time early this past season after sustaining a wrist injury in an August car accident. A tough, fiery competitor, Foster could push for a starting job at guard or tackle early in his NFL career. 29. Green Bay Packers -- *Rex Grossman, QB, Florida Grossman would be a great value pick here, making him the heir apparent to Brett Favre. He has a great arm plus confidence and other intangibles. He played behind a sub-par offensive line this past season at Florida and had little help at the receiver position besides Taylor Jacobs. 30. Philadelphia Eagles -- E.J. Henderson, LB, Maryland Henderson would be an immediate factor, especially upgrading the run defense. The Eagles lost Jeremiah Trotter to free agency prior to the 2002 season, and Henderson would be an ideal middle linebacker. 31. Oakland Raiders -- *Wayne Hunter, OT, Hawaii Had Hunter returned to Hawaii for his senior year, he could have been a top-10 pick in the 2004 draft. Gifted athletically at 6-5½ and 303 pounds, Hunter did 37 bench-press reps (at 225 pounds) and ran a 5.15 in the 40 while posting a 31-inch vertical leap. He excelled in Hawaii's run-and-shoot offense. 32. Oakland Raiders (from Tampa Bay) -- Kyle Boller, QB, Cal The Raiders have backup QB Marques Tuiasosopo, but is he the heir apparent to veteran Rich Gannon? Tuiasosopo was drafted by the departed Jon Gruden, and some thought he was a reach in the second round anyway. Boller had an excellent senior year and a good combine, though I debated whether to go with Louisville QB Dave Ragone here. Ragone also had a strong combine and Senior Bowl week. But I'll go with Boller in a close call. Stay tuned.
Damn, rezdawg, you beat me to it... My problems with this list: 1) We're NOT taking Gross at #3. If he's "the guy," we'll trade down and grab him at a lower spot. Our #3 overall pick is a hot commodity, and Casserly is getting some trade offers for it. Picking Gross #3 is akin to the Bungles grabbing Levi Jones last year at a high spot. It's all about getting value for the pick, and Gross is a major reach at #3. 2) I don't think Jason Witten will go that high to the Saints. He may be one of the top TE prospects, but he ain't Jeremy Shockey. 3) Is Kelley Washington healthy? Last I heard, his football career was in jeopardy. The dude has big-time talent, but it's super risky to draft a hurt player in the first round (unless you're Byron Leftwich), especially given the salaries first-rounders command. This risk could easily blow up in the Falcons' face. 4) Rex Grossman picked before rising star Kyle Boller, who ran a 4.6 in the 40??? Kiper is on the crackpipe. 5) Kyle Boller to the Raiders? Hello? I saw Marques Tuiasosopo play at the NFL Rookie Shoot, and he looked pretty good. I think the Raiders have other pressing problems right now besides finding a future QB. 6) Kevin Williams at #14 might be a little bit of a reach. As is Mike Doss at #27. 7) Where is Michael Haynes? And who the heck is Wayne Hunter?
3) Yes K Washington passed all physicals at the combine. He should go in thee top 15 picks. 6) K Williams would not be a reach at #14. He really put on a show at the combine and the senior bowl. Agree Doss's stock has really fallen. 7) Haynes is projected as a secound rounder by most experts. W Hunter is a tackle out of Hawia. He really impressed the scouts at the combine with his size and strength. I think he did 37 reps of 225. Could very easily be the third tackle taken behind Gross and Haynes. Does that fix your problems.
Most of the mocks I've seen have M Haynes going in the 1st round..... the highest I've seen him going is at No 6 to the Cards.
Yeah, The Raiders draft a positon where they are the deepest and a QB they won't need for 2 more years.
As time passes, I think trading down 3 to 6 picks for an additional 2nd rounder (or best deal) makes the most sense. Many of these guys aren't worth a 3rd pick, but fit nicely slightly lower. Given that the 2 QBs go in the first 8 picks, the Texans would do just fine with any of the remaining guys: Rogers or Johnson would be a great fit at WR Gross would start from day one at LT Suggs - just turn him loose Newman or Trufant at CB across from Glenn would be awesome - move Coleman to safety Kennedy - a big plug in the middle which you need for the 3-4 but may be the questionable pick based on our needs. The added pick could have Mcgahee written all over it and I keep him on the sidelines for all of next year to fully recover despite what he thinks. Also, I was looking at the combine results for OL based on how Mel has the first round going(yes, I was bored). Let me preface that I realize combine stats alone mean crap on the field (Tony M), but I noticed one name that I don't see mentioned anywhere but had very good stats. Does anyone know about Scott Kooistra out of NCST? He must have been hurt at some point to not be ranked very high, but he must be healthy to put up those numbers. Below are the combine workout results for the first 7 OTs and OGs to be selected: Player School Ht. Wt. Bench 40 VJ BJ 20sh 60sh Cone Mel's Foster, George Georgia 6-5 3/8 338 DNP DNP 27" 8'4" DNP DNP DNP 4 Gross, Jordan Utah 6-4 ½ 300 28 5.03 31 ½" 9'4" 4.34 DNP 7.69 1 Harris, Kwame Stanford 6 7 310 DNP 5.2 35 ½" 8'11" 4.58 DNP 7.97 3 Hunter, Wayne Hawaii 6-5 5/8 303 37 5.12 31" 8'8" 4.54 DNP 7.72 5 Kooistra, Scott North Carolina State 6-5 7/8 316 28 4.9 33 ½" 9'3" 4.4 DNP 7.51 Pahos, Tony Illinois 6 6 337 38 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 2nd rnd Williams, Brett Florida State 6 5 321 DNP 5.25 27 ½" 8'3" 4.99 DNP 8.55 2nd rnd Player School Ht. Wt. Bench 40 VJ BJ 20sh 60sh Cone Manuwai, Vince Hawaii 6 2 304 27 5.19 29 ½" 8'11" 4.37 DNP 7.57 2nd rnd Steinbach, Eric Iowa 6-6 ¼ 297 DNP 4.94 36" 9'11" 4.37 DNP 7.34 2 This may be a guy to consider late day 1 or early day 2.
give me ric's opinion over these guys any day... remember last year when all the analysts could talk about on draft day was the hitch in carr's throw? how he came down and thew sidearm all the time? how the texans were gonna try to change that and what a problem that would be? yeah...some problem. thanks for wasting 30 minutes of my life talking about it. and now another 2 minutes recounting it!
you just listed the top six non-QB prospects in this draft -- if none of them are worthy of the third pick, who is?! how does gross jump ahead of, at the very least, pitts, who has a year of playing LT in the NFL under his belt? is he a QB, because when i start assessing the texans' needs, i see one at every position not manned by david carr. man, oh man -- i admit, mgahee's appealing, but i sure as h-e-double hockey sticks hope the texans don't waste a first-day pick on him -- not worth it, imo.
so after watching carr absorb 31,267 hits last year, you think the prudent course would be to move pitts to a new position and then start a rookie in his place, creating, essentially, an all-rookie left side of the line...?
Trade the pick to move down, try to get another 2nd round pick, and still get which ever of these guys fall out seems to be more valuable than just using the 3rd pick on one of these guys. There's 70+ reasons to upgrade the OL. We've upgraded one tackle already. If Gross is the one that falls out at 8 or 9, then he would be an upgrade to Pitts who was drafted as a project behind TB.
the texans need to take advantage of their draft status and stockpile talent while they can. why put your fate in the hands of another team? if there's a difference maker available when it's your turn to pick, grab him, i say. i think people make too much about "value" and all this other nonsense when it comes to drafting, like it's a science. if the guy can play and would impact your team -- what good does it do you to hesitate? is an extra 2nd round pick really worth the risk of the player you want being off the board, especially when you have 14 picks already? which tackle did we upgrade -- wiegert over young? that's debateable. and gross might -- might -- be an upgrade long-term, but he wouldn't be as a rookie. everyone rags pitts, and he did struggle, but he played well under the circumstances and will be a year better this year. remember -- pitts has as much expereince playing guard in the NFL as gross does tackle. you'd be looking at another learning process along your left side and another long year for carr.
If you are going to spend a number 3 pick on an offensive lineman, you better be pretty freakin certain the kid can play immediately. If Gross is taken at the 3, you better believe that the Texans believe he can play LT right away. There is no point in spending such a high pick on an OL if the guy isnt a stud as soon as he steps on the field. That is why I feel like the Texans need to bypass Gross and go in a different direction with this pick. Just for clarification purposes, it was 31,314 hits.
