[In-Depth] Analyzing the 2012 NBA Draft: Piecing Together Morey’s Draft Board

Oh wow his big draft board. Does this make him a genius to want these guys now? Oh and yes I wanted them too. I feel so much better now knowing at least he wanted them.

 

I wouldn't call him an apologist; I don't see him making excuses for failures. He just happens to understand and share Morey's logical and methodical vision. You sound like a religious zealot putting down an atheist because they present ideas backed by evidence that are at odds with your core beliefs. Of course, we don't know who is ultimately right, but I still have to see you put together any kind of coherent argument for anything.

 

Excellent post. Repped.

This is so much better than the mindless "oh look, things didn't work out, let's bash the rockets management" posts.

 

Unreal post. Thank you. Great Research.


Totally think the Mavs would have taken Royce at 17 which is why they passed on Zeller..

A little but of a bummer but oh well.. If Zeller would have gone to us at 18 this would literally be one of the greatest drafts of all time.

Still pretty stoaked about it...


Even thought I'm generally disappointed with how draft night went.. The Rox just got too much talent to be mad.

 

You are also assuming that those teams would just draft for need and not for the best player on their draft board. Also, I don't think Morey missed out on any of his guys by taking Lamb #12. I also think Lamb was a need position as well. Sure we have 2 established SGs, but Martin will be gone after this year and Lee is a RFA. I don't see any reason why the Rockets should have waited to pick Lamb.

Anyhow, I'm starting to warm to this draft the more I learn about Royce White. Lamb has some serious skills and Jones has a ton of potential as a rotation player.

 

imagine if the cats took robinson, the draftboard of other teams are screwed lol

 

Another thing to note:

Just because players like Royce and Jones are 15, 16ish on Morey's big board, doesn't mean they are the 15th, 16th talent-wise. I think Morey's big board is based on value, those players on his list are those who are potentially easy to trade to other teams, while players like Royce and Jones could end up as the best players in the entire draft based on talent. Because let's face it, who really thinks Barnes is better than Royce? Royce is a much more complete player. Royce also dominated MKG.

 

This is the second year now that Morey has shifted from high floor guys to high ceiling ones. Morris did not pan out, but in retrospect he was the right pick from an organizational philosophy standpoint over Kawhi Leonard because Leonard was a known quantity, where Morris had a chance to be something more.

Now we have a better idea of Morris' career trajectory, and if he doesn't show any flashes in summer league to justify us holding on we should feel completely free to cut ties by not exercising the last two years of his contract after this year. No biggie. Try again this year. With three guys in the same position, it feels like one should break through this time around.

 

First off, kudos on a really good thread, but one thing I think you are wrong about is Morey ranking Drummond over Lamb.

I’m pretty sure it would have been fairly easy for Morey to trade with the #8 Raptors in order to nab Drummond before the Pistons did. I’m almost positive that Ross would have been there at 12 (the Pistons wanted a big man, the Hornets were long rumored to love Rivers, and the Blazers wanted a center). Toronto would have gotten their guy at 12 AND picked up an additional asset from Houston (either the 18th pick or one of our players), so that would have been a no-brainer for them.

What I’m thinking is that Morey offered up other assets besides #12 (either just Lowry OR some combination of 16/18/other players) for #8. That way the Rockets would have gotten Lamb at #12 and also gotten Drummond who Morey wanted, but had ranked lower on his board. But Morey simply was not willing to sacrifice Lamb (who would have been gone by our 16th pick) in order to draft Drummond.

 

OP: Fantastic post. Thanks for the effort!

 

I believe Terrence Ross was higher than White on the Rockets big board. Feigen tweeted the Rockets would take Ross at the 16th pick then later explained that he messed up because he didn't realize that Ross had already been taken.

 

I agree definitely that morey is going high upside x probable rate of success. As long as the expected value is higher, he will go for that player. Because of the need to find an Allstar, he may be even not always going for expected value. Also I replied you earlier but great analysis - gives interesting insight. People like to complain about nothing happening but the reality is the chances of getting the 5th pick was maybe 10-25 percent. No other GM succeeded in moving up and it seems strange to blame morey for trying hard to do so and failing. Also rebuilding / retooling is all about optionality. You have 10 plans and as your more desirable ones fail you move to the next best ones. People who are unhappy that plans a, b and c don't work are wrongly placing blame on rockets. Also, how long we're the pacers bad? How long we're the celtics bad before they got their 3 stars? Same for the perennially bad teams. OK was good but they had a 2, 4 and 5 (?) pick three years in a row. We've had a 12 at best.

 

In my opinion I feel like the Rockets had Ross ahead of Lamb. I think Morey always makes it seem the guys he drafts should of went earlier and exaggerates how high he had Lamb on his board. I do believe he had Lamb high on his board but if he was able to move up to 7 or 8 I don't think he would of been drafting Lamb.

 

This actually shows Doc Rocket did have insider information.

"If you don't believe everything you hear...
Rely on faith."

"We are about to perceive something. Possibly something Heavenly...though it's NOT from the city of Angels.

Blow the damn thing up and gamble on the greatness of your draft pick(s). "


---> Some posters(including me) thought those are clear indications of us pursuing MKG(GilChrist-check some posts in that thread right after Doc Rockets' commets). Actually once MKG goes to #2, we may not want to trade up at all. Drummond may just be a smokescreen (at least not top5).

What's interesting is on basketball prospectus draft chat, the reaction of MKG goes to #2---"I can't believe MJ made the right pick". Also Hollinger's draft rater rank MKG at #3... You know the analytics gurus are consensusly high on MKG's potential(Cho is said to employ a similar approach to talent evaluation).

 

Agree. exelent read.
I couldn't understand why morey doesn't offer lowry + 12th for 8th to take drummond. Some people says that is because the raptors want Nash. but this ways sound better
morey doesn't want to gives the 12th.
I wonder if Lowry + 16 + taken calderon contract couldn't work?

 

Another thing about Feign's comment regarding we may pick Ross. We may take Ross but it may not be for us, so Ross may not rank high on our board just because Feign knows we try to pick him.

As soon as the rumor of us talking with Cavs about their #4 pick flying on twitter(we just got #12 at that point), we worked out Ross that night immediately. There're also rumors that Cavs are trying to trade #4 + Verajoa for #12 + KMart+filler only if we can secure Ross at #12 for them. So the Ross pick is for that trade to happen, then we can use #4 to pick MKG. Now the specific details is pure speculation on my part. But look at Doc Rockets comments below again:

"On a side note, I wanted Drummond, Moultrie, Lamb, but most of all, I wanted Terrence Ross. Why would I want Ross? It's weird! Oh well... Maybe in another universe, everything can happen differently and I can be happy! "

I think it's very likely we are aiming that trade, and Toronto may even know our Ross interest. So they took Ross in the hope of getting Lowry and more assets from us(I guess they don't know why we need Ross so it may backfired already). Well, this is quite a reach of speculation on my part, so I'll just stop here.

 

I don't necessarily have a problem with the concept of drafting the BPA outside of the top 10 picks. However, if you have an overload of players at a certain position (i.e. PF), and adjustment needs to be made for Best Trade Value Available (BTVA?). The following article lists the position we need the most (center) as the position most other teams need the most, and the position we need the least (power forward) as the position other teams need the least. In other words, we may be stuck with our glut of power forwards, given the current market, as power forwards are a dime a dozen:

http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/221830/Team_By_Team_Top_Position_Needs

We recently conducted team-by-team polls on RealGM to determine which position represents the greatest offseason need as we enter the draft and free agency.

There were 13 teams that voters indicated center was the greatest position of need, followed by eight teams needing upgrades at point guard, seven teams requiring a shooting guard and two teams where small forward is most important. Power forward didn't rank as the single most important position for any of the 30 teams.

Atlanta Hawks - Center
Boston Celtics - Center
Brooklyn Nets - Point Guard
Charlotte Bobcats - Center
Chicago Bulls - Shooting Guard
Cleveland Cavaliers - Shooting Guard
Dallas Mavericks - Point Guard
Denver Nuggets - Shooting Guard
Detroit Pistons - Center
Golden State Warriors - Small Forward
Houston Rockets - Center
Indiana Pacers - Point Guard
Los Angeles Clippers - Shooting Guard
Los Angeles Lakers - Point Guard
Memphis Grizzlies - Shooting Guard
Miami Heat - Center
Milwaukee Bucks - Center
Minnesota Timberwolves - Shooting Guard
New Orleans Hornets - Center
New York Knicks - Point Guard
Oklahoma City Thunder - Center
Orlando Magic - Center
Philadelphia 76ers - Center
Phoenix Suns - Point Guard
Portland Trail Blazers - Point Guard
Sacramento Kings - Center
San Antonio Spurs - Center
Toronto Raptors - Small Forward
Utah Jazz - Point Guard
Washington Wizards - Shooting Guard