Morey wanted Gogi, not Lin

haoafu · Oct 20, 2012

Wow, league source confirmation again?

We have numerous legit coverage on the record for all the details, and this article just mentioned 'league source' , and it's now 'confirmed'?

dialtone888 · Oct 20, 2012

Morey wanted Gogi because his daughter thinks he's cute.

Sen89 · Oct 20, 2012

This is good to hear.

We all knew the non-basketball side of the organization would want Lin, but to know that the people that actually manage the basketball side felt that Lin wasn't worth $25 mil gives me more faith in the franchise.

M4-Nightvision · Oct 20, 2012

We all shall see dragic vs Lin ... even tho Dragic has more experience than Lin. I think Lin is more athletic than Dragic.

johnstarks · Oct 20, 2012

Carl Herrera said: ↑

Does the article mention Dragic? Seems this part comes from yoir imagination.

Also, if les wanted Lin more tham Dragic, why didn't they talk to Lin at the first possible moment (midnight, July 1st) instead of days later, after the Dragic negotiation was looking unlikely, and only finalized the offer during summer league? Instead, Morey and McHale spoke with Asik and Dragic on Juky 1st, not Lin.

As for what Broussard wrote: it has been reported that the Rockets initially offered 3 yrs, 20 mil, and later increased it to 25 mil after the Knicks said they would match the 20 mil (and up to 1 billion dollars). Morey said publicly that Les raised the idea of offering the extra $5 M. Perhaps the basketball ops people were leery of offering the extra money, but neither the article nor other info mention Morey preferring Dragic for the same contract term.

As for the player option being a cover: whether you like it or not, Morey has a history of hating player options. Never gave one to any player. In fact, only guy on the roster that had it was Yao Ming.
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Why undercut OP's leap to causal inference with logic and evidence? You're robbing people of the chance to graft their personal resentments onto anyone that is perceived as a rival to Lin.

DAROckets · Oct 20, 2012

jopatmc · Oct 20, 2012

M4-Nightvision said: ↑

We all shall see dragic vs Lin ... even tho Dragic has more experience than Lin. I think Lin is more athletic than Dragic.
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Nope. Dragic is bigger, stronger, and more athletic. No question about it.

lookabove · Oct 20, 2012

typhooonn said: ↑

who is Gogi ?
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Gogi Grant (born September 20, 1924) is an American popular singer. She is best known for her long-running classic #1 hit, "The Wayward Wind".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUx5QuIRwNY

RV6 · Oct 20, 2012

Why do we need confirmation that Les wanted to make more money and the rockets wanted to keep Dragic?

Both are obvious. Rockets were working with Dragic to get a deal done. If Phoenix doesn't give him that player option, he stays and we have no reason to give Lin an offer.

Morey has said, and keeps saying, he doesn't expect lin to continue putting up the same numbers, as he did during Linsanity. Morey's said he was wrong about Lin, but hasn't exactly talked about him like he's sure of what Lin can accomplish. We all know Morey doesn't give big deals to players he's not sure about, so Les obviously was pushing for this deal.

Angkor Wat · Oct 20, 2012

torocan said: ↑

Yes and No.

Ask yourself this question? Why do FA's prefer to go to Big Market teams? Why do Big Market teams have the advantage in attracting talent?

While there are multiple reasons, here are a few...

1) More fans. Big market teams have large population bases, and thus large fan bases. A player that generates large buzz disproportionately increases fan base.

2) More sponsorship/endorsement money. Big cities have large companies already in place. Most players go to where those companies are... popular players BRING those sponsors WITH them.

3) More media coverage. Alot of NBA stars have Ego's. They just don't want to be good/great, they want people to SEE it. So, they go to the media centers... LA, NY, etc. Popular players however can BRING that media WITH them. Just look at the first Lin press conference... that's more media than most teams get during the playoffs.

So, if Lin maintains a decent game most of the media attention will remain. This makes Houston a more attractive place for FA's, which improves the chances of landing Star Players during FA or even getting on the short list of destinations during trade talks with players.
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We'll need more than Lin and a bunch of young guys to attract Big FAs. Dwight didn't want to play with Lin & Co. If this team doesn't win games, free agents wont care if we have a popular guy that the media loves. Houston isn't a big market, so we are going to need to win games to get players to want to play here.

A pipeline to China is not enough (See Dwight). And you don't really need to play in Houston to get endorsements in China, look at Wade and his new shoe deal. MIA is not exactly known for their robust Chinese population

As for Fan benefits, there are a few...

For example, not getting blank stares when you talk about your players. There's few things worse than being a fan of a team that people consider irrelevant. It's not fun being the ONLY guy who's wearing that team jersey, or being the ONLY guy that can name people on the roster. Or being the guy that wants to watch the game while everyone else wants to watch Idol or The Voice.
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LMAO are you serious? You sound like you should be a fan of the Heat or Lakers then. I love being the only guy representing my team. I don't give a damn what others think of my team. How does that effect me? That's the beauty of being a sports fan. It's easy to be a fan of popular teams like NY or LAL.

As for being the only one to want to watch a BASKETBALL GAME over some corny REALITY SHOW , maybe you should stop hanging around with gay dudes lol. Idol/Voice over NBA basketball? Hahahahah I would make fun of them so hard

One thing that Lin did in NY is he made basketball RELEVANT again. I know guys who are life long Knicks fans, that suddenly could watch the games with their Families. Parents and Grandparents who had lost interest in basketball were suddenly watching again, and sharing the games with them.
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Not going to disagree that he made the Knicks relevant again but Lin or not, basketball will always be big in NY. Sure he brought in a lot of casual fans and Asian fans but the Knicks never had trouble filling seats. Basketball will survive in NY after Lin is gone.

Look, all I'm saying is, when it comes to roster moves, I prefer and most fans prefer that they make the best basketball decision not necessarily the best business decision. In the end, I want this Lin Experience to be a better basketball decision (as in winning titles) than a better business decision ($$$$ for Les).

daspydamayn · Oct 20, 2012

that should be obvious since we went after dragic first? lin basically took the deal dragic did not want

Mr. Clutch · Oct 20, 2012

Lin will be better.

That's all that matters.

BONIERO1576 · Oct 20, 2012

So basically this tells us that Felton has aways stayed fat and mediocre so he wouldn't have a target on his back.

ROF2012 · Oct 20, 2012

torocan said: ↑

Actually, I disagree with your analysis.

We knew Lowry was gone (incompatibilities with McHale).

They DID try to negotiate with Dragic, but weren't willing to give Dragic a player option. This is very much in line with the Rockets' philosophy of not tying themselves down for a long period on mid level players. During that process it was reported that the offer to Lin was similar to Dragic's offer... 5/5.3/9.3/9.4 or $30M over 4 years ($7.25M/year), but a TEAM option.

It was only after the Dragic negotiation broke down and they realized that they would have a near ZERO chance of retaining Lin that they upped the offer to 3 years, $25M.

This makes perfect sense. Initially when they were negotiating for Dragic, there was multiple PG's still up for grabs. This gave the Rockets negotiating leverage in terms of finding an adequate PG.

By the time Dragic was gone, there were no decent starting PG's left on the market.

So, if you're the owner you're faced with the following prospect... NO decent PG's, a team full of picks and rookies, no big names to sell tickets, and no real support players to attract a FA like Dwight, with the possibility that you don't acquire Dwight at all and have an all rookie team (recipe for empty arena's).

For the Rockets, upping their offer from $30M/4 years to $25M/3 years works out to a $1M/year cap increase, but maximizes the possibility of acquiring Lin, solidifies the PG position, increases their market profile (making the team more attractive to FA's), AND puts seats in the Arena if they do NOT succeed in acquiring Dwight.

This is a classic example of big picture thinking.

Alexander is an owner and businessman and looks at the team in Holistic terms. Morey is an analytics guy and looks at the team in Production terms (doesn't consider seats, marketing, or intangibles like brand profile).

This is something very common in the business world. Owners will often conflict with management as management tends to see decisions in purely operational terms. In other words, how much does X produce on the ground that you can directly attribute to them.

So, let's say you're Morey... you look at Lin's numbers. You know there are multiple PG's in play but you also know you need to negotiate with Dragic. You know that Lowry is gone. Dragic doesn't pan out, so you start negotiating with Lin and offer what you statistically feel comfortable with... $7.25M/year over 4 years. If you don't get him, that's okay... there are still other PG's on the market, right?

Between your negotiations with Lin and the FA period, all the remaining decent PG's get snapped up... now you have a problem. You're facing the possibility of trying to entice Dwight, but don't have a PG in place, AND you don't have any names to play beside him. And if you don't get Dwight, now you really are dead in the water.

So, now you're Morey and you're sitting with Alexander and lay out the situation. Alexander asks Morey's thoughts... Morey says Lin has skill and upside but there's uncertainty in how good he'll be because it was a small sample size (25 games as a starter).

Alexander asks, what would they have to do to get Lin. Morey replies, probably increase the offer.

Alexander pulls out a piece of paper, works out the numbers and realizes that changing the offer to 3 years/$25M effectively only increases the payment to Lin by $1m/year in terms of cap space and overall financial impact. In his mind, he's overpaying Lin a maximum of $1M a year, but dramatically increases the chances of retaining Lin... given the Knicks' public position, it's highly doubtful they would meaningfully increase their chances of retaining Lin by taking a nickel and dime approach.

Increasing the offer to 5/5/$12M or $13M would most likely have been matched. Even offering the $15M in year 3 had a good chance of being matched (Lin was told that the Rockets STILL felt there was an 85-90% chance the Knicks would match at $15M in year 3).

Morey is probably not comfortable with paying that much (he's looking at it purely from a production basis), however for Alexander it's an easy decision. +-$1M is a negligible impact on cap space with ZERO luxury tax implications. Lin easily offsets the salary differential through his marketing value, brand recognition value, and his value in terms of attracting additional FA's.

In other words, management is very comfortable paying $7.25M/year, but not so comfortable paying $8.3M/year.

Alexander looks at overpaying $1M vs NOT having a PG and empty Arena's as the far LESSER of the two evils. And he foresees the possibility of making MORE money and revitalizing the franchise should Lin have a decent year or better. And if Lin struggles somewhat, they have lots of time to work on his game as he's a young player.

While there are questions in the air about how consistent Lin will be in his performances, there is little doubt that Lin has the Potential to have 20+ scoring or 10+ assist on any given night.

Even if Lin were to be shown to be inconsistent PG in the long run, an inconsistent PG that can occassionally score 20+ points, or put up 10+ assists still has value in the League even if it's off the bench. A Top flight backup PG would still command $5M+. Even Jordan Farmar and Ramon Sessions command $4m and $5m per year. The downside is actually not as far down as people think.

And if Lin develops into an all-star talent... he becomes a HUGE bargain at $8.3M.

Looked at from a risk/reward point of view, it makes perfect sense for Alexander to be willing to push harder than operations in terms of acquiring Lin.
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Good post and analysis!!!

roxxy · Oct 20, 2012

RV6 said: ↑

Why do we need confirmation that Les wanted to make more money and the rockets wanted to keep Dragic?

Both are obvious. Rockets were working with Dragic to get a deal done. If Phoenix doesn't give him that player option, he stays and we have no reason to give Lin an offer.

Morey has said, and keeps saying, he doesn't expect lin to continue putting up the same numbers, as he did during Linsanity. Morey's said he was wrong about Lin, but hasn't exactly talked about him like he's sure of what Lin can accomplish. We all know Morey doesn't give big deals to players he's not sure about, so Les obviously was pushing for this deal.
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"When we had Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady," Rockets GM Morey says, "those were our centerpieces. We were putting players around them that fit them. Right now we're really sort of figuring out who those foundational players will be. But if you had to ask me who's most likely to be that guy, I think Jeremy Lin's number one.

Read More http://www.gq.com/sports/profiles/201211/jeremy-lin-gq-november-2012-cover-story#ixzz29rMkP3Yv

Aruba77 · Oct 20, 2012

No doubt dragic is more athletic, and a better basketball player. I think Lin has better court-vision, but he doesn't have much else on dragic. He can, however, develop into something special, and he's younger. I don't think it's any secret that Les was the driving force behind getting Lin. Answers a lot of questions about why the dragic signing process was so strange; doubtful Lin would have signed that offer sheet with Dragic newly resigned.

In the end, we lost 2 excellent guards, but gained a lotto pick and a young franchise pg. considering Lowry's discontent, and that Dragic was a UFA, things could have gone a lot worse.

Rodman23 · Oct 20, 2012

Your parents wanted a daughter, not a son, sorry.

stl1622dc · Oct 20, 2012

We also wanted Dwight, Pau, and a ton of other people. Get over it! He's not coming back. Move on...

SaoPaolo · Oct 20, 2012

So

Felton yesterday made 6 TO and 4 assists

Knicks lost by 20 to Toronto

And this article fails already

detso · Oct 20, 2012

We didn't lose Dragic or Lowry because of Lin and Lin was the closest thing we could get. I am quite confident that Lin would end up at least above average.

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Morey wanted Gogi, not Lin

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