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the fallacy of the "lin will cost the knicks $43m in year 3" argument

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by hotballa, Jul 16, 2012.

  1. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    Been hearing this number a lot in the last two days and amazed at how people are just quoting it verbatim and not really thinking about it. Lins contract isnt the reason the caps are over the cap now and in 3 years. They already are over the cap. If they are that worried about not paying the tax then do a salary dump with amare before the season starts. Someone will be more than happy to take that expiring contract off their hands. Plus why did they sign like 3 or 4 different multiyear contracts?? If they arw over the cap its their own fault not the rox poison pill

    http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=new-yorkknicks&id=22188&localId=nyc&wjb=
     
  2. Dream Sequence

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    when they trade away that expiring contract in a dump won't they have to take $ back in another contract?
     
  3. plutoblue11

    plutoblue11 Member

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    Another myth to add: The Rockets will only pay Lin, 10.2 MM over the next two seasons, not 8.3 MM or 14 MM per year. Though, the Rockets payment to Lin accelerates to over $14 MM in the third season...it's still an expiring deal. The poison pill is only in one season, unlike other poison contracts that are over a period of seasons.
     
  4. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

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    not if to a team under the cap. but it is a huge contract and will be more difficult than most to move.

    Still, they could just amnesty him.

    the point is if the combo of players in working, in NYC, I don't think they'll care about total payroll, they'll still be rolling in money. if it isn't working, try and get the assets you can out of Amare but if not just straight dump him.

    Amare has the crazy, ridiculous contract. Melo's isn't exactly great either, for someone who is so polarizing.

    still, it is not a stretch to argue the contract overvalues Lin. It does.
     
  5. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    anyone know if they've already used the amnesty clause before, and how often the rules allow a team to do this?
     
  6. mazinger

    mazinger Member

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    Yeah, they've used their amnesty already. I don't remember the player's name though.
     
  7. trueroxfan

    trueroxfan Member

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    You can amnesty one contract if that player was under contract on your roster prior to the new CBA being signed. I don't believe they used theirs on anyone thus far.

    It expires in a certain year, but I don't think any contracts will still be ongoing by that time.
     
  8. rn_xw

    rn_xw Member

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    but caphold will be 8M instead of 14mil, so it's a expiring contract of 8M I think?
     
  9. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    Knicks used their clause on billups already so they cant amnesty amare. Theyd have to trade him to a team looking to dump salary or in the process of gutting its team. Seems like we have 4 or 5 of those every year or so especially when gms get pie in the sky dreams about big fas. Dont forget lebron gonna hit the market by then i think.
     
  10. tosweet68

    tosweet68 Member

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    The Knicks have already used their amnesty and even if they hadn't, they could not use it on Lin.
     
  11. jayhow92

    jayhow92 Member

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    Billups. It's how they got chandler.
     
  12. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    the actualy payments to Lins bank account go 5/5/15. but the caphold for what becomes a prorated contract if the knicks dont match (i.e we get Lin) then he becomes an 8MM expiring contract in yr 3. from my understanding haha
     
  13. dram1

    dram1 Member

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    They're not going to amnesty Amar'e...are you kidding? He may not be what he was before the injuries, but he is a hell of a lot better than 90% of players at his positon.

    If Lin averages 15pts/6ast...he is only slightly overpaid....that overage will get washed by his marketability and the revenue it will lead to. Having Lin helps the Rockets as an organzation stay financially healthy during a rebuilding period when teams generally struggle financially. This fact empowers the owner to give Morey to buy late 1st and 2nd round picks if players he really likes are available, i.e., Chase Budinger.

    Now I wonder why NY Knicks just don't offer Lin a different contract that is more cap friendly for them...like say 4yr/32M...only 8M would count against the cap.
     
  14. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Because the rules state that they could have only offered Lin $5m maximum in each of the first 2 years (Arenas clause).

    And the Knicks cannot offer Lin any deal now because they gave him the qualifying offer, which means they can match any deal given. They chose to wait until Lin signed an offer sheet, so now their problem is either (a) match the offer (and have him count 5/5/15 against their cap) or (b) let him go to Houston (where, thanks to the magic of the new CBA he would only count 8/8/8 against the cap).


    Even if the Knicks had originally offered him $32m (which they didn't) it would count something like 5/5/11/11 against their cap (not ideal).
     
  15. rocketman84

    rocketman84 Member

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    Some espn dude on the summer league game just stated that the Knicks would have to pay 52million in the third year
     
  16. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    I think he meant in lux tax.
     
  17. Steve_Francis_rules

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    Billups?
     
  18. juicystream

    juicystream Member

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    Would be $8M outgoing, but $15M incoming. I wouldn't call that an advantage for us.
     
  19. D12Eminem

    D12Eminem Member

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    Once during the new CBA
     
  20. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    Just read that if lin is waived before third year the cap hit is spread out evenly. Hopefully someone smarter than me can confirm this. If true this couls hurt our chances to get lin
     

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