1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

ESPN Insider: Revisiting Lin vs. Felton decision

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by tzou88, Feb 27, 2013.

Tags:
  1. tzou88

    tzou88 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2009
    Messages:
    1,572
    Likes Received:
    220
  2. zdrav

    zdrav Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2012
    Messages:
    1,536
    Likes Received:
    79
  3. morpheus133

    morpheus133 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2003
    Messages:
    2,535
    Likes Received:
    183
    Found this on the knicks forum: http://www.knicksonline.com/forums/showthread.php?13629-ESPN-Insider-Lin-vs-Felton

    From the standpoint of the New York Knicks, hoping to justify their decision to let Jeremy Lin leave in free agency and replace him at point guard with Raymond Felton, this season couldn't have started any better. Felton was excellent during the month of November as the Knicks got off to a surprising start, while Lin struggled to find his place next to James Harden with the Houston Rockets.
    Some three months later, it's worth revisiting the Lin decision. Felton's success, like his team's, has proved fleeting. Meanwhile, the Rockets and Lin are one of the league's hottest teams.

    Misleading month

    You remember November, right? President Barack Obama had just been re-elected, Manti Te'o was merely a linebacker in contention for the Heisman, and the Knicks were one of the NBA's best teams. Behind a flurry of 3-pointers and a smaller lineup with Carmello Anthony at power forward, New York started the season 14-4. The Knicks capped that stretch with their second win over the Heat and marked themselves as serious contenders in the Eastern Conference.



    New York's backcourt of Felton and fellow newcomer Jason Kidd played a major role in the fast start. Felton made 40 percent of his 3s in November while averaging 14.6 points and 6.7 assists. Kidd was even better beyond the arc at nearly 49 percent. As a team, the Knicks shot 41.6 percent from 3-point range, powering the league's best offensive rating in the month.
    Everyone said the shooting couldn't last, and it didn't. Since Dec. 1, New York has shot exactly the league average (35.8 percent) on 3-pointers. Felton, at 31.4 percent, has been even worse. The Knicks are still a very good offensive team, ranking sixth in points per possession from December onward, but not the juggernaut they once were.

    By The Numbers

    <table border="1">
    <tr>
    <th>Stat</th>
    <th>NY ORating</th>
    <th>HOU ORating</th>
    <th>Felton WARP</th>
    <th>Felton WARP</th>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td>November</td>
    <td>110.8 (1) </td>
    <td>102.8 (10) </td>
    <td>1.1 </td>
    <td>0.3</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td>Since</td>
    <td>107.3 (6)</td>
    <td>108.2 (4)td>
    <td>0.2</td>
    <td>2.0</td>
    </tr>
    </table>

    At the same time, as the chart shows, the Rockets were making the opposite transformation, with Lin as one of the leaders. As Houston has figured out how to utilize both Harden and Lin, the Rockets' offense has gone from solidly above average in November to elite. Lin's own statistics, as measured by [Only registered and activated users can see links. ], have seen a similar boost.

    Knicks finding their level

    The Knicks, it turns out, are who we thought they were. Since peaking at 14-4, they have consistently played at about a 45-win pace -- [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]. Project that out through the rest of the schedule and New York figures to finish somewhere around 49 wins, which should be good for third in the East.

    Fears that the crosstown rival Nets will come back to win the Atlantic Division are probably overstated. While the Nets have climbed within two games in the standings, their point differential is barely better than .500, suggesting they're likely to regress somewhat the rest of the way. The same is true of the Hawks, who sit fifth, leaving only the Bulls with a healthy Rose as a serious threat to the Knicks' top-three seed.

    Felton, it turns out, is also who we thought he was -- not quite as bad as he looked during his disastrous 2011-12 campaign in Portland, but not as good as he played during his first half-season in New York or the opening month this season. As much as Felton's playmaking and his ability to generate steals have helped the Knicks, he has had a tough time scoring efficiently since the 3s stopped falling. Felton is making just 42.4 percent of his 2-point attempts and has seen his true shooting percentage slip to 47.5 percent -- far worse than the league average of 53.2 percent.

    Moving beyond Linsanity

    For both the Knicks and Lin himself, Linsanity has become a distant memory. Gone are the headlines, the screaming fans and the incredible numbers Lin posted as the Knicks' go-to player last February. Instead of getting Linsanity, the Rockets ended up with Jeremy Lin, developing point guard.
    Playing next to Harden, Lin isn't the focal point of the Houston offense the way he was during the stretch that made him a household name. However, he has defied critics by showing the ability to thrive in that smaller role. In part, that's because of [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]. It also reflects Lin's 3-point shooting regressing to the mean. After shooting 26.3 percent from downtown in November, Lin is at 34.4 percent since, making him something of a threat when opponents leave him open.
    The funny thing is Lin's 2012-13 stat line is relatively similar in many ways to what he did last year in New York. His effective field goal percentage, for example, is an identical .478. The difference in Lin's offense is entirely a matter of volume. He's down from using 28.1 percent of the Knicks' plays to 20 percent of Houston's, putting him precisely at the typical figure, and his assist rate has dropped by almost a third. Lin's overall performance, All-Star caliber in 2011-12's limited sample, is slightly below league average this season. That's a more sustainable level of play.

    Looking ahead

    Lin's ability to coexist with Harden, who doesn't use as many plays as Anthony but tends to dominate the ball to a greater extent, leads naturally to the question of whether Lin could have fit into an Anthony-centric offense at Madison Square Garden.
    There are advantages to Lin's current situation. Houston's fast pace, and the sheer number of pick-and-rolls the Rockets run as the basis of their offense, give him more opportunity to play in space than he might have had in New York. Still, it's not clear that Felton is any better fit for the Knicks than Lin would have been. According to mySynergySports.com, the two players have been about equally effective on spot-up opportunities, with Lin averaging 0.91 points per shot to Felton's 0.95. Surprisingly, Lin is a much more frequent spot-up shooter.
    We're also comparing these players as they are now, not as they will be at the end of the three-year contract Houston gave Lin. While Felton, 28, is likely to be about the same player at that point if not take a slight step backward, the 24-year-old Lin still has room to grow as an outside shooter and playmaker.
    The Knicks won the early rounds of the Lin versus Felton decision. If Lin already has pulled even, however, there may be no question who the better choice was in a couple of years.
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. wapz

    wapz Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2012
    Messages:
    292
    Likes Received:
    18
    Thanks for the read!

    Lin is perfect for the young rockets, as upside is still there for the future.
     
  5. kozmo

    kozmo Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2012
    Messages:
    1,047
    Likes Received:
    7
    well Lin won in NY and in houston against the now faultering knicks. And i will say this, Felton plays zero defense and if you look closer at the numbers his shooting has been horrible. Theres no question the knicks made a mistake. They are old and and in Feltons case FAT! The only player on the team that has any trade value is Anthony and I promise you this team will fall to at least 5th in the conference....The Knicks are a bad team and getting worse......
     
  6. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    13,781
    Likes Received:
    5,722
    :confused:

    What does that have to do with someone requesting for an article to be posted?
     
  7. Parpar2j

    Parpar2j Member

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2012
    Messages:
    107
    Likes Received:
    2
    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Mike Woodson doesn't expect Knicks to make trade prior to Thursday's deadline. Of course, Woodson also said Knicks would re-sign Jeremy Lin</p>&mdash; Frank Isola (@FisolaNYDN) <a href="https://twitter.com/FisolaNYDN/status/303929719609499649">February 19, 2013</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
  8. pollaxt

    pollaxt Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2003
    Messages:
    1,822
    Likes Received:
    68
    Because it was already posted in that thread.
     
  9. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    13,781
    Likes Received:
    5,722
    Sorry I don't visit that thread at all.

    Some of us would have never seen this article since it would have probably been buried in that thread.
     
  10. lwlee

    lwlee Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2012
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    7
    Knicks have fallen back to mean. It's questionable if Lin would have made that much more of an impact versus Felton. It definitely would have been more entertaining if he had stayed in NY. The level of scrutiny would have been immense for Lin. By now, Melo would prob be requesting a trade.
     
  11. Mitchmantc

    Mitchmantc Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2009
    Messages:
    96
    Likes Received:
    12
    I concur. It's a good read, but I am not going to dig 50 pages through a Felton or NYK-Lin thread just to read this article. People on this board like to think that they are more important than they actually are. If Clutch wanted you to monitor duplicates in the threads he'd have made you a moderator too.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. muas2010

    muas2010 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2012
    Messages:
    2,269
    Likes Received:
    29
    Record would probably be the same, but I'm certain Lin would have been voted in to the All-Stars...if you looked at it with Woodson coaching, the core of Lin, Smith, Chandler, Amare, Novak, and Shumpert were actually doing quiet well.
     
  13. Ynnis888

    Ynnis888 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2012
    Messages:
    3,466
    Likes Received:
    55
    What's going on NYC?
     
  14. kastuul

    kastuul Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2012
    Messages:
    1,277
    Likes Received:
    50
    NY medias look like Lin's crazy ex.
    Get over it.
     
  15. Kam

    Kam Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2002
    Messages:
    30,476
    Likes Received:
    1,322



    Knicks fan.

    That's cool.
     
  16. just a word

    just a word Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2012
    Messages:
    951
    Likes Received:
    39
    Pretty much think at this point that Dragic is Houston's ex and that's why the Dragic versus Lin trolling on these boards happen.
     
  17. filamswag

    filamswag Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2012
    Messages:
    364
    Likes Received:
    6
    is this a troll? lol
     

Share This Page