One factor you should remember about Republicans right now. They are U-P-S-E-T with the media spin and what has been going on in this country. If you think for one moment they are going to respond to crappy pollsters that are twisting and torquing their polls, you've got another thing coming. If you think 2010 was a fluke, you've got another thing coming. If you think the Tea Party is just a distraction, you've got another thing coming. The Tea Party was a huge swing to the right for the Republican party. And it is a serious movement. The Republican voter base isn't cooperating with pollsters. The pollsters are already exposed to them. Those guys call....and the republican voter just hangs up the phone. They're gonna show up to the polls tomorrow and possibly be interviewed after they vote. The system is being exposed.
right but when you classify 86% of the registered voters you sample as likely voters, that's way off, their letting too many through, tighter likely voter screens are expensive and time consuming http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/ If you truly believe Dem turnout will be as good/better than the 2008 Obama blue wave, ok, but there's no reason to think that. The Pew/Gallup/Rasmussen partisan affiliation surveys are showing something more like 2004
So your theory is that they are upset with the media and are angry and really want to make their voice heard, so they are hanging up on their opportunity to make their voice heard when someone calls to ask about their opinion. They are also unhappy that pollsters are sampling too few Republicans leading to "skewed polls", so out of anger, they are going to contribute to that by refusing to repond and causing the polls to be skewed. And, of course, they were doing this before they knew the polls were skewed and knew that they should be upset by that fact. And this only applies to 2012 and didn't apply in 2010 when they were also upset about the media and what was going on in the country. That year, they were happy to talk to pollsters, but this year, they changed their mind. Clearly some very solid logic.
Why is that way off? Is that different from previous years? 70% was the actual rate in 2004 (don't have numbers in 2008). But your registered voters that are least likely to vote are probably also hanging up on the surveys and not in the original sample anyway. The only ones in the registered voter sample were the ones at least interested enough to spend the time responding to all the various questions. Except Dem turnout doesn't need to be the same as 2008. Independent-leaning Republicans listing themselves as Indepedents accounts for all your "skew" and explains why independents lean right - without need for any conspiracy theories or unsubstantiated "all the polls are wrong!" claims.
They were happy to point to the polls after the first debate when Romney had an uptick (but was still losing).
Apparently people are willing to spend time responding to the party affiliation question, but they hang up when asked who they'll vote for.
Now I'm wanting Obama to win just so we never have to see you on here anymore. This is really getting bad. And when you leave---when all these rabid conspiracy theories of yours prove false and you have no one but McMurphy, Chief, and Martini for conversation (oh wait, McMurphy's dead, and Chief escaped)---please don't come back registered under a new username. LOOK OUT! OBAMA'S BEHIND YOU! HE'S AFTER YOUR DAUGHTER! HE'S AFTER YOUR GUNS! HE'S AFTER YOUR CIVIL LIBERTIES! HE WANTS TO INDOCTRINATE YOU ON "DAS KAPITAL" AND THE QUR'AN!
So, are you proud of the fact that your party, the Republican Party, has done everything it can to either prevent altogether, or make extremely difficult, the ability of Americans to vote? Not only in Florida, but in other states, like Ohio? Does that make you grin? Do you jump up and down in delight at the thought of citizens of the United States of America, a democracy, having to battle your party for the right to cast a ballot? That your party opposes making it easier to vote, but instead fights against a citizen's ability to vote? It certainly sounds like it. I suspect you are proud of your party. You should be ashamed.
Then the polls on party affiliation are also incorrect? Keep in mind, these are the polls you're relying on to bolster your position. Or at least, the ones that Commodore is using.
According to YOU, I guess not. According to the random samples, they are representative of the electorate. In fact, the only way to conclude that Romney is leading in the polls is to systematically SKEW ("unskewed" is a misnomer, what you are doing is skewing the ACTUAL DATA to fit your beliefs about the electorate) the data to fit your preconceived notions about the American electorate.
