Baseball is ALL about pitching. I know every prospect doesn't pan out, but in my opinion the 'Stros have done a flat out HORRIBLE job of developing (and drafting) pitching. Went back to '90 and here's a list of pitchers that the 'Stros drafted that were touted as the organizations top pitching prospects that never really amounted to anything special (or had any productivity that lasted for over say 3 yrs): Jason Hirsh Jeff Juden Chris Gardner Brian Williams John Hudek Donnie Wall Chris Holt Manuel Barrios Scott Elarton John Halama Wade Miller (looked promising and than fizzled out) Tim Redding (never amounted to anything with the 'Stros) Carlos Hernandez (looked promising like Miller than got hurt sliding into 2nd) Kirk Saarloos Fernando Nieve Chris Sampson Matt Albers Troy Patton Brian Bogusevic Felipe Paulino Derrick Grigsby Chris Reineke B. James J. Guetierrez J. Barthmaier Guys that are still young that haven't really amounted to anything: Jordan Lyles Dallas Keuchel Ross Seaton First rd picks (pitchers) since '90: '91 John Burke '94 Elarton '95 T. McKnight '96 M. Johnson '98 Lidge '02 Grigsby '05 Bogusevic '10 Foltynewicz Pitchers that did pan out: Kile Roy O S. Reynolds Billy Wagner (converted to closer) Lidge (closer) Qualls (bullpen) Wandy Norris (has been so so) In my opinion their development of starting pitching since '90 has been flat out pathetic. In twenty-two yrs they had ONE starting pitcher that you'd consider elite (Roy O). I know the organization has now changed hands, but it will be interesting to see how many of these so called pitching prospects amount to anything (and with the 'Stros). Luhnow has brought in numerous pitching prospects from other organizations through trades, and I know the jury is still out on all of these kids. That said, I wonder how many of these kids will be major league pitchers in 3-4 yrs? I guess only time will tell. Just frustrating to see SO many 'Stros pitching prospects get hyped up and only to fizzle out once they reach the majors (or they never make it to the show at all). I may have forgotten a few as this was mainly off the top of my head (although I did look at their draft history (1st rd picks) since '90).
I would be interested to compare this with a different organization. I've always considered the majority of pitching prospects fizzling out as one of the simple truths of baseball. That list is eye-popping though.
FWIW, Halama had a decent career (9 seasons for a 23rd round pick). I'd list Wade Miller as a success, even if his arm derailed his career. Just imagine if Miller & Hernandez never get hurt, and we have Pettitte/Clemens/Oswalt/Miller/Hernandez as our rotation... Sure beats Pete Munro starting a playoff game.
Reading through that list my ire flared up briefly when I skimmed past Redding's name. I don't know why, but more than any other Astros pitcher his inconsistency would irritate me. He was always touted as a guy whose stuff was good enough to be a good-great pitcher, but somehow he would pull the Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde thing on a regular basis and I never really could decide what to think of the guy. Wasn't Johan Santana in our organization at one time? Did we draft him? I know they are still at fault for letting him go unprotected in favor of Hidalgo but at the least they should get credit for bringing him into the organization at one time.
I'd consider Kile to have been an elite pitcher... certainly got paid as one, and performed as one with the exception of Colorado. If Elarton wasn't overused by Dierker in a relief role in 1998-1999, he very well could have been an elite level starter. By the time he was actually made a starter, his arm was pretty much strung out. You forgot to include Wagner as one of the first round picks since the 90's (1993). In the end, its not that the Astros are incapable of developing pitching from prospects... its that their first round picks have not had the impact warranted from their draft position (even though Elarton, Wagner and Lidge all made big contributions at the MLB level).
Yeah, you're right. Bobby Abreu was left unprotected in favor of Hidalgo for the expansion draft and we lost Santana in the Rule V draft in 1999...can't seem to find if there was anybody they made sure was protected in favor of him, though.
As others pointed out, you're missing Santana and Garcia. I'd consider both of them elite (Santana with multiple CY Youngs and Garcia with over 150 wins and 30+ WAR). Both of them spent most if not all of their minor league development time with Houston. How would a Santana-Oswalt-Clemens-Pettitte-Garcia rotation have looked in 04-05? I'd also argue Wade Miller had a successful--if not long--career. During his two-year peak in 01-02 he was a 5 bWAR-front of the rotation pitcher. He was only really healthy for 4-4.5 years, but he still managed to put up a decent career value (14 bWAR). Considering he was a 20th round draft pick, I'd say they got pretty good value out of him. He also produced almost all his value during his pre-arb years, so his cost relative to production was very low. If you were to guarantee that someone like Folty or McCullers would have his career, I'd take it in a heartbeat. Considering that all three names I mentioned above (plus Oswalt, Wagner, Lidge, Kile, Reynolds etc) were acquired pre-99, your complaint really focuses around the 1999-present time frame. That the Astros failed to draft and develop prospects during this time frame isn't anything new and it certainly isn't confined to pitchers. How many elite catchers have we produced since 99? How many outfielders? infielders? It's not a secret that the Astros current woes stem from problems in their farm system during the last decade. The 2007 draft was the flashpoint, but the rot started creeping in as far back as 1999. Losing their foothold in Venezuela along with a decade of bad drafting was the cause. They didn't become a 100 loss franchise overnight.
I didn't forget Santana or Garcia. Was focusing on prospects that wound up pitching for the 'Stros. Santana nor Garcia ever pitched one gm for this organization. In fact, if you want to mention Santana, what does that say about our organization that we let him go? We didn't trade him, we didn't protect him because obviously he didn't make that big of an impression on our decisions makers at that point. If he did they would have protected him. Garcia was involved in a trade so I certainly understand that. Wade Miller. He had three productive seasons ('01, '02 & '03). In '04 he was 7-7 with a 3.35 era but he only pitched 88 innings for the entire yr. Thus he was ok but not anything special. Kile had three yrs in a 'Stros uni where he won over 10 gms: '93 15-8 '96 12-11 '97 19-7 (and he bolted after the yr to the Rockies) Lidge and Wagner wound up in the bullpen. I wasn't just pointing out how pathetic it's been since '90, but I was also bringing up how we haven't developed starting pitchers that would at least be considered in the top third in the league. Starters not relief pitchers. Roy O and Kile (for one season--'97) would really fit this description. So yes my complaint goes all the way back to '90. Would be curious to see how they did in the '80s but I'm not taking the time to investigate.
Two big starting pitchers of the 90's were Mike Hampton and Jose Lima. Neither were drafted by the Astros... but both had their first full time starting gigs with the club. Hampton did spend some time in the Astros farm "developing", thus you could say he was as much a home-grown player as Cosart would be now. Part of developing the farm system does come in the form of trades... especially when you're trading established vets to "restock". Very rarely do the best systems in baseball get developed entirely through the draft.
Harnisch and Portugal too if we are going that far back. Reynolds was drafted in 89, but came up in the 90s and was a good pitcher (career 16.1 bWAR and 34 fWAR). The Astros farm system was very good during the late 80s and 90s. During that time they acquired and developed guys like Kile, Reynolds, Wagner, Lidge, Santana, Garcia, Miller, and Oswalt (not mentioning young pitchers like Harnsich, Portugal, and Hampton that they acquired via trade). Even Wandy was originally signed in the 90s. You'd be hard pressed to find many organizations during that time period with a better track record of drafting/intl signing and developing pitching.
You could look at a large majority of major league organizations and come up with a very similar story. Pitching prospects are a very high risk group. Look at the 2006 first round . . .Kershaw went 7th, Lincecum 10th, Scherzer 11th . . .but ahead of all of those guys was Hochever, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller . .and immediately following Scherzer was Kasey Kiker, Jeremy Jeffress, Kyle Drabek, Brett Sinkbeil Look at 2007, the draft that produced Price and Bumgarner . .that first round also included pitchers Dan Moskos, Casey Weathers, Joe Savery, Chris Withrow, Tim Anderson, Nick Schmidt, Michael Main, Aaron Poreda, James Simmons, Andrew Brackman . . . And that is just two first rounds, you could do that for every single year and see that a small percentage of pitchers, even first round pitchers, pan out. I would guess that the Astros would be middle of the pack, or a little above middle, in good solid starters that came through their system. Just gotta hope that a few of the current prospects make it
If I'm not mistaken, Seattle traded Hampton to the 'Stros after the '93 season. He spent the '94 season as a reliever for the 'Stros. So no he didn't spend time in our farm system developing.
That we had a stacked organization, and didn't think it necessary to protect someone in A ball who had just posted a 4.66 ERA?
"Stacked organization"? You NEVER have enough pitching. I am not faulting them for not protecting him as he hadn't really developed yet. However that being said, we can't claim that we developed him as another poster was saying. The Twins organization is where he blossomed.
