2012 NBA Draft Outlook with Dilworth Mock 1.0

its a long offseason and ive been amped for the draft for a while. just some of my thoughts of the Rockets going into draft night. sorry its long, hate if u want. just some in depth analysis from a fan. enjoy!!

2012 NBA Draft (Houston Rockets Outlook)

With only 10 days left until the NBA draft I have found myself spending more and more time evaluate this years crop and making my own predictions. This has led me to write this blog documenting what different possibilities could arrive on draft night for the Rockets, along with my first ever mock draft.

Draft Combine

Im glad the draft combine is finally getting some recognition in the NBA like in the NFL. There is valuable information to be had from these numbers. For Instance, who would u think would have the 2nd highest max vert. No, its not Harrison Barnes (UNC SF), Jeff Taylor (Vandy SF ), or Damian Lillard (Weber State PG). Its actually tied between Marquis Teague (Kentucky PG) and Miles Plumlee (Duke C).

This draft is full of one thing, athletes. In particular, something very rare, tall athletic white boys. Meyers Leonard (Vandy C) and Tyler Zeller (UNC C) are the tallest and second tallest respectively at the combine. With Plumlee being the 4th tallest player at 6’11.75” with shoes. Plumlee stands out amongst his crop of C’s this year, having the best times of agility and sprint. This going along with his max vert could make Plumlee one of the sure to be many steals of the draft, as he will go in the late 1st round.

The draft combine also had Barnes stand out from his SF rival in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky SF). Other combine winners were Andre Drummond (UCONN C), who despite being the second youngest player in the draft behind MKG, showed off very good verticals, as well as having the largest wingspan at the combine. He has been labeled as a no motor guy, but at the sweet young age of 18, the right coach could turn him into Dwight Howard.

Houston Rocket Draft Day Possibilities

I would like to first start off saying that I believe there is a big drop off on the Rockets draft board after the 6th player. The Rockets draft board should look like this: Anthony Davis (Kentucky PF/C), Andre Drummond, Thomas Robinson (Kansas PF), Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Bradley Beal (Florida SG). This doesn’t mean that if the Rockets are looking to trade up, they need to trade into a top 6 spot, but those are their top 6 players before there is a significant drop off. And the order of those players will be different for most teams in the league, besides the consensus #1 pick of Anthony Davis of course.

After an all-star snub last year Kyle Lowry is this teams biggest asset going into draft night. The teams who are looking for PG help and willing to trade down to get it are Sacramento at 5, Portland at 6, and Toronto at 8. The most likely trade scenario would be trading Kyle Lowry and the #16 pick for Portlands #6 pick. Portland is in desperate need of PG help. They have their best 3 players locked up to big deals and entering their prime, and they need a floor general to set the tempo. The skills of Wesley Mathews, Nicolas Batum, and LaMarcus Aldrige are good enough talent to be competitive, they just need a solid PG to put it all together. Lowry brings a great veteran presence, on perhaps the best non-rookie contract value in the NBA. Portland would have Kyle Lowry and the 16 pick to go along with their own #10 pick. Between the 10 and 16 they are sure to grab the starting center they desire without reaching to fill another need.

In return the Rockets will take whichever player remains from their board at pick 6. Best case scenario for the Rockets, would be if Andre Drummond falls to 6. He is exactly what they have been looking for, for the last 5 years. An athletic, tall, long center, with shot blocking ability. Raw offensively but what big man isn’t. Has drawn many comparisons to Dwight Howard on many fronts. Despite being about the same age come draft night, Drummonds body is much more mature than the high school Dwight Howard. Much like Howard, Drummonds motor is a concern. But the kid is the second youngest player in the draft, behind MKG. The right coach could turn him into the Howard we know now, who is a work out machine. Drummond could potentially be a Howard, or a Cousins, or maybe a Kwayme Brown. Time will tell, but like I said before, if theres a time to swing for the fences, the rockets have been there for 3 years, and need to go on upside, not value.

Drummond would be my top pick, but if any of those top 6 are on the board you have to scoop them up. MKG is just a great kid with an unbelievable motor, he is 6’7.5” at 18 years old, and could grow even more. You could slide Chandler Parsons to 2 or MKG at 2, considering Parsons can effectively guard 1-3’s as he proved last year. This also would make Barnes a terrific pick as well, with his amazing athleticism and all around skills. At 6’8” pairing him with Parsons on the wing would be a defensive nightmare for opposing wings. This would also allow you to go after an offensive center later in the draft by being able to go big on the wings, you wouldn’t need a dominant rebounder. Your starting back court and wings would be 6’3’, 6’9”, and 6’8”, very reminiscent of the Pacers team who showed how important length was by playing the at least 6’9” Paul George at the 2 guard. Brandon Beal would fit as an elite scorer at two. Has drawn many comparisons to Eric Gordon. Since he is small, I would only like this pick if he is the defender that Eric Gordon is.

Another interesting trade option would be Toronto at 8. Out of the top 6 players on the Rockets draft board, only 1 of them has a realistic chance of slipping this far, and that is Drummond. His motor has people worried. His stock is also interesting. He could go between 2-5, but not 6-7. If Portland does not trade out of the 6th spot they will take Damian Lillard. And Golden state with David Lee and Bogut do not want to take the risk of Drummond, and will go with the safest pick on their draft board. This means that if Drummond is still on the board after Sacramento’s pick, you can then go after Toronto’s pick with a lesser offer than that to Portland. Toronto needs help just about everywhere. It would b possible to get that pick for Kyle Lowry, with a trade down pick, somewhere around 20, and maybe a filler. The Rockets could trade down from 16 and grab the two celtic picks, at 21 and 22 for some flexibility. With these picks the Rockets could then trade Lowry + 21st pick + if necessary a Patterson or Morris guy for Toronto’s 8th pick. Also a possibility to load up on a mix of veteran and young talent to try n swing that deal by sending a Scola + Morris + 21st pick. there are two PGs that will go at pick 20+ Kendal Marshall (UNC) and Marquis Teague (Kentucky). Either way, we land Drummond at 8, while keeping the 14/16 pick and 22. With adding depth to our frontcourt, and Montajunous coming over next year, the next picks should b at 1-3 positions. With the 14/16 pick in descending order of want: Perry Jones Baylor SF/PF), Austin Rivers (Duke SG), Terrance Jones (Kentucky SF/PF), and Terrance Ross (Washington SG). This pick will be depending on who fell from our draft board, and depending on if we want to go big in our lineup or not.

The most unrealistic scenario would b a megadeal for Dwight Howard. We have pieces to maybe pull it off, but it would basically b half of our team, picks, and taking on Hedo’s contract. Im not going to go into it any more than that. Very unlikely, but still a possibility.

Mock Draft V 1.0

1. New Orleans Hornets – Anthony Davis, PF/C, Kentucky

Complete no brainer here.

2. Charlotte Bobcats – Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Since there are no more franchise players in the draft, the bobcats will go with a player who could b an all-star, and doesn’t need help around him to be good. Cant get a swing and miss with Drummond, while Barnes and MKG are more complimentary players.

3. Washington Wizards – Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

Somewhat of a surprise pick over MKG, but Wizards really need to put an elite scorer next to John Wall, so he can focus on facilitating and becoming a better all around player.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky, SF

Cleveland gets a great wing player next to Kyrie, they will be 20 and 19 years old at the beginning of next year. Two amazing work ethics from very young kids will set the tone for the Cavs to have a very strong team for years to come.

5. Sacramento Kings – Harrison Barnes, SF, UNC

Makes Evans expendable if they believe Thomas is the answer at PG. if not they can move Thomas to the bench, where he is destined in the long run. Kings get a versatile wing, who can knock down the 3. Giving the Kings a dynamic back court even more help.

6. Portland Trailblazers – Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State

Portland gets the best point guard in the draft, and is their biggest need. As long as he keeps up his sharing ways, he will be a good fit.

7. Golden State Warriors – Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

Sullinger gives then possibly the most NBA ready big, with a polished offense. Sullinger will eat up second unit PF’s and be a great bench scorer. Also gives the Warriors some flexibility in case the oft-injured Bogut gets hurt next season.

8. Toronto Raptors – Jeremy Lamb, SG, UCONN

Derozan has been given the time, but hasn’t shown enough consistency to be a lock at SG long term. Derozan could shift to the SF position with Lamb joining. The Raptors fans need something to get excited about, and Jeremy Lamb last year was projected to b a top 5 pick, the talent is there, and he could be a steal because of UCONN’s tough year.

9. Detroit Pistons – Andre Drummond, C, UCONN

Pistons can’t pass up the opportunity of having the size of Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond together. A bit of a risk, but for a franchise that is tied down by multiple bad contracts, trying to hit a homerun is worth it at this point.

10. New Orleans Hornets – Tony Wrotten Jr., PG, Washington

Wrotten Jr paired up with Davis will give Hornets fans plenty to be excited about in the upcoming seasons. It’s always smart to pair your superstar with a young point guard. Parker to Duncan and more recently Westbrook to Durant.

11. Portland Trailblazers – Meyers Leonard, C, Illinios

Portland needs a 7 footer of the future. Leonard could be it. The tallest player in this years draft, athletic and runs the floor well. Fits in perfectly with established starters entering their prime in, Mathews, Batum, and Aldridge. With previous pick Damian Lillard running the point, this will be a dangerous team… on paper.

12. Milwaukee Bucks – Tyler Zeller, C, UNC

After Bogut’s departure, they are looking to fill the paint, and Zeller is the most NBA ready center with a projectable output in the NBA game.

13. Phoenix Suns - Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Reports are saying that Waiters’ draft day promise is from Phoenix. Small SG, but able to create for himself and could be an elite scorer. And he doesn’t play defense, so he will fit right in with the Suns.

14. Houston Rockets – Perry Jones III, PF/SF, Baylor

A top 5 talent in this draft. Scouts question the motor, even moreso than Drummond. Houston is in a situation where they don’t even have room for more good role players on the roster. They need to swing for the fences with both 1st round picks. Jones might have the biggest upside for draft position in the entire draft. Potentially the biggest steal in the draft.

15. Philadelphia ‘76ers - Arnette Moultrie, PF, Miss St.

With the 76ers primed for a few more playoff runs, they need to sure up a backup to the veteran Brand. Cutting down his minutes with a quality back up will help out the 76ers down the stretch, where they collapsed last year.

16. Houston Rockets – Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

Rivers had a disappointing year for Duke fans, but his game is not for the college ranks. With his slashing, and one on one ability to create, with college defenses being allowed to pack the paint, his finishing at the rim took a toll. Martin has fallen out of favor with McHale, and Houston has shown loyalty to its coach. Lee is more suited to be a 6th man, which would allow Rivers to share the primary scoring role with Scola. Being a small guard he does have defensive liabilities, but with Dragic the probable starter, they can switch defensively depending on matchups.

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many people have wroten jr as the second best pg in the draft. and it all depends on team needs. NO has ariza on a big contract and wont draft a 3 bc of that. front court is pretty much set. they will match any offer gordon gets. jack is not a starting pg in this league. an explosive, large pg to match with Davis would b appealing to them.

The sullinger red flag just went up today. and saw it after i wrote this up. agreed he will probably free fall much like Blair did, but will still go in the first round. There was alot of talk as sully being the Warriors guy if only drummond was left from the big 6. next best pf's would b henson, Perry Jones, but those are reaches. with the Sully red flag, id say their pick would become meyers Leonard