Third year. I'm not optimistic regarding Patterson. People can claim it was the injury or whatever but he looked like he lost not only his athleticism but also his IQ and his passion last season...never good for a second year player.
If they get significant playing time, about 4 years, but you should be able to get an idea if they are going to be special within the first 2 years. I think we all knew Sam Cassell and Horry were going to be good in their first years. Same with Steve and Cat.
Patterson is on the way out if any major trades were to occur. There is nothing special about a PF that does not commit to rebounding.
Depends on the player: - Marcus Morris should definitely get another shot if he stays but I don't see him making any impact. The way he played in D-league was terrible, remember Mike Harris was a star and did almost nothing on NBA level and his attitude was bad. However, this year is make it or break it for him. - Patterson deserves to have another shot but i'm not optimistic, his post play was terrible. - Motiejunas has a lot of experience in Europe so I will give him only 1, 2 years tops. - White has potential but could be a case where he gets it together in 3-4 years so I will give him 3 to show he can start and show he can improve in his 4th year. - Lamb gets 3 years, he just needs to show he's ready to play defense and not necessarily be the first option on offense. He tends to go 'Kevin Martin' when he doesn't get the ball. Also he needs to bulk up and be willing to do this. It could take a while before he gets it together and shows he's fully committed. - Jones gets 2 years because a 6'8 / 6'9 forward are a dime a dozen and if he doesn't show any growth by the end of year 1 and anything special by the end of the 2nd year, he could be just another Patterson / Landry.
judging by some superb recent Euro big men, like Splitter, Pekovic, you have to give 2 years at least. Even if it's a veteran. Maybe especially if it's a veteran. The game is different, especially for 7 footers. Europe is much more physical (in how it's officiated and how much you are allowed to use your hands to push people), so they collect fouls like mad at the start. different spacing, more 1v1 situations. less zone. different goaltending rules. Maybe it will be different for Donatas, because he's not an exclusively post player. But more likely, you won't see him anywhere close to his best in 1 year.
It should probably be until the end of their rookie contract...(when you are forced to make a decision on them)
No question you should see something substantial by year 2: Aaron Brooks - rotation player by the end of year 1 starter by the end of year 2 Carl Landry - rotation player by the end of year 1 6th man of year candidate by end of year 2 Luis Scola - Starter by the end of year 1 Chase Budinger - rotation player in year 1 starter by the end of year 2 rotation player in year 3 Chandler Parsons - starter in year 1 Patrick Patterson rotation player by end of year 1 By the end of year 1 we had conformation that each of those players were worth extended looks by the Rockets. By the end of year 2 we basically had a very good idea what kind of players each of those guys are. The 2 exceptions might be Aaron Brooks and I'm willing to say the same thing about Pat. With Brooks he won MIP in his 3rd year and only his cieling was really in question, but we all knew he was a legit NBA player. PPat gets a bit of a pass because of no off-season and surgery last year but he needs to make a substantial jump. Marcus Morris - nothing Someone like Marcus should have shown some form of improvement last season but even with KMart & Lowry hurt and Chase logging minutes at shooting guard, Marcus still could not earn meaningful minutes when they were clearly available. Marcus is on the absolute shortest of leashes IMO and the only thing saving his arse at this point is the fact that he was a lottery pick with garunteed money.
I think you also have to factor in age and amateur track record. One of the reasons I like Lamb is because he's so young, and was very productive and tremendously polished as an 18 and 19-year-old for a major program. And you look at White, he only played one year in college, so you expect some growing pains. With Patterson, considering his age, this is a make-or-break year for him, especially given the current configuration of our roster. And I'm expecting immediate impact from D-Mo, given the level of competition he's been facing and the fact that he's already has an unusually refined post game for a guy his age. And regardless, if we are truly going into tank mode, you give them all a long leash. Trial by fire. Until we get someone better players to replace them through the draft. To tell you the truth, I think a hard-ass like McHale is the right guy to develop the youngsters and get them playing the right way and hustling. Larry Brown would probably be even better, but given our surplus of bigs, K-Mac could be a great for guys like D-Mo, Asik, and Jones. Maybe even jorts. Even though it would hurt our draft position for 2013, it would be awesome if this could be like the Pre-T-Mac/Hill Orlando Heart & Hustle team and shock us all by winning 38-42 Ws. The Tor pick actually makes that scenario something to hope for. As for individual expectations: Parsons (24) - Not a finished product by any means, but he's at the point where we know he can start in this league. It's just a matter of improving on what he can already do and refining his jumper. Patterson (24) - I was very high on PPat last offseason, but his star has faded considerably in my eyes. Make or beak year for him. He's got three rooks breathing down his neck. I still think he can be an Antonio Davis 13-9 guy, but with his ankle healed, there's no making excuses this year. Motiejunas (22) - Looking for him to be an immediate contributor, especially if he can secure a starting role (fouls may be an issue, adjusting to the speed and NBA refs). I see this guy eventually (maybe even by 2013-14) becoming a 7-foot Scola with more hops, better D and 3pt range. Next year, 11ppg / 6.5 rpg with .470/.300/.650 shooting %s in 25 mpg would be nice. Lamb (20) - If he's coming off the bench, I just want to see flashes. If he's starting, I'd say 12-15 ppg, middling shooting percentages (fg% maybe 40-43%, 3p% maybe 32-35%) in 30mpg. Basically MarShon Brooks last year. White/Jones (21 and 20) - It'll be interesting to see who gets more burn if we keep both. I don't think Jones can play the 3 spot on both sides of the ball in anything more than spot action. If White gets the nod, I expect a lot of growing pains, just because I think it'll take some time to adapt his skillset to NBA competition. Probably a lot mental mistakes. I just want to see a high motor. If it's Jones, I hope he shows the same motor and aggression he showed in SL. If he can continue to show that he can contribute without having the ball in his hands, I'll be happy. I've kinda given up on Morris, but if he comes into the season with a shiny new perimeter game, I'll reconsider that stance. tl;dr: Spoiler To summarize my dissertation (wasn't meant to go on this long, I apologize), I think Lamb and Motiejunas are the only youngsters with legitimate star potential, so you expect more, but also allow them more slack when they make mental mistakes. If White and Jones can just play within themselves, hustle, limit mistakes, and have a few cool SC Top Plays (essentially do what Parsons did last year), I'll be stoked. If they struggle adapting to a complimentary role like Morris last year, I'll be disappointed
everyone was on pattersons jock in his rookie season, he was injured the past 2 seasons, so now he sucks and morey is the worst GM in the league for drafting him..
Try it in Haiku or something. Lamb White Mo Jones playin strong Morey's big jackpot Down the drain for Dwight Howard
Pat2, I'm not sure what people are expecting for a 14th pick... I watched most of the rockets games last year, and from what I've seen, Pat2 actually slightly improved his defensive and offensive footwork. His stats sheet was not as good as first year, but he did add much more intangible in his game. Of course, in this rate of improvement, Pat2 will hardly become a star player, but he can surely be a solid rotation player in the near future. Additionally, Pat2 is a hard worker, and he can set-up a good culture for a young-team. Therefore, I believe rockets are unlikely to give up pat2, unless he is asking for an arm and a leg, or there is a shot for a superstar. Morris, He has a good upside, but I believe he is lack of the most important talent out there, work ethic. He probably will get some min in the beginning of next season in rockets, and I hope he will take it seriously...
Jones measures 6'9.5" with a 7'2" wing-span, which is good size for a PF. He's also far more atheltic and talented than the average PF, including Pat. He's not a dime a dozen. My only concern is if he'll have an opportunity to prove that with the logjam of 4's on our roster.
