Daryl Morey Talks Draft And Other Off-season Plans

We could end up with multiple picks in the first round (I liked the 16 to Boston for 21 and 22 idea), and we already have two, of course. If we actually keep our picks, you have to think we're moving some guys on the roster to clear some room.

 

OKC had a clear cut plan, we don't..... Morey is acquiring midround picks and veterans times and times again....
Just getting tired of this year 2 after Yao.... Yao was heavily injured during his last years, and they still didn't count those years in.

 

In Morey we RUST

 

Because the team was strapped with his contract. Morey says this in his interview.

 

In Rorey me MUST

 

Morey's plan has been the Boston plan. Acquire okay players. Trade okay players for good backups, draft picks, good starters. Trade draft picks, backups, starters for better draft picks and star players.

This last step is difficult. I was surprised max contracts survived the last CBA. Small market teams thought they would allow them to keep their stars, but all it has done is allow the glamour teams/cities to stockpile stars. When Houston had Hakeem, they were an attractive location. When Houston had Yao, McGrady in health, it looked like Houston would be an attractive situation.

He has not been successful at his plan. Very few NBA plans work.

 

And the one he is trying to execute has a much lower probability of success, which is strange that he chose that one being a numbers guy.

DD

 

What was that plan? So your saying it was Sam Presti's grand idea for the Seattle Sonics owner to have financial issue's and sell the team. Because thats the reason why they traded Ray Allen and did not sign Rashard Lewis long term. Which led to them being bad enough to draft Kevin Durant.

Dont get me wrong. Presti is a great GM, and has done a fantastic job rebuilding around their two young stars.

However, people need to remember the history behind how they ended up lucking out enough in the draft to get their star to build around. They did not trade Allen, and let go of Lewis because they were tanking for a draft pick. It was about $.

Any other situation and 99 GM's out of 100 would have done everything to keep their two stars in town before striping it down to rebuild through the draft. They were not tanking for a draft pick, they were tanking to ease the sell of the team, and to move the team out of Seattle to get the brand spanking new facility that they could not get in Seattle.

Also, what if the Thunder didn't luck out in the draft and took Oden instead? Would everyone still think Presti to be the great and power that he's made out to be now?

 

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: It's better to be lucky than good.

Daryl Morey is good.

Sam Presti is both.

 

Luck is when opportunity meets preperation.

You make your own luck.

DD

 

The main reason Boston made their allstar trades was because they had connections with their trading partners. Morey has nothing similar.

 

Im totally ok with people going ga ga over Sam Presti. He's a terrific young GM. However, I just want people to remember the history of events that took place right before Kevin Durant was drafted. This whole idea that it was his grand scheme to tank the team to get Kevin Durant is ridiculous.

And not to go on too much about the "luck vs opportunity" thing, but in life, business, whatever its usually about being pro-active and putting yourself in as many situations as possible to get lucky.

For example, if you never play the lottery then you will never win. The more tickets you buy the chances you have at winning, etc. Building a great NBA team requires some luck, but not as much as winning the lottery. If a team just tries to get lucky by being bad, then they are limiting themselves to one opportunity.

In my opinion, the Rockets continue to put themselves in as many situations as possible to get lucky other rather than just trying to lose games on purpose as the end all solution, which anyone who has read a post of mine knows my thoughts on.

The Rockets have had pretty bad luck since Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming broke down, but if they keep on putting themselves in as many situations as possible to get lucky then sooner or later the odds should favor them to start something positive. Im not holding out hope that its going to happen here and now.

Its a process that I enjoy keeping up with. If your sitting at home thinking this is it, this is when Morey is going to pull it off and form Houston's own big three, then your about as hopeless as someone that really thinks they are going to win the powerball tonight. Even if Morey did win the powerball and formed Houston's own big 3, Im sure some people on this board would still find something to b**** about anyways.

 

Morey would make a fine politician.

 

You could say the same thing about stalking

 

This is the kind of crap statement that has no facts behind it. The only fact behind it is DD thinks we should tank and we didn't so the plan sucks.

Please provide some statistical analysis for your plan with a higher probability for SUCKexcess.

I believe that DM is smarter than some guy who is delusional enough to believe that his way is the only way.

 

I didn't say mine was the only way, I am just saying that over the course of the NBA, trading for a Superstar is highly unlikely.

DD

 

Great post.

I think there's a tradeoff between the high draft pick value you sacrificed by not tanking, and the overall development of your current players by competing hard.

For example, If we intentionally tanked, Lowry wouldn't have developed so well that he's considered an near allstar level talent around the league(at least our record wouldn't generate that kind of discussion). In turn we wouldn't have an 'asset' worth about the 6th pick in this draft. In a certain way our strategy generated a #6 pick as if we tanked last season.

Another way to get high draft pick is by taking 'toxic contract' from other teams, and that requires the team to be smart about their cap space and careful when signing long term contracts of their own. Recently there're some rumors we are in trade talks involving this kind of strategy to acquire high picks. If it succeeds, it's as if we tanked last season.

I don't think there's a clear answer here, but a smart GM like Morey should be able to explore all the scenario's and make good decisions.

 

So true. It is much more likely that superstars are found in the draft, than traded. I'm pretty sure every superstar ever was drafted at one point in their career...whereas only a handful were obtained via trade.

 

LOL - that is funny.

How many times have superstars been traded after they become superstars?

Very few - I guess we could trade for an up and comer in the draft like Dirk or Kobe.....but getting a Shaq in his prime, is highly unlikely.

DD

 

There have been a few possibilities for our team the past few years (post Yao/Tracy problems):
1. Try to remain competitive. Fight for playoff spots. Fail to make playoffs. (This is our current trajectory.)
2. Try to remain competitive. Fight for playoff spots. Make playoffs! (Morey's plan.)
3. Tank. Suck for 3 years, draft a stud and then become a great team. (Tankers philosophy. Requires a lot of luck to be able to draft a franchise player. Many failures, very few successes.)
4. Tank. Suck it up for 5-8 years. Develop a losing culture. Get multiple low lottery picks but fail to get that gem of a player (The philosophy that tankers don't believe is a very real possibility. Look at the teams who are stuck in the lottery every year.)

#4 is more likely than #3 in my opinion if tanking is an option.