NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Yep......he must be crazy! 86.3% as of today..............

A big # to throw out. Must be 'somewhat' secure in what he knows.

Oh......and BO was up on John McCain at this point in 08'.....according to Silver.........77.4%.

But I got this feeling........a deep feeling......Gary Johnson is gonna win this!

 

86.3%, 307.2. ba dum tsssss.

 

There is no way that America elects Mr Wall Street. If the GOP wants another chance in four years, Rubio needs to start moderating his rhetoric on taxes, social services, job protection, and corporate accountability.

And let's hope the Demos pick up enough seats to tweak healthcare reform. There are still a few improvements that can be made.

 

where's dwight i mean jopat?

H-I-D-I-N-G-?

 

Oh dear. 538 is up to 91%. jopat needs a lot of help between now and tomorrow morning on his 50/50 prediction. The next 24 hours are going to destroy his whole world.

 

Updated again to 92.2%. That's gonna be one drastic fall in the morning! :grin:

 

Jopatmc's feelings are never wrong. Expect the swing to start shortly.

 

jopats right when it hits 99.99 its gonna reset to zero and climb up to 50

 

Here's my original prediction. I did predict Nate would wind down his odds.

Unfortunately, I was giving Nate way too much credit. I thought he was smarter than he was. He is so blinded by false data that he can't see the truth right in front of his eyes. This happens sometimes to predictors. He is as blind to Obama losing this election as I was blinded to his mathematical brilliance. I thought the guy was smart enough to wind it down to neutral.

Unfortunately, he's gonna be way off tomorrow and we're gonna have to read about what 8% means and how Romney fit into the 8%, yada, yada, yada. Romney wins Ohio and he flips to 92%, yada, yada, yada.

Bottom line is we got a big fat nuth'n out of Nate and his predictor model. Because Obama is getting torched tomorrow and any rational human being will be able to look back at this experience of reading a 30 something statistician and believing all his number spinning and wonder why we were so interested in this GIGO indicator when the truth was in front of our eyes the whole team.


NO PRESIDENT THAT HAS PRESIDED OVER 7.5% UNEMPLOYMENT OR GREATER, THAT HAS PRESIDED OVER ECONOMIC AND FISCAL FAILURE, AND THAT HAS BROKEN CAMPAIGN PROMISES FROM HIS FIRST PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN HAS EVER GOTTEN RE-ELECTED.

Barack is done.

 

I thought it was 8%?

 

I just can't fathom the thought processes people go through when they post the kind of stuff that we're seeing Silver-doubters post now. It's truly a denial of reality in the face of facts. It's some cognitive process that I simply can't understand. The same people who believe Barack Obama's college transcripts will show him to be a foreign student, or the people who believe he's a Muslim also share in this denial. Some Republicans have truly immersed themselves in a fantasy world or alternate reality that not only disagrees with others, but completely ignores the facts surrounding debatable issues.

We finally get why jopatmc doesn't believe Obama will win...

Well, this is just nonsense.

In 1936 FDR was re-elected with an unemployment rate of 16%. In 1940 he was re-elected again with unemployment at 14.5%

Ronald Reagan was re-elected in 1984 with unemployment at 7.4% Is 0.1% really the difference maker?

Oh, and every president in the history of the country has broken promises, it's just political reality. When you get into office circumstances change.

So no, jopatmc, you're wrong. Step off of Bull-**** Mountain. Come back and join reality. You'll feel better knowing that you're a rational, thinking human being, rather than someone who has buried their head in the sand.

 

Also, don't be stubborn like Dwight.

 

The Princeton Election Consortium now has it at 98% for Obama. The guy running that probably isn't very smart either, so don't worry.

 

can this loser leave this ****ing forum after he loses his bet?

 

This country of ours is lucky to have Obama as its president for the last four years.

Four more years.

 

You're talking about a representative member of a group that systematically and deliberately chooses to ignore or even demean science so I'm not sure why you're surprised by it. I don't understand it, either, but then again I am a reality-based voter.

 

A request. Can we stay away from Dwight Howard here and hopefully other threads in D&D? By now everyone gets the point. But it's just depressing to be reminded of how utterly rigged the NBA is against everyone not in a big market.

BTW, I'm very curious to see just how accurate polls have been relative to the actual election. I very much doubt there's enough of a systematic bias in these polls, but it is the only surprise left in the election.

 

WOW! Nate flipped FL & VA to the President.

 

Stuff like that does make me question Nate Silver.

Even though I think Obama will likely win I don't think an Obama landslide like what Silver is predicting seems that likely.

 

Yes, I just saw. Nate is really putting his reputation on the line. I would have thought Florida is a lost cause, but then I don't have Jopa's crystal ball. :grin: