Assessing the Potential Value of a Trade Package for Our Next Star Player

well, like you, i don't think Minny trades Kevin Love until it's clear he's not going to resign, and i think we are a long ways off from that. But i was thinking that a package of Parsons, Asik, mid-1st, and ...say Pat or Morris (right now) would probably be enough to land an Allstar-caliber/Hardenesque-type player, should one be made available.

 

I would trade Harden for Lebron James.

 

Anderson Varejao has to be the best target out there that I can find. He's on a team that is developing and it will be too late for him by the time the rest of the team comes around.

He's 14 and 14 this year, so he's ripe for Cleveland to trade him. I think we've got enough in assets to get him unless another team outbids us. He's making 8.4 million this year, then 9.1, then 9.8. They have Baron Davis's 14 million coming off the books this year and clearing out Anderson's contract would give them a lot of room to play with in the cap.

Anderson would greatly improve the pick and roll offense with his solid moves near the basket and would instantly help the defense.

We could stand to offer Cole Aldrich, Marcus Morris, Terrence Jones, Donatas Montiejunas, Patterson, Greg Smith, Royce White and picks without hurting the team too much. All the players listed are young and have worth with it comes to potential. Expiring contracts are also available.

All-in-all, this is the most reasonable dream I can find, but Morey can tend to be a magician, so I look forward to the trade deadline.

 

His value goes up every year as he is under this contract as long as he improves. The big thing for the Rockets and other teams is to have or get his bird rights before his contract runs out. After that, the team can go over the cap to sign him. Once he signs next deal his value as a trade asset goes down, but he is still a very good player.

 

IMO, Lin and Asik aren't very likely to be traded. Trading Lin in less than two seasons would be really embarrassing for Les. Asik just has too much upside. It will take a LOT to pry him away from Morey's hands.

Parsons is more likely to be traded because of his basketball value and small contract. He together with some expiring contracts would be attractive for a team who needs to unload they star player.

Yes, LeBron and Durant are the only players Morey would trade Harden for, which is to say never.

 

Les won't trade Lin because of the sponsorship money and media exposure. If it was all about aiming to be a championship ball club I sbelieve they should try to get out his contract.

Some posters think the NY game was a coming out party but I'm not convinced. It just looks so obvious to me that he doesn't have a solution against teams who game plan to stop him. Even the Spurs game he couldn't beat the re-adjusted defense in the 4th and OT.

 

Looking to our roster now, and if a grade 1 is the player that we should keep no matter what, and grade 5 is the player we would trade without thikning twice, I would classify this way:

Harden: 1 - This is without doubt. He is our star player, young, and probably the management will try to keep him here for his entire career

Asik: 1 - The way he has been playing, and most of all, the way he has been improving, shows a ceiling that is not bellow top 10. Morey probably is proud of himself for stealing Asik from Chicago, and in a position where there aren't much stars nowadays, keeping Asik is a no brainer.

Lin: 2 - since to his slow start, he has not positioned himself as a star of this franchise yet. He has not been playing fantastic, despite the increase of production in the last games. But if he continues playing well, surely he will become a player that we will not dare to trade. However, business-wise, he provides a lot of income to the organization and overall, is hard to think Rockets are gonna trade him easily.

Parsons: 2. He is part of the core of this team for the future, alongside the 3 above. However, not free from being traded if a superstar is available. Same probability as Lin, IMO.

Pattterson: 3. So far, he is playing competent, but clearly is the position where we can improve the most. He can be a good trade asset if a star PF is coming.

Morris: 3. Same as PPat

Greg Smith: 3. Despite being a huge prospect for our future, and having a lot of upside, we already have Asik as a center, and Smith did not prove himself as a PF, nor showed yet range with jumpshots to be there. So he can be traded if a superstar is on the horizon. On the other hand, Morey is probably very proud of "finding" Smith, a undrafted 21 years old. That maybe is an incentive for him to keep Smith, and see if he can become a star player. I, personally, would hate to see him go.

DMo: 3. Despite having a lot of upside, he is still a rookie, in a stacked position (PF), full of good prospects and competent players on the roster. If trading him to get a proven star at PF position is needed, probably Morey would do it.

TJones: 3. Same as DMo.

TDouglas: 4. Despite being a very important part of the team, I don't think Morey would suffer or overthink if he has to include him in a trade.

Delfino: 4. Same as TD, and perhaps even easier to trade.

Machado: 4. He is not ready for NBA yet, but since the Rockets are willing to nurture him and make him grow, probably he is a keeper for this year.

Aldrich: 5. No brainer, we are covered at Center with Asik and Smith. Is good to have a 3rd center in case of an injury, but it doesn't have to be necessarily him.

Cook: 5. The few times he was on court, he showed a reckless shooting and iso-tendency. He doesn't seem a good fit on this team, overall.

Royce White: 5. No comments needed.

Players that other teams would like to have and can be a good asset for trading for a superstar. And the Rockets would only trade for a superstar also: Lin, Parsons, Smith

Players that are acceptable for other teams and could be traded for a proven good PF: DMo, TJones, TDouglas, Delfino,

Players that can be fillers in a trade: Machado, Delfino, either one of DMo or TJones.

Players that we would be interested in trading off: Aldrich, Cook, White

I would love to keep the core of: Harden, Lin, Parsons and Asik. And also to keep: Smith, DMo, TJones. And add a star PF, and either keep TDouglas or a good rotation player to 1-3 positions. Of course, it would be very hard to keep all those above and add a star. Unless Morey does some miracle. Well, we have the cap space.

 

Agreed about Varejao. I think he would mesh wonderfully with out team, and he can play the PF position. His work ethic, defense, rebounding and mobility would be very useful.

 

Of course. But he is untouchable in Heats. So dont even dream about it. We have to be realistic.

 

What if there were either a multi-team trade or a multi-step trade involving DMo, Jones, Douglas, Delfino? As in, trade them for a player who would be roughly value 2 or upper 3, and then use that player plus random assets to get the star at the 4?

Or hell, even something like: trade some of the 3~4 rank players for a young starting PG, then trade that PG with Utah for Milsap/Jefferson (Utah wants a starting PG for the future), then flip Milsap/Jefferson + misc assets for Love?

 

The multi-step seems an interesting way and opens several possibilities.
If we consider that our main target would be getting a star PF without giving away Lin, Harden, Parsons and Asik, probably doing multi-step trades is the only solution viable.

 

This team doesn't seem to have any problems coming up with offense. Defense might be more important in taking that next step.