You do realize there are more Indies and less Repubs this cycle because since 2010 a bunch of Tea Partiers decided they were Indie instead of Repub, right? Indie numbers are up in an almost direct relationship with the downward swing in Repub numbers. This also explains why Indies skew right more than in previous cycles as well as the larger disparity between Dems and Repubs.
Ahhhhh, finally someone attempts to explain the sampling skew. Good job. It's not right. But I respect the effort. You'll see on Tuesday night.
Some people won't know what's happened until after it hits them in the face and they wake up and somebody tells them they got hit. This country swung so hard right in 2010 and most of the left still is in denial.
Add this to the long list of issues where Romney has flipped and flopped all over the place. There have been several times when Romney could have taken a stand on something but he keeps switching his position depending on which audience he's talking to. I'm not sure how once he's the President anyone expects him to stand up to the special interests that will be knocking on his door all the time. He hasn't stood for anything this whole campaign.
I'll take a shot. Obama will win because, other than those little things called polls that predict he's going to win, whenever Jupiter is in retrograde older people are less likely to vote. How'd I do? Wheeeeeee!
2EZ, How about a tougher question, how many championship MVP allstar crown rings will Ricky Rubio win this month?
Very much depends on when you measure in 2010. Check out the chart in the link. You can adjust for likely voters, registered voters or just general population. Whatever you pick, the trend lines are similar... more Indies, less Repubs since late 2010. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/can_romney_win_indies_lose.php
By the way, it's impossible to tell what the source material is for that chart. Can you shed some light on where those numbers came from? I ask because the numbers are a little different than from what I've seen. Thanks.
Already did in other thread, worth repeating here: OK, that's easy. 1. More people are better off now than they were 4 years ago. You can spin all the "facts" you want, and there are still many people who are suffering, but a majority are better now than in 2008/2009. Whether that is a large or small majority doesn't matter. Based on unemployment, house sales, etc. People are going to vote based on their own individual situation. And more people are better off than they were 2, 3, and 4 years ago. Plus, here are some others: 2. Obama generally has a high likeability rating. YOU may not like him, but you don't represent the majority. It may not be a great majority, but you don't need a great majority to win an election. 3. Obama's approval rating is at 50%, and it's been on the rise. Good trend. 4. Mitt Romney still has likeability issues. Not sure what the latest percentage is, but it's not as high as it needs to be. Obama's approval rating is high ENOUGH to win an election. The economy has been improving ENOUGH to win an election. Obama is liked by ENOUGH of a majority to win. And Romney is not ENOUGH of a compelling candidate, like Reagan or even W Bush (who had a high likeability rating), to overcome this. Obama is ahead and has been ahead in ENOUGH close states to win the electoral votes. Romney can certainly win, but he'd have to win in almost every battleground state, whereas the road is not as difficult for Obama. Those are facts, the polls have been out there for long enough to determine this, and there's absolutely a case for Obama winning while there is one for Romney, as well. Not sure why that's hard for you to understand- if this was Kerry or Dukakis, we'd be on the other end- close, but probably not enough to win. This isn't Carter vs. Reagan, as much as you'd like it to be.
That's some interesting stuff right there. More people are better off??? You've got to be kidding me. How much debt does each of our children inherit? And you think more people are better off? Who are the more people that are better off? Likeability and approval ratings? Once again, gotta read through the polls and see what they're sampling. Obama is below 50% true approval rating when you unskew everything. He's in trouble. In fact, he's not in trouble...he's done.
If Romney wins CO, AR, VA, NC, FL, and NH (which all are feasible victories), then all he has to do is steal just one of these (OH, WI, MI, MN, PA) to win the electorate. This is a turnout game. Which base is more fired up?
OK...prediction time. Romney wins the popular vote, Obama wins the electoral vote, and the country goes nuts.
Why not just make prediction time tomorrow night at midnight? That way everybody can say they were right.
